Ford Motor Company stock is in the spotlight on December 16, 2025, as investors digest two very different headline streams: a major strategic reset in electric vehicles (EVs) tied to a $19.5 billion charge, and a new U.S. vehicle recall flagged by regulators. Add in fresh guidance, a new battery-energy-storage push, and a looming earnings date—and you’ve got the kind of day that turns “Ford stock” into a trending search term.
Below is what’s driving Ford stock (F) right now, what management is signaling about 2026 and beyond, and how analysts are positioning their Ford stock forecast.
Ford stock price today: where Ford (F) shares stand on Dec. 16, 2025
As of the latest available quote on Dec. 16, Ford shares traded around $13.65, down roughly 0.8% versus the prior close. Investing
That price level matters because it places Ford near the upper end of its recent trading range—right as the company is making one of its biggest “strategy reality-check” moves of the decade.
The big catalyst: Ford’s $19.5 billion EV charge and what it signals for Ford stock
The dominant storyline for Ford stock is the company’s decision to take an estimated $19.5 billion EV-related charge as it walks back several next-generation, fully electric vehicle plans and reallocates investment toward trucks, hybrids, and extended-range EVs (EREVs). Reuters
What’s inside the $19.5B write-down?
Reuters breaks the charge into three main buckets:
- ~$8.5 billion tied to canceling several future EV programs
- ~$6.0 billion tied to the dissolution/write-down of a battery joint venture with South Korea’s SK On
- ~$5.0 billion described as “program-related expenses” Reuters
A key detail for investors: not all of this is cash.
Ford and Reuters both indicate that about $5.5 billion of the charge is expected to impact cash, with most of that paid in 2026 and the remainder in 2027. In other words, the headline number is huge, but the near-term liquidity hit is far smaller than the accounting charge implies. Ford From the Road
Why now?
Ford frames the move as a “customer-driven” pivot—less ideology, more math: demand, costs, and the profitability challenge of large EVs (especially big trucks) are forcing a reset. Ford From the Road
AP adds context that Ford has faced mounting EV losses and slowing U.S. consumer demand for EVs, pushing the company toward more efficient gas engines and hybrids. AP News
Ford’s new roadmap: hybrids, EREVs, and smaller EVs (not “EVs everywhere, all at once”)
This isn’t Ford abandoning electrification. It’s Ford changing which electrified vehicles it thinks can make money.
1) The new mix target: 50% “electrified” by 2030
Ford says that by 2030, about 50% of its global volume is expected to be hybrids, extended-range EVs, and fully electric vehicles, versus 17% today. Ford From the Road
2) The F-150 Lightning shift: from pure EV to extended-range EV
Reuters reports Ford will replace the fully electric F-150 Lightning concept for the next generation with an extended-range model that uses a gas engine to recharge the battery. Reuters
Ford’s own statement goes further on product pitch: it says the next-generation F-150 Lightning EREV is expected to deliver 700+ miles of range (estimated) while keeping electric torque and strong towing capability. Ford From the Road
3) The “affordable EV” bet: a ~$30,000 midsize electric pickup in 2027
Both Ford and Reuters point to a more mass-market EV strategy anchored by a new platform and a midsize electric pickup:
- Ford says the first vehicle on its Universal EV Platform will be a midsize pickup assembled at Louisville Assembly Plant starting in 2027. Ford From the Road
- Reuters adds Ford has described the truck as priced around $30,000 and positioned as the first model from its more affordable EV effort. Reuters
4) Plant and product reshuffling: Tennessee and Ohio re-aimed
Multiple outlets converge on the same message: Ford is refilling capacity with products more likely to sell profitably right now.
- Ford says new “Built Ford Tough” pickups are planned for its Tennessee footprint, and a new gas and hybrid commercial van will be produced at Ohio Assembly Plant. Ford From the Road
- AP similarly reports that the Tennessee EV center is being renamed as a truck plant and Ohio will build a gas/hybrid van. AP News
- Reuters notes the Tennessee facility that was envisioned for EV trucks is now slated to build gas-powered trucks starting in 2029. Reuters
The “surprise” growth angle: Ford launches a battery energy storage business
One of the most market-relevant nuggets for Ford stock—because it’s adjacent to the AI/data-center boom—is Ford’s plan to sell battery energy storage systems (BESS).
Ford says it will:
- leverage plants in Kentucky and Michigan plus LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery technology
- target energy infrastructure needs and data center demand
- begin shipping BESS systems in 2027 with 20 GWh of annual capacity Ford From the Road
Reuters also highlights that Ford plans to use its battery plants to produce energy storage system batteries and aims to bring initial capacity online within about 18 months. Reuters
For investors, this is more than a side quest. It’s Ford essentially saying: “If EV demand is lumpy, we want another battery-driven demand curve to sell into.”
Ford raises 2025 guidance—even while taking the EV charge
Here’s the twist that made some coverage notably less bearish than you might expect: Ford paired the write-down with a guidance increase.
Ford raised its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to about $7 billion, and reaffirmed its adjusted free cash flow range of $2 billion to $3 billion, trending toward the high end. Ford From the Road
That combination—big non-cash charge, but stronger underlying operating expectations—is a big reason the market reaction hasn’t been uniformly negative.
Today’s second headline: Ford recalls 32,160 vehicles in the U.S.
On Dec. 16, Reuters reported that Ford is recalling 32,160 vehicles in the U.S. after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) warned a defect could lead to loss of drive power, increasing crash risk. Reuters describes the issue as a half shaft not fully engaged to the primary drive unit, which can also create a rollaway risk if the parking brake isn’t applied. Reuters
For Ford stock watchers, recalls tend to matter in three ways:
- Direct cost (repairs, logistics, potential warranty impact)
- Quality narrative (market trust, brand perception)
- Headline risk (especially when the stock is already reacting to major strategic news)
This recall is not the core driver of Ford stock today—but it adds another variable for sentiment.
What analysts are forecasting for Ford stock: price targets and consensus view
The near-term “Ford stock forecast” picture from analysts remains cautious.
MarketBeat: average target implies downside
MarketBeat lists:
- Consensus price target: $12.04
- Implied downside from recent prices (around $13.66 in its snapshot)
- Targets ranging from $7.00 (low) to $15.50 (high) MarketBeat
Investing.com: “Neutral” consensus with a ~$12.84 average target
Investing.com reports a “Neutral” consensus rating, with an average 12‑month price target around $12.84, and estimates ranging from $9.8 (low) to $16 (high). Investing
The headline takeaway: even after Ford’s strategy reset (and arguably because of it), analysts are still largely in “prove it” mode—waiting to see if the hybrid/EREV pivot improves margins, and whether the smaller-EV plan can scale profitably.
Earnings and timeline: the next major “Ford stock” catalyst is Feb. 10, 2026
Ford says it plans to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Tuesday, Feb. 10. Ford From the Road
That report is likely to be pivotal because it should clarify:
- how the special items are booked
- what the 2026 outlook looks like after the strategic redeployment
- whether Ford can keep free cash flow resilient while absorbing cash impacts tied to the EV reset
Dividend watch: Ford’s payout remains part of the Ford stock story
Ford remains a dividend-paying automaker, which is one reason income-focused investors keep it on their radar despite strategy swings.
Ford’s Q3 2025 release noted a regular dividend of $0.15 per share (paid Dec. 1 to shareholders of record Nov. 7). Ford From the Road
At around $13.65 per share, a $0.15 quarterly dividend ($0.60 annualized) implies a yield of roughly 4.4% (simple annualized calculation, excluding any special dividends). Ford From the Road
The bull case vs. bear case for Ford stock after today’s news
This is where analysis matters more than headlines.
Why bulls see opportunity
- Ford is explicitly reallocating money away from large EVs “with no path to profitability” (Reuters’ framing) and into segments that have historically paid the bills: trucks, vans, hybrids, commercial. Reuters
- The company is trying to turn its battery investments into a broader business via energy storage for data centers and infrastructure. Ford From the Road
- Guidance moved up for 2025 adjusted EBIT despite the EV charge. Ford From the Road
Why bears still have ammo
- A $19.5B charge is a neon sign that prior capital allocation didn’t work as planned, and credibility has to be rebuilt. Reuters
- EV demand uncertainty, policy shifts, and battery economics are still moving targets—and Ford is navigating that in public, not in a lab. Reuters
- Recalls remain an ongoing reputational and cost risk, and today’s NHTSA-linked recall adds fresh headline noise. Reuters
Bottom line for Dec. 16, 2025: what Ford stock investors should watch next
Ford stock is being repriced around a simple question: Is Ford more valuable as a trucks-and-hybrids cash generator with selective EV bets, or as a full-speed EV transformer? Ford’s answer is now clear: the company is choosing the first option while keeping a smaller, cheaper EV lane open.
The next checkpoints are practical, not philosophical:
- Feb. 10, 2026 earnings and forward guidance Ford From the Road
- Evidence that hybrid and EREV demand can scale profitably
- Execution on battery energy storage commercialization by 2027 Ford From the Road
- Progress toward Model e profitability by 2029 Ford From the Road
- Quality and warranty discipline, with recalls remaining a recurring headline risk Reuters
