NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 10:25 ET — Regular session
JPMorgan Chase & Co shares edged down 0.2% to $323.18 in late morning trading on Tuesday, after touching an intraday high of $324.89. U.S. bank stocks were mixed, with Bank of America up 0.2%, while Citigroup fell 0.9% and Goldman Sachs slid 0.8%.
For JPMorgan, the biggest near-term driver remains the outlook for interest rates. Banks earn a large share of profits from net interest income — the spread between what they collect on loans and securities and what they pay out on deposits.
That spread matters now because traders are reassessing how quickly the Federal Reserve will ease policy in 2026 and whether funding markets stay calm around the turn of the year. Both can feed into loan pricing, deposit competition and the cost of carrying trading inventories.
Investors are also looking to the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, due at 2 p.m. ET, for clues on how divided policymakers were after cutting rates to a 3.50%-3.75% range. The quarter-point move drew three dissents, underscoring uncertainty over the path ahead.
Money markets offered another datapoint into year-end: eligible firms took $25.95 billion from the Fed’s standing repo facility on Monday, New York Fed data showed. The tool provides overnight cash against Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities and is designed to cushion sudden liquidity strains.
Liquidity has been thin across markets in the holiday-shortened week, amplifying price swings. “Financial conditions are easy,” Guy Miller, Zurich Insurance Group’s chief market strategist, said. Reuters
Rates traders have been weighing whether that ease lasts. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were around 4.1% at the start of the week, after a rally that helped core U.S. bonds notch their best annual return since 2020, Reuters reported, with traders pricing roughly 60 basis points of easing in 2026.
In that backdrop, JPMorgan’s stock has been moving more with the sector’s rate sensitivity than with company-specific headlines. A steeper yield curve — the gap between short- and long-term rates — typically helps lenders, while a flatter curve can squeeze profitability.
Next up is bank earnings season. JPMorgan said it will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on January 13, 2026, with results due around 7 a.m. ET ahead of an 8:30 a.m. ET conference call.
Investors will be listening for updates on deposit pricing, loan growth and credit quality after a year in which rate cuts shifted the earnings mix across the industry. Any guidance on expenses and capital return will also be in focus, given increased scrutiny on costs and buybacks across large banks.
Before then, traders said the tape is likely to remain headline-driven. The test for JPMorgan and its peers is whether the Fed minutes change expectations for 2026 cuts — and whether money markets stay orderly as year-end balance sheet pressures fade.
