December 25, 2025 — Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is ending 2025 with something investors tend to enjoy: momentum with a story behind it. Even with U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day, Merck shares are in focus after a late-December climb that pushed the stock to fresh highs, helped along by a major Wall Street upgrade and a burst of pipeline and regulatory headlines. [1]
Below is what’s moving Merck stock, what the latest MRK forecasts imply for 2026, and the near-term catalysts (and risks) that could decide whether this rally is the start of a new chapter—or just a year-end sugar rush.
Merck stock price today: where MRK stands heading into year-end
Merck last traded around $106.45 on December 24, the final U.S. session before the Christmas Day holiday, after a strong stretch that pushed shares to a new 52-week high in the $106.5 area, according to MarketBeat’s tracking. [2]
Third-party performance recaps emphasize how sharp the move has been: a Trefis note dated December 25 describes MRK as posting a six-day winning streak totaling about 8.3%, tying the rally to a blend of analyst action and pipeline updates. [3]
Why MRK stock has been running: an upgrade plus pipeline headlines
Merck’s recent strength isn’t coming from one single headline—it’s coming from a cluster of “this could matter” developments that investors tend to reward in big pharma:
1) BMO upgrade: “Outperform” and a $130 price target
A key spark was BMO Capital Markets upgrading Merck to Outperform and raising its price target to $130 (from $82), arguing Merck is building a portfolio that can sustain growth beyond Keytruda’s eventual loss of exclusivity later this decade. [4]
That’s a big claim—and it lands at a sensitive time for Merck, because the company’s dominance in immuno-oncology has also created a concentration risk (more on that below).
2) A pipeline one-two punch (oncology + cardiopulmonary)
In mid-December, Merck announced positive Phase 3 data in bladder cancer combining Keytruda with an antibody-drug conjugate, while European regulators advanced the outlook for WINREVAIR in pulmonary arterial hypertension. [5]
That combination—oncology durability + newer franchises scaling up—is precisely the kind of narrative that can re-rate a large-cap pharma stock.
Pipeline catalyst: KEYNOTE-B15 (Keytruda + Padcev) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer
On December 17, Merck said the Phase 3 KEYNOTE‑B15 (EV‑304) trial met key endpoints in cisplatin-eligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). In Merck’s topline description, Keytruda (pembrolizumab) plus Padcev (enfortumab vedotin) delivered a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in:
- Event-free survival (EFS) (primary endpoint)
- Overall survival (OS) (key secondary endpoint)
- Pathologic complete response (pCR) rates
…versus neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery. [6]
Merck also emphasized that the safety profile was consistent with known profiles and that the companies plan to share results with regulators for potential filings. [7]
Pfizer, a partner on Padcev, likewise highlighted that the study met the primary endpoint for EFS and showed an OS benefit as a key secondary endpoint. [8]
Why this matters for MRK stock: Investors are unusually sensitive to anything that strengthens Keytruda’s competitive moat and expands its footprint into earlier-stage cancers—because earlier-stage settings can mean large patient populations and long durations of therapy. Merck’s own framing explicitly leans into that “move earlier” thesis. [9]
Regulatory catalyst: FDA priority vouchers for enlicitide and sac‑TMT
What happened
Reuters reported that the U.S. FDA granted national priority review vouchers to Merck for two programs:
- Enlicitide (a cholesterol-lowering pill targeting PCSK9)
- sac‑TMT (sacituzumab tirumotecan), an antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapy candidate [10]
The voucher program, launched in June, is designed to cut review time to one to two months from the typical 10–12 months for drugs deemed important to public health or national security needs. [11]
Why investors care
From a stock perspective, this is less about “instant approval” (that’s not what it means) and more about timeline compression. Speed matters in pharma because it can:
- Pull forward potential launch dates
- Reduce uncertainty windows
- Improve the net present value of a program (money now beats money later—especially in a high-rate world)
Reuters also reported, based on internal documents, that the FDA expected Merck to submit applications for enlicitide in April 2026 and sac‑TMT in October or November 2026. [12]
Policy risk (and clarity): Merck’s drug-pricing agreement with the Trump administration
Drug pricing policy is the ever-present thundercloud over U.S. pharma valuations—sometimes loud, sometimes distant, always there.
On December 19, Merck announced it reached an agreement with the Trump administration aimed at making its prescription medicines “accessible and affordable,” including direct-to-patient pricing for certain products. Merck said this includes JANUVIA, JANUMET and JANUMET XR, offered to eligible patients at a cash price described as approximately 70% off current list price, and that it intends to expand the program to include enlicitide if approved. [13]
Merck also said it reached an understanding with the U.S. Department of Commerce to delay Section 232 tariffs for three years, tied to planned U.S. investments. [14]
In parallel, the Associated Press reported that President Donald Trump announced nine large drugmakers—including Merck—agreed to lower drug prices for Medicaid to align with prices in other developed countries and apply “most-favored-nation” pricing concepts for new drugs, alongside a plan for a TrumpRx platform enabling direct purchases. [15]
How the market may interpret this:
Policy-driven pricing pressure is usually viewed as a margin headwind. But markets also like certainty. A clear framework—especially one tied to specific programs and timelines—can be “less bad” than open-ended political risk. The fact that Reuters linked some priority voucher awards to pricing deals adds another layer: policy negotiations may now interact directly with regulatory speed. [16]
Merck’s fundamentals: Keytruda strength, Gardasil headwinds, and a growing “next wave”
The last full earnings snapshot investors have is Merck’s third-quarter 2025 report.
Merck reported Q3 2025 sales of $17.3 billion (+4% year over year), with Keytruda sales of $8.1 billion (+10%). [17]
But the same report highlights a key pressure point: GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9 sales declined 24% to $1.7 billion, a dynamic Reuters tied to vaccine softness in China (including reduced demand and shipment timing). [18]
Merck’s updated full-year outlook (as of October 30) included:
- Revenue: $64.5B–$65.0B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $8.93–$8.98 [19]
Meanwhile, Merck continues to point investors toward newer growth pillars. In Q3 highlights, Merck listed:
- WINREVAIR sales of $360 million
- CAPVAXIVE sales of $244 million [20]
European momentum: Keytruda “under-the-skin” and WINREVAIR expansion signals
Two Europe-facing updates stand out going into 2026:
Keytruda subcutaneous approval in the EU
Merck said the European Commission approved a subcutaneous route of administration for Keytruda for all adult indications already approved in the EU, describing it as the first and only subcutaneous immune checkpoint inhibitor in Europe that can be administered in as little as one minute by a healthcare provider. [21]
WINREVAIR: positive CHMP opinion for expanded use
On December 12, Merck announced the EMA’s CHMP recommended an expanded indication for WINREVAIR (sotatercept) to include adults with PAH in WHO functional classes II, III, and IV, with a final European Commission decision expected in Q1 2026. [22]
Merck also pointed to Phase 3 ZENITH results showing a reduction in risk of major morbidity and mortality outcomes, and noted the trial was stopped early due to efficacy at interim analysis. [23]
Translation for MRK investors: This is the kind of “new franchise scaling” story that matters when your flagship (Keytruda) eventually faces biosimilar pressure.
Merck’s diversification play: Verona Pharma and Ohtuvayre
Merck’s push beyond oncology isn’t just internal R&D—it’s also M&A.
Merck completed its acquisition of Verona Pharma on October 7, adding Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine), a first-in-class COPD maintenance treatment. Merck said the deal was valued at approximately $10 billion and expected to reduce non-GAAP EPS by about $0.16 in the first 12 months (primarily financing costs, partially offset by Ohtuvayre performance). [24]
The Financial Times framed the Verona deal as part of Merck’s broader effort to strengthen its portfolio ahead of Keytruda’s eventual patent cliff. [25]
Wall Street forecasts for MRK: where analyst targets cluster now
Analyst targets for Merck are not unanimous—and that dispersion is itself a signal that the market is still debating the post-Keytruda era.
Here’s what major trackers show as of mid-to-late December:
- StockAnalysis: consensus rating “Buy,” average price target $111.93, with a range $85 to $130 [26]
- MarketBeat: average price target $110.13 (range $85 to $130) [27]
- TipRanks: average price target $116.38, with a high forecast of $139 and a low of $95 [28]
And then there’s the high-profile catalyst target:
- BMO’s $130 target following its upgrade [29]
How to read this: Merck is currently priced like a mature mega-cap pharma, but analysts are actively testing the thesis that the company can become a multi-engine growth story again—oncology plus cardiopulmonary plus cardio-metabolic—rather than a “Keytruda-only” narrative.
The big risks investors keep circling (because reality is always in the room)
Even with positive headlines, Merck’s investment case still has a few gravitational risks:
- Keytruda concentration + patent/loss-of-exclusivity risk. Analysts explicitly frame Merck’s strategic challenge as sustaining growth beyond Keytruda’s exclusivity window later this decade. [30]
- Vaccine volatility (especially Gardasil in China). Merck’s Q3 results highlighted a sharp Gardasil decline, which Reuters tied to China-related demand and shipment dynamics. [31]
- Drug pricing and policy pressure. Merck’s own agreement announcement and AP’s reporting on broader price commitments underscore that pricing policy is not hypothetical—it’s active. [32]
- Pipeline execution risk. Fast-track vouchers and Phase 3 wins are meaningful, but approvals, labeling, reimbursement, adoption, and competition still determine commercial reality. (Merck itself includes the standard reminder: no guarantees pipeline candidates receive approval or succeed commercially.) [33]
What to watch next for Merck stock in 2026
If you’re tracking MRK into the new year, the next “calendar catalysts” are unusually clear:
- EU decision on expanded WINREVAIR indication (expected Q1 2026, per Merck/Business Wire distribution) [34]
- FDA filing timing for enlicitide (expected April 2026, per Reuters) [35]
- FDA filing timing for sac‑TMT (expected Oct/Nov 2026, per Reuters) [36]
- More detail on KEYNOTE‑B15 as full data are presented at a medical meeting and discussed with regulators [37]
- How the pricing agreement plays out in practice—especially whether it alters expectations for margins, volumes, and political risk overhang [38]
Bottom line: Merck enters 2026 with momentum—and a narrative investors can model
As of December 25, 2025, Merck stock is benefiting from a rare alignment: bullish analyst action, credible pipeline catalysts, and policy developments that (at least temporarily) reduce uncertainty. [39]
The argument for bulls is straightforward: Merck isn’t just defending Keytruda—it’s laying track for what comes after, via cardiopulmonary growth (WINREVAIR, Ohtuvayre), cardio-metabolic shots on goal (enlicitide), and next-gen oncology bets (including antibody-drug conjugates like sac‑TMT). [40]
The argument for skeptics is equally simple: Merck still must prove these engines can scale fast enough to offset the eventual Keytruda cliff—while navigating vaccine demand swings and a U.S. pricing environment that is clearly tightening. [41]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.trefis.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.merck.com, 6. www.merck.com, 7. www.merck.com, 8. www.pfizer.com, 9. www.merck.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.merck.com, 14. www.merck.com, 15. apnews.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.merck.com, 18. www.merck.com, 19. www.merck.com, 20. www.merck.com, 21. www.merck.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.businesswire.com, 24. www.merck.com, 25. www.ft.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.merck.com, 33. www.merck.com, 34. www.businesswire.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.merck.com, 38. www.merck.com, 39. www.investing.com, 40. www.businesswire.com, 41. www.reuters.com
