NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 09:06 EDT — U.S. cash market pre-open
- Futures for the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.16%, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.53%.
- July saw payrolls decrease by 23,000, while economists had projected a rise of 80,000.
- Traders now see the likelihood of a rate hike in September at roughly 20%.
U.S. stock futures climbed on Friday following an unexpected decline in jobs. Technology stocks advanced as Treasury yields slipped and anticipation of further rate hikes eased.
The market’s response provided the most direct indication from investors. The jobs report eliminated 206,000 positions from the information available before the release. This total included a 103,000 shortfall in July’s projection and 103,000 from downward adjustments.
The 206,000 number is an estimate rather than an official figure. Nasdaq futures gained 0.85 percentage point more than Dow futures. The yield on the two-year Treasury fell by nine basis points to 4.15%.
Comparison with major markets
At 08:46 EDT, Friday futures were steady. Weekly results are tracked through Thursday.
| Market | Thursday close | Thursday | Week to date | Friday futures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,709.96 | down 0.18% | up 2.9% | up 0.53% |
| Dow Jones industrials | 53,885.10 | down 0.85% | up 2.7% | up 0.31% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,348.35 | down 0.06% | up 3.8% | Nasdaq 100 up 1.16% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,001.55 | down 0.58% | up 2.4% | — |
The yield on the two-year note dropped to 4.15% from 4.24%, while the 10-year yield decreased by six basis points to 4.61%. After the report, traders reduced the probability of a rate hike in September from 55%.
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said, “Today’s numbers may reframe that conversation and put the labor side of the mandate in focus.” Reuters
July jobs data
| Measure | Latest figure | Previous or forecast | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | -23,000 | +80,000 forecast | -103,000 |
| May payrolls | +63,000 revised | +129,000 reported | -66,000 |
| June payrolls | +20,000 revised | +57,000 reported | -37,000 |
| Two-part information reduction | -206,000 | — | Calculated |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% in June | -0.1 point |
| Hourly earnings, year-on-year | +3.2% | +3.5% forecast | -0.3 point |
Derived from the July forecast shortfall and revisions for May and June. This is not an official BLS series.
The decline in the unemployment rate brought little comfort. The labor-force participation rate stayed at 61.4%, which is 0.7 percentage point lower than in January. The number of temporary layoffs rose by 153,000 to reach 921,000.
Employment in local government education declined by 50,000. Retail jobs decreased by 19,000, and financial activities shed 14,000 roles. Healthcare gained 22,000 jobs, remaining under its typical recent monthly growth.
Robust profits are offsetting worries about the economy. S&P 500 earnings for the second quarter showed 31.1% growth as of Wednesday. Technology sector profits increased by roughly 72%. The index was valued at 20.4 times projected earnings, compared with 22.2 at the end of the year.
Premarket earnings movers to watch
| Company | Premarket move | Reported catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Atlassian Corporation NASDAQ:TEAM | +32.5% | Adjusted EPS came in at $1.87, above $1.50 forecasts; revenue at $1.77 billion exceeded the $1.66 billion estimate. |
| Cloudflare Inc. NYSE:NET | +15.5% | Revenue hit $696.1 million, topping the $665.5 million forecast; company lifted yearly outlook. |
| Airbnb Inc. NASDAQ:ABNB | +7.0% | Revenue posted at $3.61 billion, beating $3.57 billion seen; annual guidance raised. |
| The Trade Desk Inc. NASDAQ:TTD | -29.2% | Revenue was $715 million, under the $752.6 million estimate; company issued weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance. |
The split is significant. Atlassian and Cloudflare helped calm concerns that artificial intelligence could wipe out software demand. Trade Desk demonstrated that investors continue to penalise operational missteps and disappointing outlooks.
The contrast underlines Friday’s main theme. Declining yields may boost long-duration valuations, but they do not save all earnings models.
Friday’s analyst ratings updates
| Company | Brokerage | Recommendation | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlassian | TD Cowen | Hold reaffirmed | $145 raised from $105 |
| Airbnb | Citizens | Market Outperform reiterated | $190 increased from $170 |
| Trade Desk | BMO Capital Markets | Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform | $15 reduced from $38 |
| Trade Desk | Truist Securities | Lowered to Hold from Buy | $16 decreased from $35 |
The anticipated rise on Friday would cap a robust week. As of Thursday, the Nasdaq was up 3.8%. Both the S&P 500 and Dow were on track for their strongest weekly performance since April.
Risks: A softening labor market may ultimately lead to lowered revenue and earnings forecasts. Fresh turmoil near the Strait of Hormuz could push up oil prices and bond yields. Both scenarios would put pressure on the rate-relief rally witnessed on Friday.
The cash market begins trading at 09:30 EDT. July consumer price data is set for release on Wednesday, August 12. Producer price figures are due on August 13, providing investors with another gauge of diminished expectations for further Fed rate hikes.
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