Brussels, March 30, 2026, 21:11 CEST
Europe’s benchmark natural gas price stuck close to 54 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) on Monday, with EU energy ministers scrambling for emergency talks on supply and storage after Middle East tensions drove gas sharply higher. The Dutch TTF hub—Europe’s key benchmark—sits well above where it was in late February, though officials insist short-term flows remain steady.
Why does it matter now? Europe’s heading into storage-refill season, but inventories are still running light. Brussels is urging countries to start pumping gas into caverns early after a more than 70% spike in prices since Feb. 28. Reuters, citing last week’s data, put EU storage at just 28% full on average.
Ripples are spreading fast. Germany’s EU-harmonised inflation jumped to 2.8% in March. Energy costs? Up 7.2% year-on-year. ZEW’s Friedrich Heinemann didn’t mince words, calling this rise “only the beginning.” Reuters
Gas supplies remain stretched far outside Europe. About a fifth of the world’s LNG typically moves through the Strait of Hormuz, but after disruptions in Qatar and ongoing shipping snags, major consultancies—S&P Global Energy, ICIS, Kpler, and Rystad Energy—have slashed their global supply forecasts for this year by up to 35 million tons.
Lucien Mulberg at S&P Global Energy thinks the crisis is likely to push some nations to reconsider their gas expansion strategies. According to Laura Page, LNG Insight manager at Kpler, “higher prices and demand destruction in South Asia” are already shifting the market—evidence, she says, that price-sensitive buyers are pulling back. Reuters
Some offsets are showing up. Exxon and QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass facility in Texas turned out its first LNG on Monday, with initial exports anticipated in the second quarter. Once the plant ramps up, full capacity reaches 18 million metric tons per year. Golden Pass chief Alex Savva called the launch “a significant effort.” Still, any actual supply boost will take time to materialize. Reuters
Buyers across the region remain on the lookout for flexible supply. Ukraine is pushing for more LNG through Greek terminals and the Vertical Corridor, with Naftogaz CEO Serhiy Koretskyi saying negotiations are centered on increased volumes “for Ukraine and for the Eastern European region.” Serbia, meanwhile, landed a three-month extension on its Russian gas contract, locking in prices at $320-$330 per 1,000 cubic metres.
Producers are shifting positions too. With Qatar’s outage, Australia has moved up to become the world’s second-largest LNG supplier, and it’s looking at a potential surge in revenue as prices climb. Shell Australia chair Cecile Wake pushed back against “short-term fixes” like a new export tax, as spot LNG prices in Asia have now doubled since the conflict started. Reuters
Governments are scrambling to keep the market in check. On Monday, G7 finance, energy and central bank chiefs signaled they’re prepared to take “all necessary measures” and called on nations to avoid export restrictions on oil, gas and related fuels. Reuters
There’s still a chance prices push higher. Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that shortages might hit Europe “as we get into April.” The European Commission did say last week there’s no short-term supply risk for the bloc, but if Hormuz shipping keeps running slow and buyers rush to stock up, that equilibrium could snap quickly. Reuters
