NEW YORK, July 13, 2026, 08:08 EDT
Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA gained around $373 billion in market cap over the last five sessions ended Friday, but saw about $69 billion wiped out before markets opened Monday. Chip stocks slipped. Around 8 a.m. ET, Nvidia was trading at $208.11, off 1.35%, after the $210.96 close on Friday.
The percentage swing is minor, but for Nvidia, 1% means about $51 billion in market cap. Shares are up 13.1% in 2026, lagging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is up 83%, a gap of nearly 70 points.
Nvidia’s lag has pushed its forward price-to-earnings ratio down to about 19, the lowest level in over ten years. That’s based on the share price versus expected earnings for the next year. In comparison, forward P/E multiples for Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD and Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC both trade above their long-term averages. “We’ve never seen this kind of extreme earnings growth,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group NASDAQ:IBKR. ORTEX co-founder Peter Hillerberg said the recent rise in sector short interest reflects “caution and hedging,” not a crowded short. Reuters
| Nvidia and chip-market measure | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| Nvidia Friday close | $210.96, up 4.03% |
| Monday premarket | $208.11, down 1.35% |
| Five-session performance | +7.88% |
| 2026 performance | +13.12% |
| Friday market value | $5.11 trillion |
| Forward P/E | About 19 times |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index | Up 83% in 2026; still over 11% off the June high |
Nvidia’s market value is based on 24.2 billion shares. Premarket numbers can be volatile and don’t always match what you’ll see once the market opens.
By the end of trading Friday, the 19-times forward earnings multiple puts implied earnings at around $11.10 a share. That’s about 70% higher than Nvidia’s $6.53 trailing EPS, which covers results from the last 12 months. This difference isn’t based on any company forecast—it’s just the math from the market ratios.
| Mechanical case | Earnings per share | P/E multiple | Implied share value | Change from Friday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current market base | $11.10 | 19 times | $210.96 | — |
| Earnings drop 10% | $9.99 | 19 times | $189.86 | -10.0% |
| Earnings down 10%, multiple at 17 | $9.99 | 17 times | $169.88 | -19.5% |
| Earnings up 10% | $12.21 | 19 times | $232.06 | +10.0% |
This table shows valuation sensitivities, not analyst price targets.
Supplier numbers are still high. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co NYSE:TSM, which supplies Nvidia, reported June revenue up 67.9% on the year at NT$442.68 billion. Reuters put second-quarter revenue at a record NT$1.27 trillion, up 36% and just above what analysts expected. The company will post full quarterly results on Thursday.
Nvidia is guiding to $91 billion in revenue for the current quarter, plus or minus 2%, leaving out any data-centre computing sales to China. That marks an 11.5% jump from last quarter’s record $81.6 billion. Data-centre revenue last quarter was $75.2 billion. The pace helps justify Nvidia’s low multiple, but there’s less room now for shipping hiccups, a worse product mix or squeezed margins.
Positioning has complicated the picture. U.S. technology funds took in $9.71 billion in the week ended July 8, the biggest weekly inflow since mid-June, even while Nvidia lagged other tech names. So investors are still putting money into tech, just with a sharper focus on where in the AI supply chain they think value is highest.
The hit isn’t just about Nvidia missing. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.94% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXX was down 2.6% early Monday, with oil jumping over 3% as worries flared over U.S.-Iran tensions. “The shock was disrupting the momentum trade once again,” Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB (GPW:XTB), said. Factor in a 10% earnings miss and a multiple of 17 times earnings, and the mechanical value lands near $170 in the table. Reuters
For investors, the big question now isn’t the size of AI spending but how well Nvidia can turn it into earnings per share. The $373 billion gain last week reflected bets on that. Monday’s drop, though mild, showed how a minor shift in odds hits the stock.
Related articles: NASDAQ:NVDA
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