NEW YORK, December 31, 2025, 14:11 ET — Regular session.
- Exxon Mobil shares were down about 0.6% in afternoon trading as crude prices drifted lower.
- A U.S. government report showed a draw in crude inventories but big builds in gasoline and diesel stocks, clouding the near-term demand picture.
- Investors are watching the Jan. 4 OPEC+ meeting and late-January corporate earnings for fresh direction.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares edged lower on Wednesday, down 0.6% at $120.22 in afternoon trade, after moving between $119.87 and $121.49.
The muted move still mattered on the final trading day of the year, with oil prices on track for their steepest annual decline since 2020 and investors recalibrating expectations for 2026 cash flow across the sector.
For integrated oil majors like Exxon, small changes in crude prices and refinery profitability can swing sentiment quickly, especially in holiday-thinned trading when liquidity is lighter.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, was hovering near $61 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was around $58, Reuters reported. Oil is headed for a drop of more than 15% in 2025 as oversupply worries built, even amid geopolitical risk, and the OPEC+ producer group is due to meet on Jan. 4. Reuters also cited a BNP Paribas forecast for Brent to dip to $55 a barrel in the first quarter before recovering to around $60 for the rest of 2026. 1
In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, but gasoline stocks rose by 5.8 million barrels and distillate stockpiles — which include diesel and heating oil — climbed 5 million barrels. “Year-end numbers tend to be distorted … less meaningful,” said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests, pointing to ad valorem taxes — levies tied to inventory value — that can prompt companies to reduce stored crude at year-end. 2
For Exxon, those crosscurrents are key because it produces oil and gas and also runs large refining and fuels businesses. Refining margins — the gap between fuel prices and crude costs — help determine whether lower crude is a tailwind or a headwind for downstream earnings.
Other oil majors were also mixed to lower. Chevron was little changed, while U.S.-listed shares of Shell and BP fell about 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.
Traders are likely to keep focusing on whether post-holiday fuel demand holds up, with weekly inventory data and refinery utilization offering near-term signals for both crude and product markets.
Rates remain another variable. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27-28, and investors currently expect the central bank to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, Reuters reported. 3
Exxon has leaned on long-cycle, low-cost developments and efficiency efforts to support returns through commodity swings. The company said this month it raised its 2030 plan, targeting $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 through 2030 without increasing capital spending. 4
On the calendar, earnings are the next major Exxon-specific catalyst. Earnings calendars on Yahoo Finance list Exxon as expected to report fourth-quarter results on Jan. 30, before the market opens. 5
With U.S. markets closed on New Year’s Day, investors heading into the close were watching oil’s year-end settle and the demand signals embedded in fuel inventories for clues on how energy shares may start 2026.
