NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 12:23 ET — Market closed
- U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday down 1.84% at $3.618 per mmBtu, pressured by warmer mid-January forecasts.
- The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 1.6% at the close, while gas producers were mixed.
- Traders are watching updated weather models and the next U.S. storage report on Jan. 8.
U.S. natural gas futures closed out the week lower on Friday, with the benchmark contract at $3.618 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), a standard energy unit. Natural-gas-linked stocks and ETFs finished mixed heading into the weekend.
The retreat matters now because traders are repricing winter heating demand after forecasts tilted warmer through mid-January, just as storage withdrawals have been undershooting expectations. That combination can quickly loosen the supply-demand balance that drove late-2025 volatility.
It also lands as U.S. production and export flows remain elevated, keeping the market sensitive to short-term weather headlines even as longer-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand builds. LNG is natural gas super-chilled into a liquid so it can be shipped overseas.
Meteorologists forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 through Jan. 16, Reuters reported. Heating degree days (HDD)—a gauge of how much energy is needed to heat buildings—were seen falling to 369 by Friday from 413 midweek.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, pointed to “talk of a potential glut” developing in the international LNG market as another weight on sentiment. He said the market was looking for clearer direction from weather. Baird Maritime / Work Boat World
On supply, financial firm LSEG estimated average Lower 48 output rose to 110 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December, topping November’s monthly record, Reuters reported. LSEG also pegged average flows to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants at 18.5 bcfd in December, another record.
The latest storage report reinforced the bearish tone. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said firms withdrew 38 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage in the week ended Dec. 26, below the roughly 50-bcf draw analysts expected in a Reuters poll.
That compared with a 112-bcf withdrawal in the same week last year and an average 120-bcf draw over the past five years, EIA data showed. Smaller withdrawals typically imply weaker heating demand and more gas left in the system.
In equities, UNG—which tracks near-dated U.S. natural gas futures—closed down 1.63% at $12.06. Among gas-heavy producers, EQT fell 0.25% to $53.46 and Antero Resources slipped 0.68% to $34.21, while Comstock Resources rose 1.73% to $23.58.
LNG-exposed names held firmer. Cheniere Energy ended up 1.75% at $197.80, while Venture Global rose 3.37% to $7.04.
A separate Reuters review of preliminary LSEG data showed the United States exported 111 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, up about 24% from 2024, as new plants ramped and existing terminals ran hard. The United States is expected to add about 20 million tons per year of LNG export capacity in 2026 as more facilities start up, Reuters reported.
Pipeline stocks also edged higher on Friday, with Energy Transfer up 0.61% and Kinder Morgan up 0.80%. Energy Transfer has been evaluating whether to convert an NGL pipeline in the Permian Basin to carry natural gas, a shift analysts say could ease periodic pricing blowouts at the Waha hub in West Texas.
Before next session, traders will be focused on updated weather model runs and whether warmth persists into the second half of January. Consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said the February contract risked sliding back toward pre-Christmas lows around $3.47 if mild forecasts hold.
The next major catalyst is the weekly EIA natural gas storage report, typically released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursdays and scheduled for Jan. 8. EIA has also said it will implement a new information release system for the weekly natural gas storage report that day, a change that traders will watch closely for timing and access.
Beyond weather and storage, investors are tracking the 2026 price outlook. EIA has forecast Henry Hub spot prices averaging nearly $4.30 per mmBtu across the November-to-March winter season, then easing to about $4 in 2026 as production rises and early-2026 weather turns milder.
For stock investors, earnings season is the next set of scheduled checkpoints. Nasdaq’s earnings calendar lists EQT as estimated to report on Feb. 17, Cheniere on Feb. 19 and Energy Transfer on Feb. 10, while Zacks shows Venture Global’s next report expected on March 5; guidance on 2026 production and LNG contracting will be central.
