As of December 25, 2025, Ford Motor Company stock is heading into the year’s final stretch with two big narratives battling for control of the investor storyline: a major strategic reset in electric vehicles (EVs)—complete with a $19.5 billion charge—and a fresh round of recall headlines that keep quality concerns in the spotlight.
With U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day, the most recent trade data points to Ford shares around the mid-$13 range after the last trading session. [1]
Below is what’s moving Ford stock right now, what Wall Street is forecasting, and what could matter most when 2026 actually starts acting like a real year.
Ford stock price today: where F shares stand on December 25, 2025
Ford stock (NYSE: F) last traded around $13.36 following the December 24, 2025 session, up roughly 0.5% on the day, based on widely reported historical pricing for the holiday-shortened week. [2]
Zooming out, Ford has had a notably strong 2025 run by its own historical standards. One recent valuation-focused analysis described Ford shares as up over 40% in 2025, raising the question of whether the rally has outpaced fundamentals. [3]
That backdrop matters because the end-of-year tape can flatter (or punish) a stock for reasons that have nothing to do with engines, batteries, or whether people are actually buying trucks. The real issue for long-term shareholders is simpler: Did Ford’s strategy changes buy it a clearer path to durable profits—or just rearrange the risks?
The biggest Ford stock catalyst: a sweeping EV strategy reset and a $19.5B hit
Ford’s most consequential late-December development is not subtle. On December 15, 2025, Ford announced a set of actions to “sharpen” its Ford+ plan, including stepping back from select larger EVs where the business case has weakened, and redeploying capital toward trucks, vans, hybrids, and a new battery energy storage business. [4]
The headline financial number: Ford said it expects to record about $19.5 billion in special items, with the majority in Q4 2025 and the remainder across 2026–2027. Ford also guided to about $5.5 billion in cash effects, largely paid in 2026. [5]
Just as important for equity investors: Ford raised its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to about $7 billion and reaffirmed adjusted free cash flow guidance, trending toward the high end of $2–$3 billion. [6]
What Ford is actually doing (in plain English)
Ford’s update wasn’t “EVs are over.” It was more like: “We’re done lighting money on fire in the specific ways we were lighting money on fire.” Key operational takeaways include:
- A heavier push into hybrids and extended-range EVs (EREVs). Ford said that by 2030, it expects about 50% of its global volume will be hybrids, extended-range EVs, and fully electric vehicles, up from 17% in 2025. [7]
- A new “Universal EV Platform” focused on smaller, more affordable EVs, with the first vehicle described as a connected midsize electric pickup planned for Louisville Assembly Plant starting in 2027. [8]
- A major change for the F-150 Lightning roadmap: Ford said the next-generation F-150 Lightning will shift to an extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) architecture, and that production of the current generation Lightning has concluded as the company redeploys employees. [9]
- A new battery energy storage business (BESS): Ford plans to repurpose battery manufacturing capacity in Glendale, Kentucky, targeting shipping BESS systems in 2027 and deploying at least 20 GWh annually by late 2027, with roughly $2 billion of investment over the next two years to scale the business. [10]
Why this matters for Ford stock: investors have been looking for a story where Ford’s EV effort becomes less of a margin sinkhole while the company leans into what it’s traditionally good at—high-volume trucks, commercial vehicles, and financing—and then uses that cash flow to fund a more realistic electrification pathway.
Independent coverage framed the move as a response to weaker-than-expected EV demand and high costs, noting Ford’s EV division has absorbed heavy losses and that the strategic retreat was received positively by markets during Ford’s strong 2025 share performance. [11]
Recall headlines: a 272,645-vehicle recall adds pressure to the quality narrative
On the news front dated right around Christmas, one of the most widely circulated Ford items is a recall involving the “park” function.
Regulators and major outlets reported that Ford is recalling 272,645 vehicles in the U.S. because an integrated park module may fail to lock the vehicle into park, increasing the risk of rollaway and crash. The affected models include certain 2022–2026 F-150 Lightning, 2024–2026 Mustang Mach‑E, and 2025–2026 Maverick vehicles. [12]
Per the NHTSA recall documentation, Ford’s recall number for this campaign is 25C69, and the remedy is tied to software (with owner notification timing stretching into early 2026). [13]
A critical investor detail: software and over-the-air fixes can reduce per-unit repair costs compared with hardware replacements—but recalls still carry potential costs through warranty expense, reputational drag, and regulatory scrutiny, and they feed into the broader “quality” debate that has followed Ford for much of the last few years.
Ford’s recall count has been historically high in 2025
This specific recall is happening in a year when Ford has already been drawing attention for the sheer volume of safety campaigns. Kelley Blue Book reported in 2025 that Ford had issued more than 100 recalls during the year—surpassing the prior annual record—while the year still had months remaining. [14]
For Ford stock, the market implication is not “recall = sell.” It’s more nuanced: persistent quality costs can quietly tax margins, especially in a business where a one-point swing in operating margin is real money.
Battery strategy and partnerships: Ford reshuffles key EV infrastructure
One underappreciated part of Ford’s December 15 update is what it revealed about battery operations and joint ventures.
Ford said that it, SK On, SK Battery America and BlueOval SK entered into a joint venture disposition agreement, under which a Ford subsidiary will independently own and operate the Kentucky battery plants, while SK On will fully own and operate the Tennessee battery plant. [15]
That’s not just corporate housekeeping. It’s Ford adjusting its footprint to match new EV realities, while trying to preserve optionality for future demand.
Separately, Reuters reported that LG Energy Solution is selling Ohio factory assets to Honda in a multibillion-dollar deal, noting in that context that LG Energy Solution had lost a major battery deal with Ford amid softer EV demand and policy shifts. [16]
For investors, the through-line is clear: the EV supply chain is no longer being built for one straight-line growth forecast. It’s being built for flexibility, and Ford is acting like a company that expects the EV transition to be bumpy rather than cinematic.
Ford’s Europe strategy: partnerships and “multi-energy” vehicles
Ford’s strategy pivot is not only a North America story. On December 9, 2025, Ford outlined the next phase of its European strategy, including a strategic partnership with Renault Group tied to developing two Ford-branded EVs on Renault’s Ampere platform for showrooms in 2028, while Ford would lead design and driving dynamics. [17]
Ford also emphasized a broader move toward multi-energy vehicles in Europe and called for policy alignment with market realities—language that aligns with the company’s wider push toward hybrids and affordability rather than betting everything on rapid full-EV adoption. [18]
For Ford stock watchers, Europe is often treated like “background noise” compared with U.S. trucks and Ford Pro. But partnerships that lower development costs and speed time-to-market can meaningfully change the risk profile of the business overseas—especially in a region with aggressive emissions targets and intense price competition.
Wall Street forecasts for Ford stock: mostly “Hold,” with a split view on upside
The consensus view on Ford stock is still fairly cautious relative to the company’s strong 2025 performance.
Data aggregators of analyst research show Ford with a general “Hold” consensus and a 12‑month price target clustering around the low‑$12 range—implying modest downside from mid‑$13 trading levels, depending on the source and timing of updates. [19]
- One widely cited snapshot put Ford’s average price target around $12.18 with the high end in the mid‑teens and the low end near $7. [20]
- Another summary showed an average target around $12.23 with a Hold consensus. [21]
But upgrades are happening
Not every analyst is sitting on their hands. Reporting distributed via TheFly/TipRanks noted that Evercore ISI raised its price target on Ford to $14 from $12 while keeping an “In Line” rating, citing a refocus on U.S. ICE/hybrids and increased F‑150 production. [22]
That’s a useful tell: even when the rating stays neutral, target increases can signal that the “worst-case” EV cash burn narrative has eased.
Valuation debates: fair value estimates below market
Some valuation-oriented pieces argue Ford may be trading above intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow models. One Yahoo Finance analysis pegged an estimated fair value around $11.69, implying the stock price was higher than that estimate at the time of writing. [23]
Take those models with appropriate skepticism—DCF outputs depend heavily on assumptions about margins, cyclicality, and capital intensity. But they do reflect a real concern: Ford’s business is still cyclical, and “good years” in autos can make valuation look deceptively cheap… right before the cycle turns.
The next major catalyst for Ford stock: Q4 earnings on February 10, 2026
Ford plans to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on Tuesday, February 10. [24]
Between now and then, the market will try to estimate what the EV reset really means in numbers:
- How much of the $19.5B special-items impact is accounting vs. cash, and how quickly does it roll through? Ford has already flagged the rough cash effects timing (mostly 2026), but the details matter. [25]
- Whether Model e losses narrow on a credible path to the 2029 profitability target. Ford explicitly said Model e is now expected to reach profitability by 2029, with improvements beginning in 2026. [26]
- Whether Ford Pro stays strong enough to “carry the story.” In Q3 2025, Ford Pro posted nearly $2.0B EBIT on $17.4B revenue, while paid software subscriptions were reported at 818,000—metrics that investors watch because Ford Pro is supposed to be the higher-margin engine that makes the whole Ford+ narrative work. [27]
- Warranty and recall costs. Not glamorous, but brutally important for an automaker’s margin reality—especially in a year marked by unusually high recall activity. [28]
The bull case vs. the bear case for Ford stock heading into 2026
Ford stock is often treated like two stocks taped together:
- a cash-generating truck/commercial/finance business, and
- an electrification and software transition project with uncertain payoff timing.
The December strategy reset is Ford trying to make those two parts stop fighting each other in public.
The bull case (why investors have warmed up in 2025)
- Ford is explicitly steering investment toward higher-return segments (trucks, vans, Ford Pro) and away from EV bets where demand and cost assumptions didn’t cooperate. [29]
- It raised profit guidance even while taking big charges, which markets often interpret as “we’re cleaning house without breaking the underlying engine.” [30]
- Its plan emphasizes hybrids and extended-range approaches that match how many consumers are actually behaving (especially when charging infrastructure and incentives are inconsistent). [31]
The bear case (why the Street still leans “Hold”)
- Recalls and quality-related costs remain a recurring theme, and 2025’s recall pace has been historically high. [32]
- The auto business is cyclical, capital-intensive, and sensitive to interest rates—meaning a “cheap” multiple can be a mirage if earnings normalize down.
- Even after a strategic reset, profitability targets (like Model e profitability by 2029) are forward-looking and execution-dependent. [33]
- Analyst target averages hovering around ~$12 suggest that many on Wall Street believe the market may already be pricing in much of the good news. [34]
Bottom line: Ford stock enters 2026 with a clearer plan—and the same old auto-industry physics
On December 25, 2025, the Ford stock story is less about holiday trading and more about whether Ford’s late-year moves represent a true inflection point:
- The company is de-risking parts of its EV strategy,
- leaning harder into hybrids, trucks, vans, and Ford Pro,
- and attempting to turn “underused battery capacity” into a new energy storage revenue stream. [35]
At the same time, recalls—especially ones involving core EV nameplates like the Lightning and Mach‑E—keep quality and warranty costs on the investor checklist. [36]
Ford stock can absolutely work in a portfolio—particularly for investors who value dividends and cyclical rebounds—but the 2026 outlook hinges on something profoundly unromantic: execution, costs, and whether the company can deliver profits that don’t evaporate when conditions get less friendly. [37]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. s205.q4cdn.com, 5. s205.q4cdn.com, 6. s205.q4cdn.com, 7. s205.q4cdn.com, 8. s205.q4cdn.com, 9. s205.q4cdn.com, 10. s205.q4cdn.com, 11. www.ft.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. static.nhtsa.gov, 14. www.kbb.com, 15. s205.q4cdn.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. media.ford.com, 18. media.ford.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. s205.q4cdn.com, 25. s205.q4cdn.com, 26. s205.q4cdn.com, 27. s205.q4cdn.com, 28. www.kbb.com, 29. s205.q4cdn.com, 30. s205.q4cdn.com, 31. s205.q4cdn.com, 32. www.kbb.com, 33. s205.q4cdn.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. s205.q4cdn.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. s205.q4cdn.com
