Gold Price Today, December 9, 2025: XAU/USD Hovers Near $4,190 as Fed Rate Cut Decision Looms

Global gold prices are treading water just below record highs on Tuesday, with traders reluctant to make big bets ahead of a closely watched U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could set the tone for the metal into 2026.

Spot gold is trading around $4,190–$4,200 per ounce, only a short distance from this year’s all‑time high near $4,380, after an extraordinary 2025 rally that has seen the metal gain more than 60% and log over 50 record closes. ^[1]

Below is a detailed roundup of today’s gold price, key drivers, and the latest forecasts and analysis dated December 9, 2025.

Gold price today: XAU/USD steady near $4,190

Across major data providers, spot gold prices today cluster tightly around the mid‑$4,100s:

Spot gold is quoted near $4,195 per ounce, with TradingEconomics showing a last trade around $4,195.06, up roughly 0.1% on the day. ^[2]
Moneycontrol reports spot gold around $4,196 in early Asian trade, with prices caught in a narrow intraday range as markets wait for the Fed decision. ^[3]
Live feeds from bullion dealers such as JM Bullion and retail trackers like PriceGold show spot levels in the $4,190–$4,200 band, broadly consistent with these benchmarks. ^[4]

Futures markets tell a similar story. On Monday, February COMEX gold futures hovered around $4,230 per ounce, while spot gold briefly ticked above $4,200 as the U.S. dollar drifted near a five‑week low. ^[5]

Despite today’s subdued price action, the metal remains within striking distance of this year’s peak just above $4,381, a level technical analysts flag as the next major resistance if bullish momentum resumes. ^[6]

Fed rate decision, dollar and yields drive today’s gold mood

The dominant theme in the gold market today is monetary policy.

Markets price in a December rate cut

Traders are overwhelmingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at the end of its two‑day meeting that concludes on December 10:

The Times of India notes that futures markets assign about 90% odds to a quarter‑point cut on Wednesday and a further cut by April. ^[7]
Moneycontrol cites CME FedWatch probabilities implying an 87% chance that the Fed trims rates to a 3.50–3.75% target range at this meeting. ^[8]

Recent U.S. macro data have reinforced these expectations. Private payrolls showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, is running at about 2.8% year‑on‑year, easing from previous peaks but still slightly above target. ^[9]

Dollar soft, yields firm – a mixed backdrop for bullion

The impact of policy expectations on gold is nuanced:

Investing.com reports that gold traded in a tight range on Monday as the U.S. dollar stayed near a five‑week low, helping to support bullion prices around the $4,200 mark. ^[10]
At the same time, Indian and global coverage highlight that U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields have climbed to their highest in roughly two–three months, raising the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold and capping further upside for now. ^[11]

Analysts broadly agree that the tone of the Fed’s guidance – not just the cut itself – will be decisive. A “hawkish cut” that hints at a slower path of easing could push yields higher and weigh on gold, while a more dovish message could send the metal back toward record territory.

FXEmpire’s latest XAU/USD note frames this week as a classic “Fed‑week volatility event,” with traders keeping a bullish bias as long as spot prices stay above key support zones, but ready to react quickly to any surprise in the Fed’s new dot plot or projections. ^[12]

Gold price today in India, Vietnam and other key markets

While global spot prices set the reference, local gold rates reflect currency moves, taxes and domestic demand dynamics.

India: 24K gold near ₹130,000 per 10 grams

In India, one of the world’s largest gold consumers:

Moneycontrol reports MCX December gold futures around ₹129,920 per 10 grams, with analysts projecting a near‑term range of ₹128,500–₹132,000 as traders track the Fed decision and rupee moves. ^[13]
The Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) reference rate is quoted near ₹128,592 per 10 grams for standard gold. ^[14]
According to ABP Live’s city‑wise survey, 24‑carat gold is trading around ₹13,000 per gram (≈₹130,000 per 10g) in major metros such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Kolkata, while 22‑carat rates are clustered near ₹11,925–₹12,000 per gram. ^[15]

Indian commentary consistently notes that global rate‑cut expectations and a slightly weaker rupee are helping to keep domestic prices elevated even as intraday moves remain modest. ^[16]

Vietnam: gold bar prices jump despite softer world price

In Vietnam, domestic bullion is trading at a steep premium to international prices:

VietBao reports that major brands SJC, DOJI and PNJ lifted gold bar prices by 300,000 VND per tael, with bars now selling around 154.5 million VND per tael. ^[17]
By contrast, the world gold price is quoted near $4,183 per ounce, equivalent to roughly 133.1 million VND per tael at the prevailing Vietcombank exchange rate – about 21 million VND per tael below domestic bar prices. ^[18]

Vietnamese coverage links the continued domestic strength to local demand and structural factors, while also highlighting global drivers such as expectations of a Fed cut and an ongoing wave of central bank gold purchases, including from the People’s Bank of China. ^[19]

Technical outlook: support zones and resistance near record highs

Today’s quiet tape hides a lively debate among technical analysts about where gold might head next.

Key support and resistance levels

The Times of India’s December 9 technical note outlines a “buy on dips” view, with the following spot gold levels in focus: ^[20]

Support: $4,160 / $4,115 / $4,085 / $4,050 per ounce
Resistance: $4,245 / $4,300 / $4,381 (all‑time high)

FXEmpire’s separate weekly analysis points to a similar structure:

Gold settled recently around $4,198.68, staying comfortably above a key pivot near $4,134, defined as the 50% retracement of a prior rally.
As long as spot remains above this area, technicians see the path of least resistance as higher, with potential retests of the recent high near $4,265 and, if momentum accelerates, the all‑time high just above $4,381.
A break below the pivot would expose deeper support zones near $4,075 and then the October swing low around $3,886–$3,850. ^[21]

Several TradingView‑hosted analyses echo this view, describing the current phase as a bullish consolidation where pullbacks into the low‑$4,100s are being bought, but warning that a decisive failure of those supports could trigger a sharper correction after 2025’s parabolic move. ^[22]

What analysts are saying today: “buy the dips” – with caveats

A number of strategists publishing on December 9 describe the near‑term gold outlook as constructively bullish, but stress that volatility around the Fed decision could be significant.

Near‑term sentiment

The Times of India notes that gold is “poised for an upward trend driven by positive global signals,” citing Fed easing expectations, rising fiscal concerns and deteriorating U.S. labour data as supportive forces. Its featured analyst recommends a “buy on dips” approach while watching how yields and the dollar react to the Fed. ^[23]
Moneycontrol highlights Indian strategists who see MCX gold holding a positive bias in the ₹128,500–₹132,000 band, with rupee weakness and global safe‑haven demand providing additional tailwinds. ^[24]
VietBao emphasises that world gold prices, though slightly off recent highs, remain underpinned by expectations of continued Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar, even as domestic Vietnamese prices surge. ^[25]

Flows, central banks and the BIS warning

Positioning and flows also feature heavily in today’s commentary:

The Times of India cites data showing global gold ETF holdings up about 18% year‑to‑date and COMEX eligible inventories down nearly 19% from 2025 highs, suggesting investors have been steadily adding exposure even as available warehouse stocks tighten. ^[26]
China’s central bank has extended its gold‑buying streak to a 13th straight month, adding another 30,000 ounces in the latest update and taking reported reserves above 74 million ounces this year, according to Vietnamese and regional reporting. ^[27]
At the same time, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is quoted warning that a “retail gold buying frenzy” has nudged gold away from its traditional defensive pattern toward more speculative behaviour, noting that the recent simultaneous rally in equities and gold is rare in the past half‑century. ^[28]

In other words, while professional and official‑sector buying remains a key pillar of the rally, authorities are increasingly sensitive to the risk of overheating.

2025: a historic year for gold

Today’s sideways trading needs to be viewed against the backdrop of an exceptional year for the yellow metal.

The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates that by the end of November, gold was up about 60.6% in dollar terms, making 2025 one of its four strongest years since 1971. ^[29]
Euronews notes that gold has logged more than 50 all‑time highs this year and currently leads most major asset classes in year‑to‑date performance, on track for its best year since 1979. ^[30]

The WGC attributes this surge to a blend of drivers rather than a single shock:

Elevated geopolitical and geoeconomic risk, including persistent conflicts and rising trade tensions.
A generally weaker U.S. dollar and slightly lower real interest rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Strong investment flows, including ETF inflows estimated at roughly US$77 billion and more than 700 tonnes of added ETF holdings since mid‑2024. ^[31]
Central bank demand that remains well above pre‑pandemic norms, with official‑sector purchases on track for 750–900 tonnes in 2025 after several consecutive years above 1,000 tonnes. ^[32]

Reuters’ Breakingviews column goes further, arguing that gold’s “bubble‑like” price behaviour may in fact signal a paradigm shift. The piece notes that central banks have been buying over a thousand tonnes annually in recent years while many private investors remain under‑exposed, and contends that gold is increasingly being treated as the ultimate sanction‑proof reserve asset after Western sanctions froze Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022. ^[33]

2026 gold price forecasts: cautious base cases vs $5,000+ bulls

With gold already near record levels, today’s analysis is increasingly focused on how sustainable the rally is into 2026.

World Gold Council’s scenario map

The WGC’s Gold Outlook 2026 and the Euronews summary published today outline a scenario‑based framework rather than a single point forecast: ^[34]

Baseline “macro consensus”: Gold appears broadly fairly valued at today’s levels, with 2026 returns likely constrained to roughly –5% to +5%, assuming stable global growth, modest further Fed cuts (about 75 bps) and a slightly firmer dollar.
“Shallow slip” scenario: If growth softens and risk appetite fades, gold could rise 5–15% in 2026 as investors rotate into defensive assets.
“Doom loop” scenario: In a deeper, synchronised global downturn with aggressive rate cuts and falling bond yields, the WGC estimates gold could jump 15–30% from current levels.
“Reflation return” scenario: If pro‑growth policies succeed and the Fed is forced to pause or even hike in 2026, gold could fall 5–20%, weighed down by higher yields, a stronger dollar and reduced demand for hedges.

In all cases, central bank purchasing and recycling dynamics are flagged as wildcards that could magnify either upside or downside. ^[35]

Wall Street targets: $4,400, $4,900, even $5,000+

Investment banks referenced by Euronews and Business Insider are, on balance, constructively bullish: ^[36]

J.P. Morgan Private Bank sees gold reaching $5,200–$5,300 per ounce in 2026, citing robust demand and ongoing diversification into gold.
Goldman Sachs forecasts prices around $4,900 by the end of next year, driven by sustained central bank buying and further monetary easing.
Deutsche Bank projects a range of $3,950–$4,950, with a base‑case target near $4,450, arguing that strong central‑bank and ETF demand justify an upgrade to its 2026 forecast.
Morgan Stanley expects gold to trade closer to $4,500, while warning of periodic corrections.
Bank of America is among the most bullish, suggesting prices could climb to around $5,000 (about 19% upside from late‑November spot levels), supported by large U.S. fiscal deficits and what it calls “unorthodox” macro policies.
HSBC is more cautious, looking for a $3,600–$4,400 range, with upside limited if central banks slow purchases once prices stay comfortably above $4,000.

Across these forecasts, there is broad agreement on a few themes:

Central bank buying and diversification away from the U.S. dollar are seen as durable supports.
Fed and global rate cuts reduce real yields, making gold more attractive as a non‑income‑generating asset.
Risks include a stronger‑than‑expected U.S. rebound, sticky inflation that forces the Fed to slow or reverse cuts, weaker ETF flows, or a pickup in recycling supply, especially from markets such as India where gold is heavily used as loan collateral. ^[37]

What to watch next for gold traders and investors

With gold parked just under $4,200 today, the next few sessions are likely to be driven by:

Fed decision and dot plot (December 10):
- A dovish signal (larger expected total cuts in 2026, softer inflation projections) could push XAU/USD back toward $4,245–$4,300 and potentially the all‑time high near $4,381. ^[38]
- A hawkish cut or reduced cuts for 2026 could boost yields and the dollar, testing supports at $4,160 and $4,115, with deeper pullbacks possible toward $4,075 or lower. ^[39]
U.S. data this week:
The Times of India points to JOLTS job openings (Dec 9), Employment Cost Index (Dec 10) and trade balance (Dec 11) as secondary drivers that could influence Fed expectations and, by extension, gold. ^[40]
China and global growth indicators:
Markets are also watching upcoming Chinese credit, CPI and PPI data, along with broader trade figures, for clues on global demand and the broader risk environment that has been so supportive for gold this year. ^[41]

Bottom line

Today, gold is marking time near $4,190–$4,200, with modest price moves masking the fact that the metal is sitting close to all‑time highs after a historic 60%+ rally in 2025. ^[42]
Near term, most analysts favour a cautiously bullish “buy‑the‑dip” stance, as long as key supports in the low‑$4,100s hold and the Fed sticks to a gradual easing path. ^[43]
Looking ahead to 2026, institutional forecasts range from sideways to sharply higher, with mainstream scenarios clustering around modest single‑digit gains, and more bullish houses – plus WGC’s “doom loop” scenario – pointing to the possibility of double‑digit upside if growth slows and geopolitical risk remains elevated. ^[44]

For investors, the message from today’s research is less about chasing every tick and more about position sizing and risk management. Gold has already delivered extraordinary returns this year; whether it continues to shine in 2026 will depend heavily on the Fed’s path, the durability of central‑bank buying and how long the current era of geopolitical and economic uncertainty lasts.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold and other financial assets can be volatile, and you should consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.