Updated: Thursday, December 18, 2025 — 10:31 a.m. ET
Natural gas markets are navigating a familiar winter tug-of-war: a fresh, above-average U.S. storage withdrawal that underscores how quickly cold snaps can tighten balances, versus weather forecasts that still lean warmer-than-normal into early January and could cap demand.
By mid-morning Thursday, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures (front-month January) hovered around $4.12 per mmBtu, supported by near-record LNG export feedgas demand and a modest dip in Lower 48 production.
At the center of today’s trade: the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released at 10:30 a.m. Eastern.
Natural gas price today: What the market is signaling at 10:31 a.m. ET
The price action this morning reflects a market that’s trying to “price in” two realities at once:
- Demand can spike quickly when Arctic air reaches major population centers (and storage withdrawals can jump accordingly).
- Forward demand risk remains mixed, because updated forecasts still call for mostly warmer-than-normal U.S. weather through about January 2, a pattern that typically reduces heating load and slows withdrawals.
With futures near $4.12/mmBtu, traders are effectively saying: storage is no longer “excessively comfortable,” but it’s also not in a panic—especially while LNG flows and production remain the dominant daily levers. TradingView+1
EIA storage report today: 167 Bcf withdrawal brings inventories to 3,579 Bcf
The EIA reported that working gas in storage fell to 3,579 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 12, 2025, a withdrawal of 167 Bcf from the prior week’s level.
Why that number matters
Even before today’s report, the market was braced for a much larger-than-usual draw for mid-December, after a burst of extreme cold lifted heating demand. Reuters had noted expectations for a pull far above seasonal norms, with estimates clustered near the high end for this week.
How storage compares
According to the EIA’s release table:
- 3,579 Bcf in storage is about 1.7% below the year-ago level (3,640 Bcf).
- Storage is about 0.9% above the five-year (2020–2024) average (3,547 Bcf).
In other words, inventories are no longer “cushioned” by a big surplus, but they also aren’t materially scarce on a national basis—setting up a market that can still swing sharply on weather model changes.
Regional breakdown: where withdrawals hit hardest
The regional figures help explain why basis volatility can flare even when national storage looks “fine”:
- Midwest: -64 Bcf (stocks: 966 Bcf)
- East: -46 Bcf (stocks: 797 Bcf)
- South Central: -48 Bcf (stocks: 1,242 Bcf)
The East and Midwest remain the regions most sensitive to cold-driven demand spikes, while the South Central is heavily influenced by LNG export pulls and industrial load.
The big U.S. drivers: LNG feedgas, production, and a warmer-leaning forecast
LNG exports are still doing the heavy lifting
One of the strongest pillars under U.S. prices this month has been near-record feedgas flows to LNG export terminals. Reuters reported average flows to the eight major U.S. LNG plants around 18.5 Bcf/d so far in December, building on a record month in November.
That matters because LNG demand behaves like a steady “sink” for supply—often dampening the bearish impact of mild weather, especially when utilization is high.
Production remains high, even with a slight dip
U.S. dry gas production is still historically elevated. Reuters cited Lower 48 output averaging roughly 109.5 Bcf/d so far in December, slightly below November’s record pace.
Weather: the bearish wildcard
Forecasts showing warmer-than-normal conditions into early January are the main reason the market has struggled to hold onto early-winter rallies. Reuters noted that projected demand (including exports) was expected to fall meaningfully next week versus this week—exactly the kind of shift that can reduce storage withdrawals and pressure prices.
Europe and global gas today: TTF edges up, but supply is meeting demand
Across the Atlantic, European gas prices posted modest gains Thursday morning, supported by a colder demand outlook—yet traders continue to describe the market as largely rangebound.
- The Dutch TTF front-month was around €27.57/MWh (about $9.48/mmBtu) in morning trade, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
- Reuters also reported that despite colder weather increasing demand, pipeline and LNG deliveries were sufficient to meet needs, reinforcing the view that prices may trade sideways unless a new disruption hits.
In Asia, global benchmark prices also remain subdued, with Reuters noting Asian LNG pricing (JKM) near the same general range as Europe—reflecting a winter that, so far, has not generated sustained scarcity pricing.
Today’s wider natural gas news: LNG strategy, long-cycle supply, and shifting trade flows
Several major gas-linked headlines are shaping longer-term expectations beyond the daily weather tape:
Asia’s U.S. LNG imports are down in 2025
Reuters reporting based on Kpler data indicates Asia’s LNG imports from the U.S. fell in 2025, with total arrivals dropping versus 2024, driven heavily by China’s reduced buying amid escalating trade frictions.
That’s a meaningful signal for U.S. exporters and for the global LNG balance: if Asian pull weakens, Europe often becomes the “balancing market,” absorbing more spot cargoes when prices make sense.
Woodside’s LNG buildout faces “glut risk” scrutiny
Reuters highlighted how Woodside’s leadership transition comes as the company pushes forward with large LNG projects (including the Louisiana LNG development), while analysts warn that global supply growth in the 2030s could increase competition and pressure margins.
ADNOC secures $11 billion financing for future gas output
In the Middle East, Reuters reported that ADNOC landed $11 billion in structured financing tied to future gas production from its Hail and Ghasha development, which ADNOC has said targets 1.8 Bcf/d of gas production with a net-zero ambition.
For global markets, the takeaway is straightforward: long-cycle projects keep moving, and future LNG/gas supply competition remains a real theme—even if today’s prices are set mostly by weather.
Natural gas forecast: What to watch next (and what could move prices fast)
Here are the key catalysts traders will likely focus on from today into late December:
- Weather model shifts into late December
A single swing colder in key demand regions can quickly change storage expectations and spark short-covering—especially with storage now near the five-year average rather than comfortably above it. - LNG feedgas trends and terminal reliability
With LNG flows near record levels, any sustained outage can loosen balances fast; conversely, strong utilization can keep the market supported even during mild spells. - Production trajectory
Small changes in output matter more when storage is no longer “extra.” If production rebounds to new highs while weather stays mild, futures can slip quickly. TradingView - The next EIA storage report timing
The EIA’s next storage report is scheduled for Dec. 24, 2025 (holiday-adjusted timing is noted on the EIA schedule), making next week’s data potentially more impactful as liquidity thins into year-end.
Bottom line for Dec. 18, 2025
At 10:31 a.m. ET, natural gas is trading like a market that respects the winter risk but hasn’t committed to it. Today’s 167 Bcf EIA withdrawal confirms demand can still bite—and national inventories are no longer meaningfully above normal. But with forecasts leaning mild into early January and LNG flows acting as the key demand anchor, the next decisive move is likely to come from the weather models and LNG operations rather than storage alone.
