London, July 13, 2026, 12:10 BST
Glencore plc LON:GLEN rose 0.5% to 513.1 pence around midday on Monday, against a roughly 0.2% fall in the FTSE 100, as Brent crude gained more than 3% after renewed U.S.-Iran attacks. Yet the shares remained 0.1% below their July 3 close — almost no net move after six sessions of abrupt reversals.
That matters because Glencore is both a miner and a commodity trader. Its marketing arm can benefit from wider price gaps and disrupted transport, while its mines and smelters pay more for diesel and sulphuric acid; those industrial costs were already rising in April, Reuters reported.
| Market gauge | Latest reading | Session move |
|---|---|---|
| Glencore shares | 513.1p | +0.51% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,478.7 | -0.18% |
| Brent crude | $78.59 a barrel | +3.39% |
| Copper futures | $6.267 a pound | -0.24% |
Adding Glencore’s displayed daily moves from July 6 through Monday in absolute terms — counting gains and losses without offsetting them — produces 10.35 percentage points. The net change from July 3 was minus 0.10%. The stock has been volatile, not directional.
The near-term variable is the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel traffic fell to a five-week low on Sunday, with six ships crossing, while the route carried about one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict. UBS Group SWX:UBSG analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the market was carrying “a risk premium but as well a disruption risk supporting prices” — an extra price paid for uncertain supply. Reuters
Glencore’s own guidance puts operating execution beside trading. Chief Executive Gary Nagle said first-quarter marketing performance would put full-year adjusted EBIT — earnings before interest and tax — “comfortably exceeding the top end” of the company’s long-term $2.3 billion-to-$3.5 billion range. Using the midpoint of its annual production ranges and its stated first-half shares implies the following second-quarter volumes; these are calculations, not company forecasts. Glencore
| Product | First-quarter output | Implied second-quarter output | Change from first quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 199.6 thousand tonnes | 203.6 thousand tonnes | +2.0% |
| Steelmaking coal | 6.50 million tonnes | 7.58 million tonnes | +16.6% |
| Energy coal | 22.90 million tonnes | 21.95 million tonnes | -4.1% |
Applies Glencore’s stated first-half weighting to the midpoint of its 2026 range, then subtracts first-quarter production.
The calculation makes steelmaking coal the harder near-term test. Second-quarter production would need to rise almost 17% from the first quarter to match the midpoint and stated first-half share, compared with a 2% increase for copper. A miss would not automatically break annual guidance, but it would leave more work for the second half.
That two-sided earnings mix sets Glencore apart from more mine-led Rio Tinto LON:RIO and Anglo American LON:AAL, whose published portfolios centre on produced materials such as iron ore, copper, aluminium, lithium and crop nutrients. For investors, Glencore’s oil exposure is therefore not a simple energy bet. It is a contest between trading gains and industrial costs.
Glencore will release its half-year production report on July 29 at 7 a.m. UK time, followed by financial results on August 5. The first report should show whether second-quarter volumes cleared the hurdles above; the second should reveal whether marketing profit outran cost inflation.
But the balance can break in either direction. A quick restoration of Hormuz traffic could strip out oil’s risk premium and narrow trading opportunities; prolonged disruption could lift diesel, acid and freight costs faster than marketing profit. The downside case is a cost squeeze combined with delayed production, leaving less time to recover later in 2026.
For now, the share price says the benefits and costs nearly cancel. The volatility is real; a lasting valuation gain is not. July 29 will test whether that neutrality is too cautious or about right.
