New York, January 13, 2026, 11:31 EST — Regular session
- Moderna shares rise about 12% in regular trading after the company updated its 2025 sales and spending outlook.
- Company reiterated its 2026 growth goal and flagged vaccine filings and late-stage trial readouts due this year.
- Investors are now looking to Feb. 13 results and early-2026 cancer vaccine data with Merck for clearer direction.
Moderna shares were up $3.97, or 11.7%, at $37.81 by late morning in New York, lifting the vaccine maker to one of the stronger movers in biotech trading.
The bounce comes as investors try to pin down what “post-pandemic Moderna” looks like — smaller, more volatile, and still dependent on seasonal vaccine demand that can shift fast. The company’s early look at 2025 is being read as a test of whether the slide has finally slowed.
Moderna said it expects about $1.9 billion in 2025 sales, near the top end of its $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion forecast, but far below the $18.4 billion it reported in 2022. CFO James Mock said U.S. retail vaccination rates fell roughly 26% year-over-year in 2025, and suggested that “up to 10%” growth would put 2026 sales around $2.1 billion — a figure he said the company is not formally guiding to. Moderna also said it does not expect its stand-alone flu shot or its COVID-flu combination shot to be approved in time for the 2026 respiratory-disease season, but sees them helping in 2027. Reuters
In a company statement tied to the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Moderna cut its 2025 GAAP operating expense outlook by $200 million to $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion. (GAAP is a standard U.S. accounting yardstick.) It also pegged year-end cash, cash equivalents and investments at about $8.1 billion, including a $600 million draw from a $1.5 billion term loan facility, and reiterated a target of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 with expected GAAP operating expenses of about $4.9 billion. “We reduced our annual operating expenses by approximately $2 billion,” CEO Stéphane Bancel said. Nasdaq
Moderna also laid out 2026 milestones across vaccines and therapeutics, with several late-stage readouts it says it expects this year. It said it has completed submissions for approval of its mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Europe, while its flu/COVID combination mRNA-1083 is under review in Europe and awaits U.S. FDA guidance on refiling; the company also flagged long-term melanoma data in early 2026 for its cancer vaccine program with Merck and additional late-stage updates in rare disease and infectious disease. Pivotal and registrational studies are late-stage trials designed to support product approval filings.
Some on Wall Street still see the cost reset as necessary but not quite sufficient. Jefferies analysts wrote that Moderna may need further reductions to build confidence in management’s 2028 cash breakeven target, and they modeled breakeven closer to 2029-2030.
Moderna’s shares fell 3.5% on Monday after the update, a reminder that “good enough” numbers have not always held gains in this trade. Barron’s
But the rally could fade if booster uptake weakens more than expected or if regulators push out vaccine timelines again. Several late-stage results are “binary” — meaning outcomes that can swing sharply one way or the other — and a miss would leave fewer near-term levers to pull.
Moderna’s near-term story still runs through vaccines, with competition for a smaller market and demand that can be sensitive to timing, policy and public uptake. Investors are watching whether flu and combination shots can widen the franchise enough to take pressure off the COVID base.
Next up is Moderna’s fourth-quarter and full-year report on Feb. 13, when traders expect more detail on 2026 sales drivers, spending and how management frames the year’s clinical and regulatory catalysts.
