NEW YORK, March 13, 2026, 14:30 EDT
U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday, with April delivery shedding 4.0 cents to settle at $3.193 per million British thermal units. That follows Thursday’s finish, the strongest since Feb. 13. The retreat followed news from the Energy Information Administration: marketed U.S. gas production is now projected to reach an all-time high of 118.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.
The U.S. benchmark remains tied to domestic supply and storage dynamics, rather than simply echoing Middle East turmoil. In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected Henry Hub spot prices averaging around $3.80 per mmBtu in 2026—down 13% from last month’s forecast. The agency also noted that U.S. prices should largely remain buffered from any Strait of Hormuz risk, pointing out that LNG export facilities were already running near capacity before fighting broke out.
The latest storage data from the EIA on Thursday backed that up. Working gas totaled 1,848 billion cubic feet as of March 6, a decline of 38 bcf on the week, but only 17 bcf shy of the five-year average — inventories are hovering near normal, enough to keep global price premiums in check for now.
Things aren’t playing out the same overseas. Kpler’s shiptracking data flagged a cargo loaded at Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana flipping its destination from Belgium to Tianjin, and a Freeport LNG shipment ditching the Netherlands for Taiwan. Asia is hustling to pick up supply after losing access to Qatari shipments—the region is now looking to the world’s No. 2 LNG exporter, right behind the United States. Latest deals for March and April deliveries are landing around $20 to $25 per mmBtu for LNG, traders said. “It could still change its route along the way,” ICIS senior analyst Yuanda Wang told Reuters, highlighting just how quickly shipping decisions are being revised. Reuters
Households outside the immediate crisis are starting to feel the shockwaves. In Britain, Cornwall Insight projects the domestic energy price cap could jump by roughly 11% in July, after wholesale gas prices soared over 60% during a two-week span. Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, meanwhile, pushed back on the idea of European gas price caps, warning that artificially low prices would spur demand just as supplies tighten. He pointed out the front-month TTF benchmark has climbed about 60% since the war’s onset.
In the U.S., supply shows few signs of tightening. Baker Hughes reported a second consecutive weekly uptick in oil and gas rigs, bringing the total to 553. Gas rigs reached 133, a level not seen in weeks—suggesting producers remain engaged, despite the sharp jump over winter.
The larger issue: how persistent is the overseas shock? “Risks are tilted more to a growth hit than an inflation jump,” said TS Lombard economist Davide Oneglia. That’s despite European gas prices surging close to 60% this month, with investors ramping up inflation hedges. Reuters
Time remains the key threat to the softer U.S. gas outlook. On Friday, Goldman Sachs flagged that a two-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push its Brent forecast for the fourth quarter up to $93 a barrel, well above the prior $71. The note serves as a pointed reminder: if the energy shock sticks around, the current disconnect between steady U.S. gas prices and far hotter international markets may not last.
