NEW YORK, March 22, 2026, 14:42 (EDT).
U.S. mortgage rates kick off the week facing renewed upward pressure. On Friday, top-tier borrowers were seeing quotes at 6.53%—back over 6.5%, the highest mark since September 3. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average also climbed, reaching 6.22%, a level not seen since early December.
This spring’s selling season kicks off with borrowing costs on the rise once more. Last week’s refinance applications slid 19%, dragging total mortgage applications down 10.9%. Buyers, though, kept purchase demand in the green. Still, new-home sales took a sharp hit, down 17.6% in January to a 587,000 annual rate—the lowest since October 2022.
Housing supply hasn’t moved much. Instead, it’s the bond market driving the shift. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields pushed up toward 4.37% on Friday as investors braced for oil-fueled inflation to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for longer. Interest-rate futures are now reflecting about a 25% probability of a Fed hike by December. Mortgage rates, which typically mirror the 10-year yield, are responding in kind.
“Expectations for a rate cut are fading fast,” said Robert Pavlik at Dakota Wealth Management on Friday. Over at Mortgage News Daily, Matthew Graham pointed out that any return to the lows seen in February—rates hit 5.99% on Feb. 27 before bouncing higher—now appears “highly unlikely in the near term.” Reuters
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey continues to show mortgages under last year’s levels—the 15-year fixed landing at 5.54%, the 30-year at 6.22%, compared to 6.67% a year back. “A more affordable spring homebuying season” is still on the table, according to chief economist Sam Khater. But keep in mind, those Freddie Mac averages reflect application data through the previous Wednesday, and by Friday, Mortgage News Daily flagged a noticeable jump in daily rates. Freddie Mac
Looking at the next few days, not much is crowding the calendar. On Tuesday, March 24, Reuters notes that flash PMI numbers—those quick checks on factories and services—will be out, giving the first big snapshot since the latest jolt in energy. Thursday, March 26, includes the new Freddie Mac mortgage data and a slate of speeches from Fed officials Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, and Stephen Miran. Friday, March 27, wraps up with the final March read on University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
With the Census Bureau bumping February new-home sales to May 5 and moving February’s durable-goods orders to April 7, hard data are scarce.
Housing looked like it was picking up—pending home sales climbed 1.8% in February—but then rates shifted. Hannah Jones at Realtor.com flagged problems ahead, saying the “spring housing market could face headwinds” if issues like the Middle East conflict, inflation, and tariff uncertainty continue to push up mortgage rates and construction costs. Reuters
The housing outlook hasn’t budged much. A Reuters poll out this week has analysts expecting 30-year mortgage rates to hover near 6.0% through 2028, and ING’s James Knightley summed it up: the market is “basically not doing very much.” Affordability’s still a problem. Supply isn’t improving either. Reuters
Near-term risks aren’t one-sided. If oil prices cool off or upcoming survey numbers disappoint, Treasuries might find their footing and mortgage rates could ease back. Still, the larger threat hangs over another energy jolt. Brent wrapped up Friday at $112.19 per barrel. Then, over the weekend, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz should Washington strike Iranian energy infrastructure.
For borrowers, Monday’s moves in oil and bonds are shaping up as bigger drivers than anything on the housing slate. When those markets are unsettled, inflation worries and Treasury yields tend to call the tune on a typical 30-year U.S. mortgage—well before any of the usual spring-selling hopes can take hold.
