NEW YORK, January 4, 2026, 13:55 ET — Market closed
- OPEC+ kept oil output steady on Sunday and set its next meeting for Feb. 1.
- U.S. energy shares started 2026 higher, even as crude prices remain under pressure.
- Traders are watching crude’s next move, U.S. inventory data on Jan. 7 and early earnings from oilfield services.
OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged on Sunday after a brief meeting, reaffirming a plan by eight key members to pause production increases — meaning no additional barrels — through March, the group said. It will meet again on Feb. 1, as the oil market digests political shocks from Yemen to Venezuela. “Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. Reuters
That backdrop matters for energy stocks because the sector entered 2026 with early momentum. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) — an exchange-traded fund that tracks S&P 500 energy companies — rose 2.1% on Friday to $45.65, after trading between $44.49 and $45.78, while the S&P 500 gained 0.2%.
Crude has not followed the same script so far. Brent futures settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel on Friday and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased 10 cents to $57.32; Brent is the global benchmark and WTI is the main U.S. grade. Both benchmarks ended 2025 down nearly 20%, as traders weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks, analysts said.
Big U.S. energy names still ran higher on Friday. Exxon Mobil rose about 1.9% and Chevron gained roughly 2.3%, while oilfield-services provider SLB added about 4.8% — companies that tend to benefit when producers spend more on drilling and well work.
Venezuela is the wild card investors are trying to price, but the timeline looks long. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that major U.S. oil companies would spend billions to restore Venezuelan output after Nicolás Maduro was captured and removed by U.S. forces, while Chevron said it was focused on employee safety and asset integrity and would comply with relevant laws. Analysts cited by Reuters said rebuilding the industry would require years and heavy investment, with a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil still in place.
Outside the U.S., energy-linked shares started the week with a cautious tone. In Riyadh trading on Sunday, Saudi Aramco fell 1.6% as Gulf markets slipped on weak oil prices, according to Reuters.
The next near-term catalyst is U.S. inventory data. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report — closely watched for changes in stored crude and fuel that can move prices — is typically released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesdays, and the agency has flagged Jan. 7 for the rollout of a new information release system for the report.
Earnings will also start filtering into the picture. SLB said it will issue fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results at 7:00 a.m. ET on Jan. 23, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET — an early read on upstream spending and service pricing.
But the sector’s early bounce has a clear downside scenario: if crude extends last year’s slide on persistent oversupply, energy shares can lose their bid quickly, especially after a strong first session of the year. Chart watchers will also focus on whether XLE holds above the $44.50 area from Friday’s low and whether it can push through the $45.80 zone near Friday’s high — levels traders often use as reference points for buying or selling.
The market’s next tell comes when oil futures resume trading later Sunday and when U.S. equities reopen on Monday, Jan. 5. After that, attention turns to the EIA report on Jan. 7, SLB’s results on Jan. 23 and OPEC+’s next policy meeting on Feb. 1.
