LONDON, July 9, 2026, 11:57 BST
Gold bounced above $4,100 an ounce on Thursday, lifted by a weaker dollar after the metal hit its lowest point since July 1. Ongoing U.S.-Iran clashes kept traders focused on inflation and rate risks. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,106.82 an ounce as of 0901 GMT. U.S. August futures were also up 0.8% at $4,116.40. “Gold is trying to form a bottom today as dollar strength eases,” said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. Reuters
This move is different because the rally isn’t a classic safe-haven trade. Gold is a common buy when investors are nervous. But when oil climbs, inflation can pick up. That can lift bond yields, which tends to hurt non-yielding assets like bullion that don’t pay interest.
The split showed up Wednesday, with gold down 0.9% while crude surged over 5% after President Donald Trump declared the interim Iran deal was “over.” “Increased escalation” dragged down risk assets, “gold included,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Reuters
The Fed isn’t making it easy. Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting showed some officials thought the case to hike rates was strong even as the central bank left its main rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Nine out of 18 policy members expect the rate a bit higher by the end of 2026. LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said there was “some ambiguity in the minutes” and future policy was “heavily contingent” on the Middle East. Reuters
The dollar index dropped 0.2% to 100.91, which took some pressure off gold priced in dollars for buyers using other currencies. Still, traders pegged the odds of a U.S. rate hike this year around 87%, based on CME FedWatch data. Brent crude hovered near $77 a barrel, following a more than 5% jump at the last close. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said Middle East tensions had “rattled global markets again” and that higher oil might “bring forward” a Fed hike. Reuters
HSBC lowered its average gold outlook for 2026 to $4,560 per ounce, down from $4,864, and cut the 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000. The bank cited “changing perceptions of U.S. monetary policy” and dollar moves as the main reasons for recent gold selling. HSBC said central bank demand has slowed, but long-term diversification and a potential pickup in ETF buying later this year could help support prices. Reuters
Gold wasn’t the only precious metal to gain. Silver traded at $58.93, up 1.17%, and platinum added 2.05% to $1,620.30 on Thursday, according to Trading Economics. The move stretched across the metals complex, but gold stayed more closely linked to the dollar and Fed moves.
The risk case is still simple. If oil jumps, inflation bets could climb, the dollar could get stronger, and yields might go up too, all putting pressure on gold. A weaker U.S. CPI print—due July 14—would likely have the reverse effect and could clear the way for metals to recover. Kitco’s note on Wednesday pointed to nearby gold support between $4,041 and $4,072.
Right now, the tape is steadier but not settled. Gold drew buyers after moving above $4,000, yet its next leg looks tied more to whether the oil shock nudges the Fed toward another hike than to jewelry demand or mine supply.
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