New York, Jan 20, 2026, 17:19 (EST) — After-hours
U.S. natural gas prices surged Tuesday, with the front-month NYMEX Henry Hub contract closing up 25.9% at $3.907 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the standard measure for gas pricing.
This move carries weight now because the market had been sliding amid a mild start to winter and steady supply, leaving traders braced for further declines. “It could be the toughest test for the heating oil and natural-gas markets in a decade,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told MarketWatch, citing an Arctic air mass and a two-week period of heightened heating demand. MarketWatch
The signal from the weather is clear. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center predicts Arctic air outbreaks will continue to impact the central and eastern U.S. through late January. The coldest conditions are expected to move toward the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast by month-end.
Earlier, prices surged as much as 27% after colder weather forecasts prompted traders to cover shorts — bets that prices would drop — Reuters reported. The rally widened the front-month premium over the second-month to 78 cents, the largest gap since 2014, and pushed 30-day futures volatility to 116.4%, its highest level since April 2023, according to Reuters. LSEG estimated January Lower 48 output at 108.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) and projected demand, including exports, to climb to 168.8 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, cash prices in New York soared to $11.76 per mmBtu, while Waha in West Texas remained negative, meaning sellers are essentially paying buyers to take gas due to pipeline bottlenecks trapping supply.
Gas-linked stocks followed the after-hours momentum. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed nearly 19.8%. Expand Energy rose 4.9%, EQT gained 1.9%, Coterra added around 2.0%, and Antero Resources increased 1.5%.
Jefferies boosted its price target on EQT to $71 from $68 and kept a Buy rating intact, anticipating fourth-quarter EBITA to land near the upper boundary of its guidance.
The setup works both ways. If upcoming weather forecasts ease the cold or production rebounds sharply, the market—having just repriced volatility—could lose gains just as quickly.
Up next: the government’s take on inventories. The EIA’s most recent weekly update reported working gas in storage at 3,185 billion cubic feet as of Jan. 9. That’s still higher than both the five-year average and last year’s figures. The next report is due Jan. 22, a key date for traders gauging if the cold snap is driving larger withdrawals.
