Date: December 20, 2025
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with a familiar mix of forces shaping its share price: weakening crude prices, a heavy focus on low-cost production growth (especially the Permian Basin and Guyana), and investors’ ongoing appetite for dividends and buybacks.
XOM last closed at $116.69 on Friday, December 19, 2025 (markets were closed Saturday), finishing slightly higher on the day after a choppy week of trading. [1]
What’s new—and why it matters for Exxon stock right now—is that the company has raised its 2030 corporate plan targets while simultaneously leaning harder into “advantaged” oil and gas and tightening the pace of some low-carbon spending, a pivot that has real implications for earnings durability and shareholder returns if crude stays lower for longer. [2]
What’s moving Exxon Mobil stock on December 20, 2025
Several major headlines and themes are dominating investor conversations around Exxon Mobil stock (XOM) this week:
1) Oil prices are under pressure—again
Oil ended the week still hovering near multi-year lows, with Brent settling at about $60.47/bbl and WTI around $56.66/bbl on December 19, according to Reuters. [3]
Reuters commentary and market reporting point to rising supply concerns, including a growing volume of crude “on the water” and forecasts of a potential 2026 supply overhang. [4]
Why this matters for XOM stock: even best-in-class operators feel the gravity of crude prices—especially when the market starts debating whether buybacks across “Big Oil” can remain as generous as they’ve been since 2022.
2) Exxon upgraded its 2030 plan—with no capex increase
On December 9, Exxon updated its plan through 2030, raising its targets for earnings and cash flow growth versus 2024 on a constant price and margin basis. [5]
This plan upgrade is a key reason Exxon has held investor attention despite softer commodities.
3) A new CFO is coming in early 2026
Exxon disclosed that CFO Kathy Mikells will retire effective February 1, 2026, and Neil Hansen (currently president of global business solutions) will succeed her, according to Reuters and company filings. [6]
Leadership continuity matters for Exxon because the stock’s bull case often rests on capital discipline and consistent payout execution.
4) Exxon is circling major international assets tied to Lukoil
Multiple Reuters exclusives in December suggest Exxon is exploring opportunities connected to sanctioned Russian oil major Lukoil’s international portfolio, including interest in Lukoil’s majority stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield and participation in the broader race for Lukoil’s global assets. [7]
This is potentially material—but also politically complex—because U.S. sanctions and licensing timelines could determine what deals (if any) can actually close.
5) Analysts keep updating price targets—and the range is wide
In December, multiple analyst notes and target changes lifted the conversation back to valuation and upside scenarios for XOM—especially after the corporate plan update. [8]
At the same time, not all commentary is bullish: a Seeking Alpha contributor published a December 20 piece arguing the company is strong but the stock may be range-bound, downgrading their view. [9]
Exxon’s 2030 plan: the company forecast investors are keying on
Exxon’s December 9, 2025 plan update is the centerpiece for most near-term “forecast” coverage of Exxon Mobil stock because it defines management’s roadmap for production, costs, and capital returns through 2030.
Higher earnings and cash flow targets—at constant prices
Exxon says it now expects by 2030:
- $25 billion in earnings growth vs. 2024 (constant prices and margins)
- $35 billion in cash flow growth vs. 2024 (constant prices and margins)
- Return on capital employed (ROCE) above 17%
- ~$145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 “real Brent” (per the company’s assumptions) [10]
This matters for XOM stock because it reframes the debate from “What’s oil doing next quarter?” to “How much resilient cash can Exxon produce across cycles—then return per share via repurchases?”
Capex discipline remains part of the story
According to the plan update and Reuters coverage, Exxon’s capital spending outlook remains in a defined band, including:
- Cash capex of $27–$29B in 2026
- $28–$32B per year from 2027–2030 [11]
Investors generally like this setup: Exxon is promising more output and higher earnings power while holding a relatively tight capex range.
Upstream growth: 5.5 million boe/d by 2030, led by “advantaged assets”
Exxon’s plan calls for:
- 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day (boe/d) by 2030
- ~65% of volumes from “advantaged assets” (notably the Permian, Guyana, and LNG) [12]
The Permian is central. Reuters reports Exxon plans to grow Permian production to 2.5 million boe/d by 2030, and Exxon has highlighted how technology (including AI and proprietary drilling techniques) is intended to lower costs and lift recoveries. [13]
Pioneer integration: synergies now expected to be $4B annually
One of the most striking datapoints in Exxon’s plan materials: the company now expects Pioneer synergies of $4 billion annually, “double initial estimates.” [14]
For Exxon stock, this is a big lever: synergies are among the cleanest paths to earnings growth that don’t rely on higher oil prices.
Cost savings: $20B structural cost reduction goal
Exxon increased its cumulative structural cost savings plan to $20 billion vs. 2019, according to its plan update and Reuters coverage. [15]
That supports the “Exxon can endure lower-for-longer crude” narrative that many long-only investors want in a mega-cap energy holding.
Low-carbon investment: Exxon tightens the pace, links growth to policy and returns
Another December theme is Exxon’s recalibration of low-carbon spending.
S&P Global reported Exxon plans around $20 billion in lower-emission investments between 2025 and 2030, and indicated future low-carbon capital deployment will depend on policy support, permitting, market formation, and returns. [16]
The Financial Times similarly reported Exxon cut its low-carbon investment plan (from $30B to $20B over five years) and said the company abandoned a $7B hydrogen project in Baytown, Texas, citing weak demand. [17]
Why this matters for XOM stock:
- For some investors, it signals discipline—fewer “moonshots,” more focus on high-return hydrocarbons and proven cash generation.
- For others, it increases ESG and transition risk narratives, particularly if policy or investor preferences swing more sharply back toward decarbonization requirements.
The latest earnings signal: what Q3 2025 said about cash returns
Exxon’s most recent quarterly results (Q3 2025) still inform how investors think about the dividend and buybacks heading into 2026.
Reuters reported Exxon:
- Beat profit estimates with adjusted earnings of $1.88 per share
- Lifted the quarterly dividend by 4% to $1.03 per share
- Remained on track for $20B in share repurchases for the year
- Reported $510M in restructuring costs in the quarter [18]
From a stock perspective, this is the core “total return” setup: Exxon is trying to pair production growth with steady cash returns, while taking out structural costs.
Exxon Mobil stock forecast: what analysts are projecting now
“Forecast” coverage for XOM in December 2025 has centered on price targets, rating mixes, and the implied upside from a mid-$110s share price.
Consensus price targets cluster around the low-$130s
Several widely tracked consensus compilations place Exxon’s 12‑month target in roughly the same neighborhood:
- MarketBeat: average target around $129 (with a range shown roughly from low-$100s to high-$150s) [19]
- StockAnalysis: target around $130.74 (consensus rating shown as Buy) [20]
- Investing.com: average target around $131.56, high $158, low $109 [21]
Taken together, the “street” base case still implies single-digit to low‑teens upside—but with meaningful disagreement about what oil prices and refining margins will do next.
Notable recent price target changes
A few high-profile target notes referenced in December coverage include:
- Wells Fargo raised its target to $158 (maintaining Overweight), citing Exxon’s corporate plan update and higher upstream earnings power outlook. [22]
- TD Cowen raised its target to $135, referencing an improved Permian outlook (per Investing.com’s analyst ratings coverage). [23]
- Piper Sandler raised its target to $144 (via a TipRanks note carried by Yahoo Finance). [24]
Why forecasts diverge: oil, not effort
The wide spread between the low and high price targets isn’t really about whether Exxon can execute—it’s about whether the market believes crude prices stay depressed.
Reuters coverage this fall highlighted how many oil majors’ payout levels become harder to sustain when oil prices fall significantly, with some analyst work suggesting $80+ crude is often associated with sustaining peak buybacks and dividends across the sector. [25]
That creates a push-pull for Exxon stock:
- Exxon’s low-cost assets and cost cutting can protect cash flow, but
- the stock’s multiple expansion and buyback “turbo” still depend on the commodity tape.
The macro backdrop for XOM stock: why oil under $60 changes the narrative
On December 19, Reuters reported Brent and WTI settled around $60 and $56, respectively, amid headlines tied to Russia-Ukraine peace expectations and U.S. actions involving Venezuela—while also noting weakening gasoline cracks and broader uncertainty. [26]
Meanwhile, Reuters commentary emphasized that a key driver may simply be oversupply, citing Kpler’s estimate of 1.3 billion barrels of “oil on water” and noting the International Energy Agency forecast that 2026 supply could exceed demand by 3.85 million bpd. [27]
For Exxon Mobil stock, that environment tends to do three things:
- Raises the bar for multiple expansion
- Makes “execution” stories (Permian efficiency, Guyana uptime, integration synergies) more important
- Keeps the market laser-focused on whether buybacks remain as large as promised
Exxon’s deal watch: Lukoil assets and Iraq’s West Qurna 2
One of the more surprising December storylines around Exxon is potential overseas expansion tied to sanctioned Russian assets.
Reuters reported on December 2 that Exxon approached Iraq’s oil ministry to express interest in buying Lukoil’s 75% operating stake in West Qurna 2, one of the world’s largest oilfields, with output around 470,000 bpd—about 9% of Iraq’s total output by Reuters’ reporting. [28]
Separate Reuters reporting in mid‑December said Exxon remains among bidders competing for Lukoil’s broader international portfolio (valued around $22B by Reuters sources), after the U.S. Treasury rejected one bid structure and as other bidders jostle for position under shifting deadlines and licensing constraints. [29]
For XOM stock, this is a “high optionality, high complexity” theme:
- If Exxon lands high-quality assets at the right price, it can add long-lived cash flow.
- But geopolitical, sanctions, and execution risks can also create headline volatility with uncertain payoff timing.
A quieter but important catalyst: midstream capacity for the Permian
Exxon’s growth isn’t just about drilling—it’s also about moving molecules.
Reuters reported Enterprise Products Partners said Exxon will buy a 40% stake in the Bahia NGL pipeline, reimbursing about $650M for its share of costs to date, and helping expand capacity to 1 million bpd after closing (expected by early 2026). [30]
That fits Exxon’s broader “scale + integration” strategy in the Permian, where liquids, gas, and NGL volumes all need takeaway and processing.
Bull case vs. bear case for Exxon Mobil stock in 2026
The bull case for XOM
- Exxon executes its upgraded plan: Permian growth, Guyana ramp, LNG expansion, and Pioneer synergies translating into per-share cash flow. [31]
- Oil prices stabilize (or rebound), easing pressure on sector-wide payouts and supporting valuation.
- Buybacks continue near the planned pace, tightening share count and boosting per-share metrics. [32]
The bear case for XOM
- Oil remains stuck near (or below) current levels as oversupply concerns intensify, compressing upstream realizations and limiting the stock’s upside. [33]
- Refining margins stay soft (or weaken further), reducing the counterbalance to upstream volatility. [34]
- Headline risks rise: geopolitical deal complexity (Lukoil assets), policy/litigation pressures, or cost inflation impact the market’s confidence in longer-term cash flow quality. [35]
What to watch next for Exxon stock investors
Heading into early 2026, these are the practical “checkpoints” most likely to influence XOM’s direction:
- Oil price trend and 2026 supply/demand expectations, including how quickly any glut signals intensify or fade. [36]
- Proof of Pioneer synergies translating into measurable per‑barrel cost and productivity gains. [37]
- Any formal developments on Iraq / Lukoil-linked deal processes and U.S. licensing/sanctions constraints. [38]
- Capital return updates (dividend trajectory and buyback pace) in a lower-price tape. [39]
- Leadership transition execution as Neil Hansen steps in as CFO on February 1, 2026. [40]
Bottom line: Exxon stock is leaning on “quality of cash flow” in a weaker oil market
As of December 20, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock is being priced less like a pure oil beta trade and more like a cash-return and execution story—one anchored by the company’s upgraded 2030 plan, structural cost reductions, and a deep inventory of low-cost barrels.
But the market’s mood remains highly sensitive to crude: with Brent hovering around $60, investors will keep pressing the same question—how much buyback power is truly “through-cycle,” and how much is commodity-dependent? [41]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. seekingalpha.com, 10. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 11. investor.exxonmobil.com, 12. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 15. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 16. www.spglobal.com, 17. www.ft.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 32. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com
