New York, Feb 4, 2026, 10:12 (EST) — Regular session
NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures rose about 12 cents, or 3.6%, to around $3.43 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Wednesday morning. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was up about 2.4% in New York trading. 1
The bounce follows a punishing reset earlier this week, when the front-month contract logged its biggest one-day percentage drop since 1995 after mid-February forecasts shifted warmer. The March contract settled down 25.7% at $3.237 on Monday, Bloomberg reported. 2
Now the market is bracing for Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report, a weekly print that can move prices when it surprises. Analysts surveyed by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, see a 366 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal for the week ended Jan. 30 — a withdrawal is gas pulled out of storage to meet demand — and that would be a record if confirmed. “It’s a draw for the ages,” Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group said in a Feb. 3 interview, calling the setup “a perfect storm.” 3
The gas market’s global link is still the export channel. At an LNG (liquefied natural gas) conference in Doha, Eni’s Cristian Signoretto said 2026 looks “finely balanced” because low European storage and thin supply buffers leave little room for another weather shock. 4
Corporate updates have also underscored how quickly regional prices can detach from the benchmark when cold hits. Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan told Reuters the company sold around 30% of its U.S. onshore gas volumes on the spot market during January’s cold snap, saying sales into the New York region fetched “more than $100 per MMBtu” while marginal production cost was about $1 per mmBtu. 5
Gas-linked U.S. stocks and funds were mixed in early trading. EQT was little changed, Antero Resources edged higher and Range Resources added about 1%, while LNG exporter Cheniere Energy slipped about 1%; leveraged gas ETF BOIL rose about 4% and inverse fund KOLD fell about 4%.
The market is still trying to decide whether late-winter demand will keep chewing through storage or fade fast as temperatures normalize. One fresh forecast run can swing that view.
A smaller-than-expected withdrawal would hint that supply is recovering and demand is easing, and could drag futures back toward recent lows. A bigger pull would revive the storage-tightening story and force traders to reprice the rest of winter.
But this is still a weather trade. Another warm turn in mid-February forecasts — the trigger for Monday’s wipeout — would again pressure prices and can hit gas-linked funds hardest, simply because they amplify short-term moves.
Next up is the EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report on Thursday, Feb. 5 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time, along with fresh weather updates into the weekend. 6
