LONDON, March 24, 2026, 18:08 GMT
European natural gas prices slipped Tuesday, though they’re still sharply higher than a month back. Dutch TTF hovered between 53 and 54 euros per megawatt hour, easing off after briefly clearing 60 euros on Monday. QatarEnergy, meanwhile, declared force majeure on certain long-term LNG deals, citing disruptions it says are out of its hands.
This is coming into sharp focus with European storage sitting at 28.5%. Shell’s Wael Sawan warned the region could face shortages “by next month.” Data out Tuesday highlighted a key difference: gas, compared to oil, offers fewer rerouting possibilities and limited storage, raising the risk that supply disruptions hit harder. Energie Dashboard
The divergence with the United States is stark. On Tuesday, Henry Hub futures traded at about $2.92 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Meanwhile, recent data put European gas benchmarks 85% higher and Asian LNG prices soaring 143% since February 28—both leaps outpacing Brent crude, which has climbed 55%.
QatarEnergy listed buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China among those with contracts now disrupted. The company warned earlier this month that Iranian strikes had sidelined 17% of its LNG export capacity—potentially for three to five years—a blow that shifts the picture from a shipping disruption to a drawn-out supply crunch.
Executives aren’t mincing words. Sawan noted the pain spreading west, shifting out of South and Southeast Asia and heading for Europe. Cheniere’s CEO Jack Fusco pointed to the crisis as proof of why “diversity in energy supplies” matters. CFO Zach Davis, speaking to reporters, said the U.S.’s top LNG exporter is already operating beyond its listed capacity—no significant output increase possible until later this year. Reuters
Suppliers are reacting in different ways. Venture Global chief Mike Sabel said the firm has “adequate short, medium and long-term supplies,” adding that 31% of production this year isn’t locked into long-term contracts. That flexibility lets it offer short-term cargoes as needed amid the disruption. Meanwhile, Australia’s Santos went the other direction, shutting its Darwin LNG plant for scheduled maintenance and cutting off more spot supply—shares slid 2.6%. Reuters
Signs of strain are clear in the data. March saw euro zone private-sector growth grind to a near halt, with S&P Global’s Chris Williamson describing the latest survey as “ringing stagflation alarm bells”—a nod to the mix of sluggish growth and rising prices. Dutch central banker Olaf Sleijpen flagged another risk: this shock could ripple faster than it did back in 2022, since both households and companies are quicker to react to energy inflation now. Reuters
Still, prices aren’t locked on a single track. Rerouted shipments and a wider LNG supply bump in 2026 could cool things off. Glencore’s Maxim Kolupaev maintains that, for now, existing LNG flows can cover demand—as long as they’re redirected. And back in January, the International Energy Agency pegged this year’s global LNG output to jump over 7%, mostly thanks to the U.S. That’s the supply picture. But disruption isn’t off the table: previous reporting indicated that just a month of turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz could drive European gas well past 60 euros per megawatt hour, with the potential to spike even higher in a severe crunch.
So, a brief dip offers buyers scant reassurance. On Monday, Cedric Cremers, who heads integrated gas at Shell, warned that such geopolitical jolts “send the wrong signals to customers” when it comes to the reliability and cost of gas in the long run. Reuters
Gas remains noticeably more vulnerable than oil at this stage. The analysis on Tuesday pointed out that worldwide gas logistics face a shortage of storage capacity and lack the swift alternatives available to oil, so even after a brief pullback, buyers still have to contend with persistent supply risks.
