New York, Feb 1, 2026, 12:33 (EST) — Market closed
U.S. natural gas futures look poised for more volatility this week following a sharp 11% jump in the March Henry Hub contract on NYMEX, which closed Friday at $4.354 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Trading picks up again at 6 p.m. EST Sunday after the weekend break.
The rally highlighted just how fast this market can turn once winter demand jumps. Freeze-offs — outages caused by equipment icing that limit gas production — have returned to the scene.
LNG exports remain a key focus this week. Freeport LNG ramped up to 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Friday, recovering from 1.5 bcfd on Thursday after a compressor glitch knocked out one liquefaction train — the unit that converts gas to LNG — according to LSEG data. The plant’s full capacity stands at about 2.4 bcfd when all trains operate. Meanwhile, two other terminals, Cove Point in Maryland and Elba Island in Georgia, also received LNG cargoes during the cold spell, a rare occurrence.
Storage has emerged as the next pressure point. Analysts expect a 352 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 30, up from the previous 242 bcf draw that left inventories at 2,823 bcf. This latest forecast would place stocks roughly 0.8% below the five-year average. According to LSEG’s weekly model, total U.S. demand is projected at 170.7 bcfd this week, dropping to 156.5 bcfd next week. LNG export feedgas—the gas sent to LNG plants—is estimated at about 17.9 bcfd.
Rystad Energy forecasts production will rebound quickly following storm-related outages but cautions that price reactions can hit suddenly. “When the shock actually comes, immediate price effects from outages roll out really fast,” said Artem Abramov, deputy head of analysis at the consultancy. Midland Reporter-Telegram
Last week’s action in cash gas markets made a clear statement as utilities rushed to secure supply, proving the physical system still catches traders off guard. These price surges often ease, but they quickly refocus attention on storage levels and export movements.
Foreign buyers are eyeing the same U.S. weather charts. In January, the U.S. accounted for roughly 60% of the European Union’s LNG imports, Kpler data cited by Reuters shows.
Weather remains the biggest wildcard. If new forecasts shift warmer across the Midwest and Northeast, heating demand could drop sharply, pushing prices down—especially if production picks up simultaneously.
Attention now shifts to Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report for Feb. 5, as traders seek confirmation that withdrawals remained steep through late January. Analysts will also keep a close eye on flows into Freeport and other LNG terminals once trading resumes.
The first real test arrives before Monday: will Henry Hub stay above $4 when trading kicks off Sunday evening, or will sellers step back in as the next batch of weather models rolls out?
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