NEW YORK, March 3, 2026, 17:05 ET — Trading after the bell
- Exxon shares slipped after hours, following a volatile ride during the day.
- Oil finished at its highest mark in over a year, with traders on edge over possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.
- Exxon’s Middle East footprint drew scrutiny from investors, who also reacted to new remarks out of Venezuela by one of the company’s executives.
Exxon Mobil Corp dropped 1.6% to $151.83 in after-hours moves Tuesday, following a day that saw the shares swing from $150.34 up to $157.94. Chevron edged down 0.4%, and the S&P 500 ETF SPY was off 0.9%.
Oil prices moved sharply the other way, closing out the day almost 5% higher as clashes involving U.S. and Israeli forces against Iran snarled energy flows out of the Middle East. Brent finished up 4.7% at $81.40 a barrel, while U.S. crude also jumped 4.7% to $74.56. Both posted their strongest closes in over a year. Trump put the anticipated air campaign at four to five weeks, but “the market is thinking there might be a quicker resolution,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. Reuters
Some barrels and gas flows are at risk from the same conflict that’s been boosting crude, analysts warn. Jefferies figures about 20% of Exxon’s oil and gas output comes out of the Middle East. TD Cowen points to nearly 60% of Exxon’s LNG operations—liquefied natural gas, shipped after it’s chilled—clustered in that region. Following drone strikes, QatarEnergy stopped LNG output on Monday. Over in Texas, analyst Betty Jiang from Barclays flagged that Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG project is still expected to begin production this month.
Exxon is looking to dispatch a technical team to Venezuela within weeks, senior vice president Jack Williams told a Morgan Stanley event, though he noted the timing depends on sorting out logistics and security. “If the investment terms are right, we will be interested in going back,” Williams said. Trump, for his part, has been pushing oil majors to put $100 billion into the country—this after U.S. forces ousted President Nicolás Maduro in January. Exxon pulled out of Venezuela back in 2007 after two separate expropriations. “We know the resource pretty well,” Williams added. Reuters
Oil forecasters are tweaking projections fast. Bernstein bumped up its 2026 Brent forecast to $80 a barrel from $65, flagging $120 to $150 if a drawn-out conflict hits. Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi put it bluntly: “the world could handle the Strait of Hormuz being shut” for maybe a week or two—after that, the fallout grows quickly. Reuters
Exxon stands to benefit from higher crude prices, which typically bulk up upstream cash flow. On the flip side, if there’s a drawn-out disruption in Hormuz, the company could see LNG cargoes pressured and a jump in both shipping and insurance expenses.
Returning to Venezuela, should talks progress beyond words, carries its own set of risks. Contract conditions or the security situation could shift abruptly. Investors haven’t forgotten past expropriations.
Bulls are counting on oil to stay put at these levels. If the conflict cools off sooner than expected—or if other suppliers step in to cover the shortfall—energy stocks could face a reversal.
All eyes now turn to Wednesday, when the Energy Information Administration will publish its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on March 4 at 10:30 a.m. ET. This data drop regularly jolts crude prices just before the cash session begins.
