December 16, 2025 — U.S. natural gas futures are trading around $3.93–$3.94 per MMBtu today, extending a sharp pullback from early-December highs as traders reassess winter heating demand amid a warmer late-December outlook. On Investing.com’s benchmark futures page, the “current price” is listed near $3.93 (with a prior close of $4.012) and the day’s range has been roughly $3.878–$4.045. [1]
The move caps a fast shift in sentiment: after a cold-driven surge pushed the market to a 52-week high of $5.496, prices have retreated materially as forecasts turned less supportive. [2]
Below is a full, news-style breakdown of natural gas price action today, plus the most relevant forecasts and market analysis circulating on 16.12.2025 across the U.S., Europe, and LNG benchmarks.
Natural gas price today: the key levels traders are watching
U.S. (NYMEX / Henry Hub-linked futures)
- Natural Gas futures: about $3.936 for Dec. 16, 2025 in Investing.com’s daily historical table (Open $4.038, High $4.045, Low $3.878). [3]
- That’s a ~1.9% drop versus the Dec. 15 close of $4.012, reinforcing the downside momentum that’s defined the last two weeks. [4]
Reuters market coverage also underscores how quickly the rally unwound: front-month U.S. gas futures fell roughly 3% in the latest referenced session, pressured by milder weather forecasts, near-record output, ample storage, and softer global gas prices. [5]
Europe (TTF / UK NBP)
European gas benchmarks remain subdued, helping keep global LNG-linked pricing pressure lower:
- Dutch TTF front-month: about €26.78/MWh (roughly $9.22/mmBtu) in Tuesday morning trade (09:30 GMT). [6]
- UK day-ahead: about 70.50 p/therm; UK front-month: about 71.46 p/therm, both slightly lower on the day. [7]
- EU storage: around 69.75% full, below last year’s 78.28%, but still described as “comfortable” amid strong supply. [8]
Asia (JKM LNG benchmark)
Asian LNG pricing has also stayed comparatively soft versus U.S. volatility:
- Reuters’ global benchmark table places JKM around $10.70/mmBtu (near $11). [9]
Why this matters for “natural gas price today”: when European and Asian benchmarks hover near multi-month lows, the global pull can weigh on sentiment across gas markets—especially around LNG economics, arbitrage expectations, and cross-benchmark positioning. [10]
What’s driving natural gas prices on 16.12.2025
Today’s price action is less about one headline and more about a familiar winter trio: weather, supply, and storage—with LNG flows acting as a counterweight.
1) Weather models flipped from “winter premium” to “demand fade”
Reuters reports meteorologists expect mostly warmer-than-normal U.S. weather through late December, which reduces heating demand relative to what traders price in during colder runs. [11]
That shift is pivotal because late December is typically when the market tries to lock in a “holiday cold” risk premium. When forecasts turn mild, that premium can unwind quickly—exactly what futures have been doing since early December.
2) Record-high supply keeps the market from panicking
According to Reuters (citing LSEG), Lower-48 output has been running around 109.7 Bcf/d in December—essentially at record levels—making it easier for the system to absorb demand swings without immediate scarcity pricing. [12]
This is one major reason natural gas can sell off sharply even in winter: the production base is high enough that demand surprises need to be large and sustained to tighten balances fast.
3) Storage remains “ample,” so dips don’t immediately trigger fear bids
Reuters notes U.S. storage sits roughly around 1% above normal in the latest context, which helps explain why the market has been willing to sell rallies after warm forecast updates. [13]
4) LNG export feedgas is strong—but not strong enough to overpower warm weather
A bullish offset is LNG: Reuters puts feedgas to major U.S. LNG plants around 18.6 Bcf/d so far this month, up from a record monthly pace in November. [14]
That said, in today’s setup LNG is acting more like a floor stabilizer than a rally engine—because the dominant marginal driver is still U.S. heating demand.
5) Technical and positioning factors are back in focus
Reuters also flags the front month moving into technically oversold territory during the recent slide. [15]
Oversold conditions don’t guarantee a reversal—but they can increase sensitivity to any sudden forecast shift colder, pipeline disruption, or surprise storage draw.
Europe’s gas market today: stable supply caps prices despite cooler weather and low wind
Europe is seeing a classic winter balancing act: cooler weather nudges heating demand up, and lower wind speedsincrease gas-fired power burn—but ample imports and Norwegian supply are preventing a sustained rally.
Reuters’ European gas update highlights:
- supply remains “ample,” supported by LNG and increased Norwegian deliveries
- demand ramps can be met by imports and storage withdrawals
- and headlines around potential Russia–Ukraine peace talks could add downside pressure to sentiment. [16]
This matters globally because Europe’s TTF has become a key “pressure valve” for LNG. When Europe stays well supplied and prices remain rangebound, it can influence LNG flows and, indirectly, how traders think about U.S. balances and export pull. [17]
Forecasts and outlook: where natural gas prices could go next
The EIA’s winter outlook: higher winter average, but production growth limits 2026 upside
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9, 2025), points to early-December cold as a key reason it lifted winter expectations:
- EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average around $4.30/MMBtu this winter heating season (Nov–Mar), about 22% higher than last winter. [18]
- EIA assumed December would have more heating degree days than average, lifting residential/commercial gas consumption estimates and tightening storage somewhat. [19]
- It projects December withdrawals of ~580 Bcf and end-of-winter stocks around 2,000 Bcf (still above the five-year average). [20]
- For the full year, EIA lists Henry Hub averaging $3.56 in 2025 and $4.01 in 2026, with U.S. dry gas productionrising to roughly 109.11 Bcf/d in 2026. [21]
In reporting published 16/12/2025, EIA’s quarterly view is also highlighted: a forecast of $3.87/MMBtu for Q4 and $4.35/MMBtu for Q1, reflecting the early-winter cold snap’s impact on heating demand assumptions. [22]
How to reconcile today’s sub-$4 futures with EIA’s ~$4.30 winter average: futures markets are reacting to late-December warmth and the belief that strong production plus LNG flows can keep balances manageable unless cold returns decisively. EIA’s seasonal average, meanwhile, embeds the early-winter cold impact and assumes meaningful winter withdrawals even if late December is mild. [23]
Near-term risk scenarios traders are pricing right now
- Bear case (mild holds): If forecasts keep showing warmer-than-normal conditions into late December and early January, the market may continue probing support in the high-$3s, especially with production steady and storage not tight. [24]
- Bull case (cold reloads): Any sustained colder model shift can quickly rebuild the “winter premium,” particularly if it coincides with stronger LNG feedgas, larger storage withdrawals, or regional constraints. [25]
The next big catalyst: U.S. storage data and holiday schedule quirks
Natural gas traders typically treat the weekly EIA storage release as the most important recurring fundamental catalyst in winter.
- EIA’s schedule states the standard release is 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursdays, with exceptions around holidays. [26]
- The holiday schedule shows Dec. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2025 are Wednesday releases (12:00 p.m. ET), which can affect liquidity and positioning as markets approach year-end. [27]
On the market side, Reuters’ latest framework already points to traders watching the next data points closely, with storage expectations and the pace of winter demand remaining central to whether this selloff extends or stabilizes. [28]
Bottom line: Natural gas price today is being set by the weather—again
On Dec. 16, 2025, the natural gas price today is best explained as a recalibration: a market that sprinted above $5 during early-December cold is now trading near $3.94 as late-December weather forecasts soften, while record production, adequate storage, and subdued global benchmarks limit urgency on the buy side. [29]
If you’re tracking what comes next, focus on three things:
- U.S. temperature model trends, 2) LNG feedgas flows, and 3) weekly storage withdrawals—because in winter, those three variables tend to overpower everything else.
Informational only; not financial or investment advice.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. www.eia.gov, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.eia.gov, 21. www.eia.gov, 22. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 23. www.eia.gov, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.eia.gov, 26. ir.eia.gov, 27. ir.eia.gov, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. www.investing.com
