NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 18:28 ET — Market closed
Exxon Mobil will be in focus when U.S. markets reopen after President Donald Trump said America’s biggest oil companies, including Exxon, would spend billions to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry following Saturday’s U.S. operation that captured President Nicolas Maduro. Trump said the U.S. oil embargo remains in effect and that an American military presence would stay until Washington’s demands were met, Reuters reported. Peter McNally, global head of sector analysts at Third Bridge, said “it will take tens of billions of dollars to turn that industry around.” 1
Exxon shares closed up 1.9% on Friday at $122.65. With the NYSE closed on Saturday, investors won’t get an immediate read on how the Venezuela escalation filters into U.S. energy stocks until Monday, Jan. 5.
The stakes are high because Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves — about 303 billion barrels — but output has fallen to around 1.1 million barrels per day after years of mismanagement, underinvestment and sanctions, Reuters reported. Any sustained reopening to foreign capital would be a swing factor for global heavy-crude supply. 2
Trump said U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro during an overnight operation that knocked out electricity in parts of Caracas and that the United States would run the country until a “safe, proper and judicious transition.” Venezuelan officials vowed defiance. 3
Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA was operating normally on Saturday and suffered no damage from the U.S. strike, two sources with knowledge of its operations told Reuters. But Trump’s tanker blockade announced in December and the U.S. seizure of two cargoes cut shipments to about half of November levels, according to monitoring data and internal documents cited by Reuters. The measures have forced PDVSA to store crude on tankers and slow port deliveries, while a December cyberattack disrupted its administrative systems, Reuters reported. 4
Venezuelan barrels are largely “heavy” crude — a thick oil that requires specialized refining equipment and typically trades at a discount to lighter grades. For Exxon, any Venezuela re-entry would hinge on the commercial terms and enforceability of contracts after past nationalizations.
Exxon has a long and contentious history in Venezuela. It and ConocoPhillips quit their oil operations in 2007 after failing to agree terms to stay in multibillion-dollar projects as the government moved to take control, Reuters reported at the time.
In one high-profile dispute, a World Bank arbitration tribunal ordered Venezuela to pay Exxon about $1.6 billion related to the Cerro Negro and La Ceiba projects after PDVSA took over Exxon’s operations, Reuters reported in 2014.
Whether Trump’s plan translates into investable projects remains the key market question. Investors will be watching for details on sanctions, shipping restrictions and licensing — the practical levers that determine if U.S. companies can operate and export Venezuelan crude.
Oil prices will also be the immediate barometer once global markets resume, with traders weighing the risk of further disruption against reports that core production and refining assets were not hit. The direction of crude tends to matter more for Exxon shares than single-country exposure, given the company’s scale and global output.
Before the next session, traders will also be looking for any direct comment from ExxonMobil and peers on Trump’s stated Venezuela plans. Policy clarity from Washington — not just rhetoric — is likely to drive the next move in energy equities.
Exxon has flagged a near-term catalyst of its own: an “earnings considerations” Form 8-K, a U.S. securities filing used to update investors on material developments, scheduled for Jan. 7 after market hours.
Wall Street is also bracing for Exxon’s quarterly results later this month; Zacks Investment Research lists Jan. 30 as the next expected earnings release date. 5
Technicians will be watching whether Exxon can hold above the low-$120 area when trading resumes. Barchart data show first support around $120.61 and resistance around $123.68, with the stock near a 52-week high around $122.68; the 50-day moving average was about $117.17.
