NEW YORK — Monday, December 15, 2025 (11:00 a.m. ET) — The Nasdaq is trying to steady itself at the start of the final full trading week of 2025, but the tape remains indecisive: a rebound in mega-cap tech is colliding with lingering concerns about whether the AI spending boom can deliver profits fast enough to justify today’s valuations.
By late morning, the Nasdaq Composite was seesawing between small gains and losses. Reuters reported the index up about 0.39% at 23,286.32 around 9:35 a.m. ET, while the Associated Press described the Nasdaq down about 0.2% as of 10 a.m. ET, underscoring the market’s whipsaw mood as investors reposition for a heavy slate of economic releases. [1]
Nasdaq market snapshot: why “up” and “down” can both be true today
The conflicting headlines aren’t an error so much as a reflection of the current market structure: thin conviction, fast sector rotation, and hypersensitivity to rates and AI narratives.
- Stocks opened with a mild bid in tech after last week’s pullback. Reuters highlighted rebounds in heavyweight names—Tesla up roughly 4.5% and Nvidia up about 1.1% early—as the broader market looked for a reset. [2]
- But AI-linked stocks remained a drag on sentiment, with AP noting Oracle down about 4.3% and Broadcom down about 2.7% in the morning session, keeping the Nasdaq from building sustained momentum. [3]
The result: a Nasdaq session where the direction can flip with one bond-yield move, one AI headline, or one preview of this week’s key U.S. data.
What’s driving Nasdaq today: AI doubts, rate uncertainty, and year-end rotation
1) AI trade is wobbling after a bruising week
Nasdaq’s biggest story right now is that the market’s defining theme—artificial intelligence—is also its most fragile.
Reuters’ Morning Bid recap captured the mood shift: after disappointing news from Oracle and Broadcom, tech investors are reassessing how quickly AI infrastructure spending turns into cash flow. The note highlighted sharp moves in the two names late last week (Oracle and Broadcom both fell heavily), with the tech-heavy Nasdaq taking the hit even as other corners of the market held up better. [4]
AP echoed the same underlying concern: billions flowing into chips and data centers may not deliver “big-enough payoff” in profits and productivity—an anxiety that matters most for the Nasdaq because of its concentration in high-growth technology and semiconductor leaders. [5]
2) Bond yields remain the Nasdaq’s “second earnings report”
For growth-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq, the discount rate still dictates a lot of the day-to-day action.
- AP reported the 10-year Treasury yield easing to about 4.15% from 4.19% late Friday, offering some breathing room for long-duration tech shares this morning. [6]
- But Reuters’ markets column warned that long-term yields have been rising even after the Federal Reserve cut rates last week, pointing out that the 30-year U.S. yield reached 4.867% last week (highest since early September) and that yield curves have been steepening. [7]
That combination—short rates edging lower, long rates popping higher—is an uncomfortable setup for Nasdaq bulls. It can compress valuations even if the Fed is cutting, because what matters for future cash flows is often the long end of the curve.
3) A late-year “rotation” is diluting Nasdaq leadership
Another factor: the market is behaving as if it wants broader leadership than just AI and mega-cap tech.
Reuters’ Morning Bid described a notable divergence late last week: the Nasdaq fell while the Dow notched strength, signaling sector rotation as investors try to de-risk the most crowded trades into year-end. [8]
Reuters’ separate market update also noted that 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher early Monday, a breadth signal that often accompanies rotation out of a narrow leadership cohort. [9]
For the Nasdaq, rotation isn’t necessarily bearish—but it can cap upside if money keeps flowing out of the highest-multiple tech names and into cyclicals, defensives, or dividend payers.
The week ahead: the data calendar could remake the Nasdaq narrative
If today’s Nasdaq trading feels reactive, it’s because investors are staring at a week that can quickly change expectations for the Fed—and therefore tech valuations.
Payrolls and inflation are the main events
Reuters said investors are bracing for nonfarm payroll figures for October and November due Tuesday, noting the October report was delayed by a government shutdown earlier in the quarter. [10]
AP added that economists expect the jobs report to show employers added about 40,000 jobs and that inflation is expected around 3.1% in Thursday’s update—numbers that matter because they shape the “soft landing vs. sticky inflation” debate. [11]
The key dynamic for Nasdaq traders is the one both Reuters and AP put plainly (via E*TRADE’s Chris Larkin): a “bad news is good news” setup—where softer labor data could boost rate-cut hopes, as long as it doesn’t scream recession. [12]
Fed chair speculation is also part of the price action
Politics is unusually market-relevant right now because it intersects directly with the rate path.
Reuters reported that President Donald Trump has narrowed his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair to Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett, a headline traders are digesting as they game out how dovish (or not) the next policy era could be. [13]
For the Nasdaq, any renewed conviction that the Fed will cut faster in 2026 tends to support valuations—unless long-term yields keep climbing for fiscal or inflation reasons.
Today’s Nasdaq stock movers: what investors are watching in real time
Even on a “macro” day, single-stock moves can swing the index because of concentration.
- Nvidia: up about 1.1% early, attempting to stabilize after last week’s tech volatility. [14]
- Tesla: up about 4.5% early, boosting consumer discretionary and helping risk appetite. [15]
- Oracle: down about 4.3% in morning trading after last week’s sharp drop, staying at the center of the “AI capex vs. profits” debate. [16]
- Broadcom: down about 2.7% in the morning, another bellwether for AI infrastructure expectations. [17]
- ServiceNow: down about 7.9% after a report tied it to acquisition talks for cybersecurity firm Armis, per Reuters. [18]
- iRobot: plunged after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection over the weekend, according to Reuters and AP—an example of how idiosyncratic single-stock risk still matters even in a headline-driven session. [19]
Forecasts and analysis: where strategists see Nasdaq heading next
The near-term view: “Santa rally” hopes vs. AI and yields
Reuters’ markets column framed the week as a test: investors may want the classic year-end “Santa rally,” but AI jitters and rising long-term yields could spoil the seasonal playbook. [20]
From a more technical perspective, FXEmpire’s analysis argued the Nasdaq-100 is attempting to recover into the week, highlighting the 50-day moving average as a key reference point and flagging 25,000 as an important nearby leveltraders are watching for support. [21]
The structural concern: Bridgewater’s warning on how the AI boom is being financed
One of the most consequential “Nasdaq narratives” today isn’t a price level—it’s capital structure.
Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen warned there is a “reasonable probability” markets could soon find themselves in a bubble phase, with costs rising beyond what internal cash flows can support. Reuters also cited a UBS report showing AI data center and project financing deals surged to $125 billion through November 2025, from $15 billion in the same period of 2024—a dramatic acceleration that raises the stakes if AI returns don’t materialize quickly. [22]
For the Nasdaq, this matters because the index is packed with the companies most exposed to the AI capex cycle—either as builders of infrastructure (chips, cloud, hardware) or as firms priced for rapid AI-enabled growth.
The 2026 framing: Wall Street expects AI to persist, but leadership may broaden
Looking beyond the week, Reuters reported Citi set a 2026 year-end target of 7,700 for the S&P 500, expecting AI to remain a central theme but arguing the focus may shift from “AI enablers” to companies adopting AI, creating a “winner versus loser” dynamic. [23]
That framing is particularly relevant to the Nasdaq: if the market’s next phase is about AI monetization, not just AI infrastructure buildout, leadership inside the index could rotate—potentially away from the most expensive “picks-and-shovels” names toward software, platforms, and businesses that show measurable productivity gains.
Nasdaq-100 news: Ferrovial’s addition highlights a broader Nasdaq footprint
Not all Nasdaq news is about day-to-day trading. On December 15, Reuters reported that Spanish infrastructure group Ferrovial will become the first IBEX 35-listed company to join the Nasdaq-100, effective December 22, about 18 months after its U.S. market debut. [24]
While the Nasdaq-100 is often treated as a “big tech” proxy, changes like this underline how the benchmark increasingly captures a broader set of global, innovation-adjacent large caps.
Nasdaq exchange policy: listing fee changes filed, effective in 2026
Separate from the indexes, regulatory filings around Nasdaq’s own listing business are also in focus. A Federal Register notice dated December 15 states Nasdaq filed a proposed rule change to modify entry and all-inclusive annual fees for certain companies, with Nasdaq designating the amendments to be operative on January 1, 2026. [25]
For issuers and investors, changes like these can influence where companies choose to list and how the economics of public markets evolve—especially as competition among venues remains intense.
Bottom line: Nasdaq’s next move depends on a “three-way test”
As of 11:00 a.m. ET on December 15, the Nasdaq story is less about a single headline and more about whether three forces can align:
- AI confidence returns (or at least stabilizes) after last week’s warning shots from major bellwethers. [26]
- Rates cooperate, with long-term yields not rising fast enough to undercut tech valuations. [27]
- Economic data supports the “soft landing” script—weak enough to justify easing, not so weak it signals recession. [28]
If Tuesday’s payrolls and Thursday’s inflation numbers validate that sweet spot, Nasdaq’s year-end rally case strengthens. If yields jump again or AI skepticism deepens, the index may remain stuck in the kind of choppy, rotational market investors are seeing this morning. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.federalregister.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. apnews.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
