NEW YORK, March 29, 2026, 14:12 EDT.
Natural gas is catching a lift from overseas developments, with Chevron warning it could take weeks for its Wheatstone LNG plant in Australia to ramp back up to full capacity. U.S. May Henry Hub futures, the primary domestic benchmark, settled at $3.035 per million British thermal units on Friday—up 3.65% and still holding close to that $3 mark. CME Group
This comes as Europe heads into April with storage levels well below normal. The European Commission called on governments to act quickly, urging immediate efforts to fill gas caverns—EU stocks sit at just 28% capacity, and the Netherlands is down to 6%. The warning: delay now and risk a scramble for gas later this year. Reuters
LNG still calls the shots. Dutch TTF April gas hovered near $17.63 per mmBtu late Friday—that’s almost six times what Henry Hub fetches. Cheniere, the top U.S. LNG exporter, reported Train 5 at Corpus Christi running at full tilt, with feedgas piped into the terminals hitting close to 2.5 billion cubic feet on Friday. CME Group
Domestic cues point lower. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects most of the continental U.S. to see near- to above-normal temperatures from April 5-11—likely trimming heating demand just as the injection season kicks off, with utilities moving to restock underground inventories post-winter. Climate Prediction Center
Storage alone isn’t putting enough pressure on prices to trigger a breakout. As of March 20, the EIA reported 1,829 billion cubic feet of working gas in storage—54 bcf lower than the week before, yet still 14 bcf over the five-year average. The next numbers land April 2. Energy Information Administration
Foreign supply remains the backbone here. Chevron flagged weeks of repairs ahead for Wheatstone, its 8.9 million-ton-a-year operation. Over at Woodside, the cyclone is still causing trouble at the Karratha gas plant. Reuters
“More than a quarter of global LNG supply” is now caught up in the cyclone and Middle East turmoil, Saul Kavonic at MST Marquee said. Gas markets in Asia and Europe are set for tighter conditions, he warned. Reuters
S&P Global Energy, ICIS, Kpler and Rystad have all slashed their LNG supply outlooks for 2026—some by as much as 35 million tons. “Demand growth will be lower than our pre-war forecast,” said Lucien Mulberg, analyst at S&P Global Energy. Laura Page at Kpler pointed to “higher prices and demand destruction in South Asia” as signs the market is rebalancing. Reuters
U.S. production growth still puts a lid on prices. Gas rigs dropped by four to 127 this week, marking the lowest count since Jan. 30, according to Baker Hughes. Yet the EIA is projecting U.S. gas output to climb to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2026. So, next week’s price action will hinge less on domestic tightness and more on factors like weather and export appetite. Reuters
There’s a clear risk here: if spring temperatures hold up, if Australian outages get fixed quickly, or if the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz lets up, the outlook changes. Barclays isn’t budging from its main forecast, though. The bank still figures traffic through Hormuz goes back to normal by early April, which would pull some of the risk premium out of global gas and oil prices. Reuters
This week, traders are watching a standoff play out between moderate U.S. weather and a more constrained LNG balance abroad. The direction for Henry Hub—whether it clings to the $3 level or slips—could hinge on fresh weather model updates, any shifts in Corpus Christi feedgas deliveries, and the EIA storage numbers due Thursday. Climate Prediction Center
