New York, July 10, 2026, 10:04 (EDT)
Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC dropped 2.5% to $109.68 at the start of Friday’s session, lagging behind the iShares Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXX, which slipped 0.6%. Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD added 1.3% while Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA was up 1.7%. Intel was alone in the red as chip stocks traded mixed.
The gap matters as Intel heads into its next earnings. The company has to show that its planned manufacturing rebound will line up with sales to outside clients. More of the bull case now comes down to two things: getting stronger in server chips and building up its contract manufacturing.
| Latest trade near 09:50 EDT | Price | Session move |
|---|---|---|
| Intel NASDAQ:INTC | $109.68 | -2.5% |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXX | $578.13 | -0.6% |
| Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD | $553.59 | +1.3% |
| Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA | $206.18 | +1.7% |
Intel Foundry posted $5.4 billion in segment revenue for the first quarter, with most of that coming from Intel’s own product units. CFO David Zinsner said less than $200 million came from outside customers, calling it “legacy business that we have mainly on the wafer side.” Reuters
Intel’s latest filing shows external sales at $174 million, up sharply from $31 million last year, a jump of about 461%. But Intel said most of that came from Altera, which became an external customer when Intel gave up control of that business. The move took Altera off Intel’s main books and changed how those numbers are counted. It doesn’t mean Intel picked up new major chip customers.
| Intel Foundry measure | Q1 2026 | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Total segment revenue | $5.421 billion | Mainly comes from internal business |
| External-customer revenue | $174 million | That’s 3.2% of total foundry revenue |
| External revenue, year-on-year | +461% | Most of the jump is from Altera’s reclassification |
| Foundry operating loss | $2.437 billion | Operating loss is 45% of revenue |
| External foundry share of Intel revenue | 1.3% | External is still negligible in total revenue |
The numbers tell the story. If you annualise external revenue from the first quarter, that would come out to around $696 million. Intel’s market cap is about $557 billion, making the ratio almost 801 times. That’s not a usual valuation metric, since Intel also has big processor operations. It does point to how small external foundry sales are right now, compared with what the market seems to expect for future demand.
William Blair weighed in with a more upbeat long-term view. Analyst Sebastien Naji said Intel could win back its edge in server CPUs over the next 1-2 years. The Coral Rapids chip, set for 2028, could be the key. CPUs, or central processing units, handle server OS and workloads.
Intel execs say moving from AI model training to inference is boosting demand for its chips and packaging. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called the shift “significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings.” The company expects second-quarter revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, and adjusted EPS of 20 cents. Intel Corporation
The risk on the downside is still big. Intel has warned it might halt or drop its next-gen 14A process and further tech if there’s not enough locked-in demand. If outside revenue keeps coming mostly from Altera and legacy wafer jobs while the foundry stays over $2 billion in the red per quarter, the stock could get a lower multiple for its projected future sales.
Intel is set to report Q2 results after the closing bell on July 23. Key numbers will include foundry revenue excluding Altera, foundry operating loss, data center and AI sales, and gross margin, or revenue percentage left after production costs.
Friday’s session doesn’t take a 2028 server rebound off the table, according to William Blair. The firm says Intel has to lay out the financial transition from factories mainly used for its own chips to fabs funded by external customers before then.
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