NEW YORK, April 6, 2026, 14:07 EDT
Spot silver dipped 0.9% to $72.32 an ounce by 11:22 a.m. ET on Monday. Gold barely budged, while both platinum and palladium gave up ground. Bart Melek, TD Securities’ global head of commodity strategy, pointed out that a prolonged conflict involving Iran could drive oil higher and stoke inflation, which would tighten the leash on central banks looking to cut rates.
This comes as metals markets tread a fine line. Last month, the Federal Reserve left its policy range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Monday’s ISM services survey clocked prices paid at 70.7, a level not seen since October 2022. BMO economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy called the numbers a reason to “reinforce the case for patience.” Federal Reserve
The U.S. jobs data out Friday only reinforced that sentiment. March nonfarm payrolls surged by 178,000—nearly triple the 60,000 economists had projected in the Reuters poll—while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. “If you’re hoping for cuts, this report does nothing to improve your hopes,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Reuters
Market forecasts are moving. On Monday, Wells Fargo Investment Institute dropped its outlook for any Fed rate cuts in 2026. Citigroup, for its part, now sees the Fed’s first cut coming in September instead of June.
Silver stayed under pressure despite the softer greenback. The dollar index dropped to 99.809 on Monday, with Brent crude holding close to $110 a barrel. Saxo’s chief investment strategist Charu Chanana pointed out that every fresh ultimatum “made the disruption look ‘longer, stickier and more macro-negative.’” Reuters
The focus shifts to the calendar: Fed minutes from the March 17-18 meeting will land April 8, with Personal Consumption Expenditures—PCE—set for April 9, and the March Consumer Price Index due April 10.
Supply remains a factor lurking in the background. Back in February, the Silver Institute projected a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit for 2026. Physical investment is expected to climb 20%, even as industrial demand relaxes; silver finds its way into solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, and jewelry. The metal spiked to a record $121.60 on Jan. 29, then pulled back.
Still, headlines from the Gulf might set the tone next. U.S., Iranian, and regional mediators are working on a possible ceasefire plan that could see the Strait of Hormuz reopen. Trump’s put a deadline on the table—Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET. If talks find traction, energy markets could see relief, taking some of the heat off silver. But if things break down, inflation worries and rate expectations stay in the driver’s seat.
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