NEW YORK, April 21, 2026, 06:43 EDT
- U.S. natural gas futures hovered close to $2.67 per million British thermal units, following a Monday close at $2.689.
- Storage is still running higher than usual for this point in the year, which keeps a lid on the effect of colder weather showing up in forecasts.
- LNG exports continue to offer some support, though U.S. terminals don’t have much room left to take in additional gas.
U.S. natural gas slipped in early trading Tuesday, trimming a portion of its gains from the past four sessions. Traders digested cooler weather projections but kept an eye on robust storage levels. Front-month futures hovered near $2.67 per million British thermal units—down from $2.689 at the last close. The price, measured in mmBtu, reflects a standard heat content in the gas market.
This shift stands out right now, with the market deep in the spring “shoulder season”—mild temperatures are dampening both heating and cooling demand. Each adjustment to late-April and early-May forecasts is having a bigger impact than usual, yet it hasn’t been sufficient to push prices out of the low-$2 territory.
Natural gas notched a fourth consecutive advance Monday, lifted by chillier outlooks that boosted near-term heating demand expectations. The May Nymex contract tacked on 1.5 cents, or 0.56%, in the session, according to Barchart. Commodity Weather Group flagged colder-than-normal readings for the West between April 25-29, then shifting to the eastern U.S. from April 30 through May 4.
Storage remains the ceiling here. As of April 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported 1,970 billion cubic feet of working gas in storage, a weekly build of 59 Bcf. That’s now 108 Bcf over the five-year average.
The EIA’s April outlook had a soft tone on U.S. prices. Inventories wrapped up the November through March withdrawal period sitting roughly 3% above the five-year average, the agency said. Looking ahead, EIA expects injections will come in higher than usual, projecting end-October stocks at 4,015 Bcf—about 6% above the five-year mark.
The export story still favors bulls, though it’s a bit messy. According to the EIA, U.S. LNG plants in March pushed out nearly 18 Bcf a day—basically matching the record from December 2025. That’s pretty much maxed out; LNG, the chilled and liquefied kind, ships by tanker. With plants running hot, the agency noted there’s not much room left to bump up export volumes.
Signals in the cash market aren’t lining up. “Relatively weak physical gas pricing in Texas” and an expected boost in Permian supply are shaping the current landscape, according to EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, as cited by Natural Gas Intelligence. On Monday, NGI noted, the May Nymex contract closed at $2.689—the fourth consecutive session in the green. naturalgasintel.com
Signals are mixed across peer markets. Brent crude edged lower Tuesday, with traders weighing prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations. Over in Europe, gas stayed jumpy, caught between Hormuz shipping threats and LNG tanker shifts—highlighting that U.S. Henry Hub prices can stay walled off from global jitters when export terminals are maxed out.
Weather remains the wild card for bears. If temperatures plunge into early May, or if heat ramps up demand from the power sector sooner than expected, shorts might get squeezed and prices could snap back toward Monday’s highs. On the flip side, if forecasts stay mild, oil-driven gas production holds up, and storage swells again, the front-month contract stays under the gun.
Natural gas holds up, showing support but little sign of panic. LNG demand’s there, sure, but it’s storage numbers driving the narrative.
