Gold Price Today (11 December 2025): XAU/USD Holds Above $4,200 After Fed’s Third Rate Cut

Gold is trading just over the psychologically important $4,200 per ounce level today, 11 December 2025, consolidating after a volatile spike on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s third consecutive interest-rate cut and a historic year in which bullion has surged more than 60%. ^[1]

Below is a full breakdown of today’s gold price, the latest news and forecasts, and what traders and long‑term investors are watching next.

Gold price today: XAU/USD near $4,200, close to record territory

Real‑time spot prices from major data providers show gold broadly steady around $4,210–$4,230 per ounce this Thursday:

Spot XAU/USD is quoted near $4,214–$4,215, with a day’s range around $4,204–$4,248 and a 52‑week range of roughly $2,583–$4,382. ^[2]
Another live feed puts spot gold at about $4,215 with small single‑day moves (roughly ±0.3%) – essentially a flat session after last night’s Fed fireworks. ^[3]
Gold futures (February) are trading slightly above spot, around $4,240 per ounce, up roughly 0.4% on the day. ^[4]

In other words, gold price today is holding firm above $4,200, a stone’s throw from all‑time highs rather than staging a big breakout or a sharp correction.

Silver joins the party

Silver is stealing some headlines:

Spot silver has recently pushed to record highs around $61–$62 per ounce, extending an eye‑watering rally of around 100%+ this year, driven by industrial demand and supply deficits. ^[5]

This explosive silver move has helped underpin sentiment in the broader precious‑metals complex.

Local gold prices today: India and Indonesia snapshot

Because many readers track gold in their local currency, here’s how today’s global move looks on the ground.

India: MCX gold near record highs

On India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX):

February gold futures opened around ₹1,30,259–₹1,30,320 per 10g, up roughly 0.3–0.4% after the Fed cut. ^[6]
A separate MCX outlook pegs the current market price near ₹1,29,940, with analysts eyeing ₹1,34,000 as an upside target and ₹1,27,000 as key support. ^[7]

Silver on MCX has hit fresh records above ₹1,92,000/kg, mirroring the international surge. ^[8]

Indonesia: jewelry prices edge higher

In Indonesia, a popular retail benchmark shows:

9‑karat gold jewelry priced around IDR 1,209,000
18‑karat jewelry around IDR 2,132,000

for chain‑style pieces at a major local brand, reflecting both the global rally and store‑specific premiums. ^[9]

Fed’s third rate cut is the main driver behind today’s gold price

The key macro story behind gold price today is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December meeting:

The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, its third straight cut since September 2025. ^[10]
Chair Jerome Powell signaled a more cautious tone, with the median Fed forecast still showing only one further cut in 2026, even as markets price in the possibility of more. ^[11]

Market reaction:

The U.S. dollar index is trading lower around 98.3, down about 0.45%, while the 10‑year Treasury yield has slipped to roughly 4.15%, easing financial conditions slightly. ^[12]
Immediately after the decision, gold whipsawed but then spiked towards $4,220–$4,236, as traders interpreted the Fed’s tone as dovish‑leaning, even if not aggressively so. ^[13]

Lower nominal and real yields, plus a softer dollar, reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold, which is why even a fairly “measured” cut has been enough to keep prices near record highs.

Technical picture: bulls still in control above $4,150

Short‑term and daily charts remain broadly constructive for gold.

Intraday and daily levels

A blend of today’s analysis from several trading desks highlights:

Key resistance:
- Psychological barrier at $4,250, which gold has tested but not yet cleanly broken. ^[14]
- A Fibonacci resistance zone near $4,275 on the daily chart. ^[15]
Immediate support:
- The 21‑day moving average near $4,158 is seen as first line of defense. ^[16]
- Short‑term support zones around $4,164–$4,154, where buyers recently stepped in. ^[17]
- Deeper corrective support around $4,114–$4,099, which some analysts treat as the trend boundary for the current upswing. ^[18]

From a technical‑indicator standpoint:

A popular technical dashboard shows XAU/USD around $4,214, with the day’s range near $4,204–$4,248 and the overall daily signal rated “Buy” / “Strong Buy” on many time frames. ^[19]
10 of 12 moving averages on the daily chart are pointing to “Buy”, and the 14‑day RSI is ~52–62, suggesting bullish momentum but not yet extreme overbought conditions. ^[20]

Takeaway: technically, gold remains in a bullish uptrend as long as it holds above $4,150–$4,200, with $4,250–$4,275 acting as the key ceiling that bulls need to clear for a fresh leg higher.

Central banks, silver and the “double‑bubble” debate

Today’s price action doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It sits on top of a remarkable backdrop:

Central banks are still big buyers

The World Gold Council estimates gold has logged over 50 all‑time highs in 2025 and delivered more than 60% returns year‑to‑date, supported by central‑bank buying, a weaker dollar, geopolitical stress and positive momentum. ^[21]
Recent data show China, Poland, Brazil and Uzbekistan all continued adding to their gold reserves in November, extending a multi‑month buying trend. ^[22]
Global gold ETFs have seen six straight months of net inflows, pushing holdings to record levels. ^[23]
A recent newsletter notes that central banks are increasingly “swapping dollars for gold,” making the metal a key uncertainty hedge in a world of rising risks for the greenback. ^[24]

But regulators are worried about a bubble

Not everyone is comfortable with how far and fast gold has run:

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently warned of a possible “double bubble” in both gold and stocks, highlighting that the co‑movement of soaring gold and equities hasn’t been seen in at least 50 years. ^[25]
BIS officials argue that gold’s 60%+ surge this year has pushed it to behave more like a speculative risk asset than a classic safe haven, raising the question: where do investors hide if both stocks and gold correct at the same time? ^[26]

At the same time, silver’s triple‑digit rally, driven by industrial demand, supply deficits and its listing as a U.S. “critical mineral”, adds to the sense that the precious‑metals complex is in a powerful but potentially fragile bull phase. ^[27]

Short‑term gold price forecasts: what analysts and models say

Forecasts for the next few days and weeks are broadly bullish, but differ in intensity.

Discretionary analyst views

An Indian brokerage sees MCX gold in a firm bullish undertone, recommending a “buy on dips” approach as long as price stays above ₹1,27,000, with an upside target near ₹1,34,000 per 10g. ^[28]
Another strategist expects dollar weakness and lower U.S. rates to “keep upward pressure on bullion”, projecting gold to gradually trend toward around $4,300, with silver consolidating in a $62–$65 band. ^[29]
A separate note from the same article argues gold and silver remain in “structural bull runs”, with near‑term gold targets in the $4,800–$5,000 region if conditions stay supportive. ^[30]
Earlier this month, a Reuters survey highlighted an outlook where gold trades between $4,500 and $5,000 in 2026, reflecting expectations of continued Fed easing and persistent safe‑haven demand. ^[31]

Quant and algorithmic models

Algorithm‑based forecasts are more modest in the near term but still point up:

One widely followed model pegs today’s live gold price around $4,215, and projects:
- 5‑day prediction: roughly $4,227
- 1‑month prediction: about $4,345
- 3‑month prediction: around $4,504
- 2030 projection: broad range $7,830–$9,570, implying over 120% potential upside versus current levels in its optimistic scenario. ^[32]

These models are purely statistical, based on historical price behavior, and come with strong caveats: they do not account for new shocks, policy changes or geopolitical surprises.

Medium‑ to long‑term outlook: after a historic 2025, can gold keep climbing?

The big question after such a strong year is whether gold can keep its momentum into 2026 and beyond.

World Gold Council base case: more muted, but still resilient

The World Gold Council, in its 2026 outlook, describes 2025 as one of gold’s strongest years since 1971 and expects a more balanced environment next year: ^[33]

Baseline scenario for 2026: gold trading in a relatively narrow band, with performance somewhere between –5% and +5%, assuming moderate U.S. rate cuts, a broadly stable dollar and no dramatic escalation in geopolitical risk. ^[34]
Bullish scenarios:
- A “shallow economic slip” could see gold gain 5–15%, as investors move cautiously into defensive assets.
- In a deeper downturn or “doom loop”, gold could rally 15–30%, driven by aggressive monetary easing and falling bond yields. ^[35]
Bearish scenario: if growth reaccelerates and real yields move higher, gold could fall 5–20% from current levels. ^[36]

Street targets: from $4,300 to beyond $5,000

Some major banks and strategists are more optimistic than the WGC baseline:

Research cited by Euronews notes J.P. Morgan Private Bank projecting gold in a $5,200–$5,300 range in 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees levels around $4,900 by year‑end, both citing ongoing central‑bank demand and diversification away from the dollar. ^[37]
Metals strategists quoted by BullionVault describe $5,000 gold as “definitely maybe” for 2026, especially if Fed easing continues and the dollar stays soft. ^[38]

The contrast between cautious official sector views and more bullish Street targets underscores the uncertainty around how sustainable today’s elevated prices really are.

Key levels and risks to watch after today

Looking beyond today’s print, traders and investors will be watching several key levels and catalysts:

Price levels

Support zones to watch:
- $4,200: psychological and tactical line in the sand highlighted by several analysts; a sustained break below could encourage profit‑taking. ^[39]
- $4,164–$4,154: short‑term “support A” where the uptrend recently held. ^[40]
- $4,114–$4,099: deeper “support B” and trend boundary for the current rally. ^[41]
Resistance zones:
- $4,250: currently the major ceiling; multiple attempts have stalled here. ^[42]
- $4,275–$4,300: Fibonacci and psychological band; a clear breakout could re‑ignite momentum toward analysts’ higher targets. ^[43]

On the MCX side, traders are watching ₹1,27,000 as a downside pivot and ₹1,34,000 as the next upside hurdle. ^[44]

Macro data and policy

In the coming days and weeks, gold traders will focus on:

U.S. weekly jobless claims (later today) and delayed Nonfarm Payrolls figures. ^[45]
Upcoming U.S. inflation releases (CPI and PCE), which will shape expectations for how quickly real yields can fall. ^[46]
Signals from future Fed speakers on whether last night’s cut truly marks a pause or merely a step in a longer easing cycle. ^[47]
Further headlines on geopolitical risks and central‑bank gold purchases, which have been powerful, though sometimes lagging, drivers of the 2025 rally. ^[48]

What today’s gold price means for investors (not financial advice)

Important: The following is general information, not personalized investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a qualified adviser.

Given gold’s historic run in 2025, today’s level around $4,200+ presents both opportunity and risk.

Short‑term traders

The trend is still up, with technicals and most models leaning bullish. Short‑term strategies often revolve around buying dips into support zones like $4,160–$4,200 and tightening risk near $4,250–$4,275. ^[49]
Volatility remains high. The BIS’s double‑bubble warning is a reminder that late‑cycle moves can unwind quickly if macro expectations shift or if there’s a broad risk‑off event where investors sell everything, including gold. ^[50]

Longer‑term holders

The long‑term case for gold—as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement and geopolitical shocks—remains supported by central‑bank buying and ETF inflows. ^[51]
However, starting valuations are high compared with previous cycles. The WGC’s baseline scenario of –5% to +5% for 2026 suggests that returns from here might be more modest unless we see a deeper downturn or renewed crisis. ^[52]

Practical ideas many investors consider (again, not advice):

Avoid “all‑in” bets at or near record highs.
Use position sizing and staggered entry points to manage risk.
Think about diversification: gold can be a hedge, but relying on it alone is risky—especially if the BIS is right about a twin bubble in gold and equities. ^[53]

Quick FAQ: gold price today

1. Why is the gold price holding above $4,200 today?
Because the Fed just cut rates again, pushing yields and the dollar lower, while central‑bank buying, geopolitical worries and silver’s breakout all continue to support safe‑haven demand. ^[54]

2. Is gold near all‑time highs?
Yes. With spot around $4,210–$4,230 and a 52‑week high above $4,380, gold remains close to record territory after setting 50+ new highs already in 2025. ^[55]

3. What are the most important levels to watch now?
On the downside, $4,200, $4,164–$4,154 and $4,114–$4,099. On the upside, $4,250, then $4,275–$4,300. A break of either band could set the tone into early 2026. ^[56]

4. Are analysts expecting gold to go higher or lower in 2026?
Views are split: some see a range‑bound year (–5% to +5%), others forecast moves toward $4,900–$5,300 if central‑bank demand and Fed easing stay supportive. ^[57]