As of 2:35 a.m. ET in New York on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock exchanges are closed for the weekend. [1]
That matters for Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) because the next meaningful price discovery won’t happen until the next NYSE core session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET)—with energy shares likely taking cues from oil prices, year-end liquidity, and the latest macro headlines. [2]
Below is a timely, investor-focused breakdown of where XOM stands now, the news and fundamentals driving the stock, what analysts are forecasting, and the key things to know before the next trading session.
Exxon Mobil stock price today: where XOM closed and what the tape is saying
Exxon shares ended Friday’s session (Dec. 26, 2025) around $119, after a quiet, low-volume, post-holiday market day. [3]
Market data for Friday shows XOM trading roughly within a tight intraday range near $118.5–$119.6, consistent with a market that’s “open” on the calendar but psychologically still in holiday mode. [4]
Zooming out just slightly, Exxon has been steady-to-firm over the past week (roughly a low-single-digit move), even as crude oil has been under pressure heading into year-end. [5]
The bigger backdrop: a “Santa Claus rally” in stocks meets a slump in crude
Friday’s broader market action was almost comically muted: the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq slipped only fractionally, following a short rally into the holiday period. Reuters described it as a low-catalyst session where markets were essentially “catching their breath.” [6]
Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick framed it plainly: after a strong run, the market may just be pausing—while traders watch the “Santa Claus rally” window that spans the last trading days of the year and the first two of the next. [7]
Energy investors, though, have a second scoreboard: oil.
On Friday, WTI and Brent settled sharply lower. Reuters reported:
- Brent settled near $60.64/bbl
- WTI settled near $56.74/bbl
- Both benchmarks are on track for steep annual declines (Reuters cited roughly -19% Brent and -21% WTI year-to-date), with the market weighing a potential supply glut. [8]
One quote that captures the current oil mood came from Aegis Hedging, cited by Reuters: geopolitical premiums may support prices near-term, but they haven’t changed the oversupply narrative. [9]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reinforced that oversupply concern. In its December 2025 Oil Market Report, the IEA highlighted demand growth but also pointed to a market that could be swimming in barrels as supply rises. [10]
Why this matters for XOM: Exxon is a global integrated major (upstream + refining + chemicals). Lower crude prices can pressure upstream profits, while refining margins and downstream dynamics can partially offset—but not always, and not evenly across quarters. [11]
The headline driver for Exxon: a bigger 2030 plan and a clear “returns” message
One of the most market-moving Exxon headlines this month came on December 9, 2025, when Exxon raised its corporate plan through 2030, outlining bigger earnings and cash-flow ambitions—without increasing capital spending versus prior guidance. [12]
What Exxon said (and why markets care)
In its plan update, Exxon said it now expects by 2030:
- $25 billion in earnings growth vs. 2024 (constant price/margin basis)
- $35 billion in cash flow growth vs. 2024 (constant price/margin basis)
- About $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 (under its planning assumptions)
- Continued emphasis on share repurchases (including the pace it’s been signaling) [13]
Chairman and CEO Darren Woods positioned it as a transformation story—leaning into scale, cost structure, and advantaged assets. [14]
Reuters reported that Exxon’s updated outlook represented a step up from its previous plan and included a higher production trajectory into 2030, anchored by Guyana and the Permian Basin. [15]
Buybacks: the market’s favorite four-letter word (when cash flows allow)
Exxon’s plan update also reiterated the company’s intent to keep shareholder returns front and center—specifically noting it’s on track to repurchase about $20 billion of shares this year and aims to maintain that pace through 2026, assuming “reasonable market conditions.” [16]
For investors, that’s the key framing: in a world where oil can drop fast, Exxon is effectively arguing it can still produce strong per-share results through portfolio mix (advantaged barrels) and cost/capital discipline. [17]
Operations and growth: Guyana + Permian remain the center of gravity
If you want the simplest “why Exxon” bull case, it’s usually some version of: advantaged upstream growth + disciplined spending + shareholder returns.
Exxon itself keeps pointing to the same two engines:
Guyana: long runway, expanding project slate
In September 2025, Exxon said it made a final investment decision on Hammerhead, described as the seventh development on Guyana’s Stabroek Block, designed around an FPSO with capacity of about 150,000 barrels per day, with start-up expected in 2029. [18]
In Exxon’s third-quarter results commentary, Woods also highlighted Guyana production records (including quarterly production surpassing 700,000 bpd) and cited early startup execution on key developments. [19]
Permian: record production and “synergy math” from Pioneer
Exxon’s Q3 2025 materials pointed to Permian production near 1.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day and emphasized proprietary technologies aimed at improving recoveries (including a cited ~20% recovery improvement tied to lightweight proppant in certain applications). [20]
In its 2030 plan update, Exxon also discussed Pioneer integration and raised synergy expectations (a detail that has mattered to “show me the integration” investors). [21]
Exxon’s latest reported results: what the company said about earnings, cash flow, and dividends
Exxon’s third-quarter 2025 release reported:
- $7.5 billion in earnings
- $14.8 billion cash flow from operations
- $9.4 billion in shareholder distributions for the quarter (dividends + buybacks) [22]
The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share payable in December (based on that release). [23]
For dividend-focused investors, Exxon highlighted its long dividend growth streak (the company describes 43 consecutive years of annual dividend-per-share increases). [24]
Key risks and wildcards investors are tracking right now
Even “boring” mega-caps come with real risk—especially when commodities, geopolitics, and regulation collide.
1) Oil prices and the oversupply narrative
Oil’s year-end selloff has been driven by worries about too much supply relative to demand. Reuters pointed to IEA figures suggesting global supply could exceed demand by about 3.84 million barrels/day, keeping pressure on crude unless OPEC+ or non-OPEC supply adjusts more sharply. [25]
Translation for XOM: Exxon can be operationally excellent and still see earnings compress if crude stays low enough for long enough. [26]
2) Geopolitics and Russia-related complexity (Sakhalin-1)
Reuters reported Russia extended the deadline for the sale of Exxon’s stake in Sakhalin-1 to January 1, 2027, and noted Exxon previously took a $4.6 billion impairment on its stake after exiting Russia in 2022. [27]
This is not a day-to-day trading driver for most investors—but it’s a reminder that geopolitical exposures can linger on balance sheets and in long-tail outcomes.
3) Regulatory and legal headlines (climate disclosure fight)
In late October, Reuters reported Exxon sued California over climate disclosure laws, arguing (among other points) that the laws violate First Amendment rights and compel contested narratives about emissions and risk. [28]
These cases can take time, but they matter because they can affect compliance cost, disclosure burden, and reputational risk—especially for a stock that sits in many index and ESG-screened portfolios.
4) Energy transition economics: hydrogen pause, CCS progress
In November, Reuters reported Exxon froze plans for a major hydrogen project amid weak customer demand and unfavorable economics, with Woods citing cost and lack of committed customers. [29]
At the same time, Exxon continues to push carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a core pathway. For example, the U.S. EPA announced issuance of Class VI permits tied to Exxon’s Rose carbon storage project in Texas—an important regulatory step for CCS development. [30]
For investors, the takeaway is nuanced: “low-carbon” can be both an opportunity and a capital-allocation trap, and Exxon appears to be prioritizing projects with clearer commercial pathways.
Wall Street forecasts for XOM: price targets and what they imply
Analyst price targets vary (and can change quickly), but current consensus trackers generally cluster around a low-double-digit implied upside from recent levels.
For example:
- MarketBeat shows an average analyst price target around the high $120s, with a reported range roughly $105 to $158 (methodology depends on the analysts included). [31]
- TipRanks similarly aggregates targets in the low $130s on average, with a high-end target near $158 in its dataset. [32]
- TradingView’s forecast page reports a comparable consensus neighborhood (again dependent on included sources). [33]
Two practical notes for readers:
- These are aggregations, not a single “official” forecast. Different platforms count different analysts and time windows.
- For integrated oil majors, targets often hinge on commodity assumptions—and crude assumptions can be wrong in exciting new ways.
If you’re holding or watching XOM: what to know before the next session opens
Because it’s Saturday in New York right now, here are the most relevant “ahead of Monday” items for Exxon investors:
Watch oil first, then Exxon
If crude continues to slide—or snaps back on geopolitical headlines—XOM will likely react, even if company-specific news is quiet. The market is currently laser-focused on oversupply projections and year-end demand signals. [34]
Expect thinner liquidity into year-end
Reuters noted holiday trading conditions and light volumes. Thin markets can magnify moves (up or down) and make breakouts look more dramatic than they are. [35]
Know the next big “calendar” catalysts
- Next earnings date: multiple market calendars estimate Exxon’s next report around January 30, 2026 (these are estimates until the company confirms). [36]
- Dividend rhythm: Exxon’s last declared quarterly dividend was $1.03 (per its Q3 release). Future ex-dividend/pay dates are typically published later; some dividend calendars estimate an early-2026 schedule, but investors should confirm via official company updates when declared. [37]
Be aware of NYSE hours and holiday structure
The NYSE’s core session remains 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET on trading days, with the exchange closed on weekends. [38]
The bottom line on Exxon Mobil stock going into next week
Exxon (XOM) is heading into the next session with three big forces tugging at the stock:
- Oil price gravity: crude is down hard into year-end, and oversupply fears are back in the driver’s seat. [39]
- Company-specific confidence: Exxon has raised its 2030 outlook and continues to emphasize advantaged production growth (Guyana + Permian) alongside buybacks. [40]
- Headline risk: Russia-related legacy issues, climate disclosure litigation, and energy-transition economics can inject volatility even when the core business is executing well. [41]
For investors, Monday’s question is less “what did Exxon do over the weekend?” and more “what did oil—and the broader market mood—decide to do with Exxon?”
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.iea.org, 11. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 12. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 13. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 14. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 17. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 18. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 19. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 20. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 21. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 22. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 23. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 24. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.epa.gov, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 38. www.nyse.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 41. www.reuters.com
