NEW DELHI, Jan 21, 2026, 17:34 IST
- India’s MCX February gold futures surged to a record ₹1,58,339 per 10 grams; March silver climbed to ₹3,35,521 per kg
- Spot gold surged to a record $4,887.82 an ounce as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid rising U.S.-Europe tensions over Greenland
- India’s physical-market premiums surged past $100 an ounce as speculation mounts over an import-duty increase before the Feb. 1 budget
Gold futures in India climbed to a record ₹1.58 lakh per 10 grams on Wednesday, marking a third straight session of gains as global prices surged past $4,800 an ounce. Silver futures followed suit, hitting a new high above ₹3.35 lakh per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the country’s primary commodity derivatives platform. 1
Spot gold surged past $4,800 for the first time, hitting a record $4,887.82 an ounce. Investors seeking safety piled in as tensions between the US and NATO escalated over Greenland. “The Greenland crisis is front and centre,” said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money, ahead of President Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. 2
The latest surge came after Tuesday’s rally, which saw gold push past $4,700 and silver hit record highs. The moves followed renewed tariff threats from Trump targeting Europe, ramping up trade-war concerns and dragging the dollar down. “Gold has surged deeper into uncharted territory as investors hedge against rising political risk,” said City Index and FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada, who pointed to $5,000 as the next key psychological barrier. Markets are also factoring in two 25-basis-point (0.25 percentage point) U.S. rate cuts by mid-2026. 3
Gold in India’s spot market shot past ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams this week, with silver climbing above ₹3 lakh per kg, traders reported, tracking the global surge. Avinash Gupta, vice-chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council, pointed to US President Donald Trump’s Greenland threats as the main driver behind the rally. He also noted that speculation around a new Federal Reserve chief was adding momentum to the move. 4
Some banks are revising their forecasts upward. BNP Paribas commodities strategist David Wilson pointed to “new geopolitical uncertainties” driving gold toward $5,000 faster than anticipated. He also cautioned that silver might drop after hitting $100, as physical-market disruptions — supply bottlenecks that tighten availability — start to ease. 5
India’s physical-market gold premiums surged sharply, hitting up to $112 an ounce over official domestic prices — marking the highest level since May 2014. Silver premiums also soared to a record $8, according to Reuters, as traders braced for a possible import-duty hike in the Feb. 1 federal budget. The rupee’s slide to a record low added fuel to the fire. “People are speculating that the government may raise import duties on gold and silver,” said CapsGold managing director Chanda Venkatesh. 6
The rally is showing signs of overcrowding. A thaw in the Greenland dispute, a dollar bounce, or changing rate expectations might spark heavy profit-taking. Silver, closing in on $100, is especially vulnerable, with local prices pushing the limits for jewellery buyers.
Traders are focused on whether gold can stay above $4,800 and push toward $5,000. The next hurdle will come from policy updates, ranging from Davos discussions to India’s budget announcements.
