NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:28 p.m. ET — Market closed [1]
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with investors weighing a familiar tug-of-war: a globally iconic brand attempting to rebuild momentum while margins and China remain the biggest pressure points. With U.S. exchanges closed for the weekend, Nike shares are effectively in “digest mode” after a holiday-thinned week that amplified stock moves and kept Nike in the headlines thanks to notable insider buying and fresh analyst commentary. [2]
Nike stock last stood around $60.93, with the latest available print reflecting the most recent session data. [3]
Market backdrop: why this weekend matters for NKE holders
Because it’s Saturday, there is no premarket or after-hours session underway. The next opportunity for U.S. cash equity trading is the regular session on Monday, when the NYSE and Nasdaq reopen at 9:30 a.m. ET (and close at 4:00 p.m. ET). [4]
That matters for Nike specifically because year-end trading can be unusually thin—creating sharper, faster price swings on headlines, analyst notes, and positioning. Charles Schwab’s market update heading into the “bridge” period between Christmas and the weekend warned that light volume can exaggerate moves and that the market may need to “prove itself” once normal participation returns. [5]
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours
1) UBS “don’t sprint” message: brand improving, but patience required
A widely circulated weekend note highlighted UBS analyst Jay Sole reiterating a Neutral rating and keeping a $62 price target, citing an UBS Evidence Lab global sportswear survey showing improving brand perception and better product access as Nike leans back into wholesale—while also cautioning that the turnaround may take longer than investors want. [6]
2) Channel-strategy debate is back in focus: wholesale helps, digital is the question
A separate analysis framed Nike’s current setup as an “imbalance” between wholesale momentum and digital softness, arguing the key challenge is rebuilding a more premium digital experience without sacrificing growth. [7]
3) Holiday week “signal” trade: insider buying remains the dominant storyline
Even as the broader market shifted into low-catalyst holiday trading, Nike continued to draw attention because the insider buying narrative is unusually easy for investors to understand: directors buying in size is often interpreted as a confidence signal—especially when the stock is down sharply from prior levels. Schwab’s recap of the holiday-shortened week explicitly called out Nike’s move on the insider-buy headlines. [8]
The insider buying: what the filings actually show
The centerpiece is Apple CEO Tim Cook—also a Nike director—who disclosed a purchase of 50,000 shares of Nike Class B common stock at a $58.97 weighted average price on Dec. 22, 2025, bringing his directly owned holdings to 105,480 shares, according to the SEC Form 4. [9]
The filing also notes the purchase price was a weighted average across multiple executions (within a narrow range) and includes Nike’s policy language around when officers/directors are permitted to transact after earnings. [10]
Another Nike director, Robert Holmes Swan, reported buying 8,691 shares at $57.54 on Dec. 22, 2025, according to a Form 4 repost that includes the trade table and ownership totals following the transaction. [11]
Reuters coverage of the insider-buy story described Cook’s purchase as a notable vote of confidence in CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround effort and cited Baird analyst Jonathan Komp viewing the move positively. [12]
Business Insider, meanwhile, underscored the “signal” interpretation and quoted Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel saying that when someone buys with personal wealth, “you’re making a point.” [13]
Fundamentals: the quarter that set the tone for the stock
Nike’s most recent earnings cycle is still the anchor for most analyst models—and for most of the skepticism around the stock.
Reuters reported that Nike’s fiscal second-quarter results topped revenue expectations, with revenue of $12.43 billion versus $12.22 billion expected (LSEG), and adjusted EPS of 53 cents beating estimates. [14]
But the debate quickly shifted from “did they beat?” to “how expensive is the turnaround?” Reuters reported:
- Gross margin fell about 300 basis points in the quarter ended Nov. 30. [15]
- Nike guided for additional margin pressure in the current quarter, with margins expected to fall 175–225 basis points. [16]
- CEO Elliott Hill and CFO Matthew Friend also pointed to tariffs as a major headwind, with Reuters reporting Nike’s expectation that tariffs would cost the company $1.5 billion for the year. [17]
That margin backdrop is why “good” top-line prints haven’t been enough on their own: investors are looking for evidence the company can stabilize profitability while it resets product, channel strategy, and China execution.
China: still the swing factor for sentiment
A separate Reuters analysis published earlier in the earnings aftermath captured why China continues to dominate the bull/bear debate:
- Nike posted its sixth consecutive quarterly decline in China sales, Reuters reported, with footwear sales down 21% in China (China representing roughly 15% of Nike’s annual revenue, per Reuters). [18]
- CEO Elliott Hill said on the call: “It’s clear we need to reset our approach to the China marketplace,” Reuters quoted. [19]
- Reuters also quoted Bokeh Capital Partners CIO Kim Forrest warning of brand/style dynamics and “backlash against Western brands,” while Morningstar analyst David Swartz argued China results were “partly by design” as Nike cleared obsolete inventory. [20]
For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: any sign of stabilization in China (less promotional activity, improved full-price sell-through, better product resonance) tends to matter disproportionately to Nike’s multiple—because it changes the “duration” of the turnaround.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is pricing in
Even after a volatile December, consensus targets continue to imply upside—though targets and ratings vary depending on the dataset.
- MarketBeat’s compilation shows an average 12‑month price target of $75.84 (highest $115, lowest $35) across 38 analysts, implying upside from current levels. [21]
- StockAnalysis lists an average target around $78.65 (range shown as $62–$115) based on its tracked analyst set and keeps Nike in a broadly “Buy”-leaning consensus bucket. [22]
- TipRanks, in the UBS/Jay Sole coverage, also cited a “Moderate Buy” consensus and referenced an average target around $80. [23]
On the more cautious end, UBS’s Jay Sole staying at Neutral / $62 encapsulates the central risk: Nike may be improving “under the hood,” but translating that into financial statements—especially margins—could take longer than the market wants. [24]
Bank of America analysts (quoted by Investopedia in coverage of the insider-buy catalyst) wrote they saw consensus estimates “bottoming” and pointed to catalysts tied to healthier growth and innovation progress, though that view is not universal across the Street. [25]
What Nike investors should watch before the next session
With markets closed and Monday’s open ahead, the highest-impact “watch list” items for Nike stock are clear:
- Any incremental analyst actions or survey reads
- UBS’s survey-driven note is the freshest example of how sentiment can shift on brand-perception data even when there’s no new earnings report. [26]
- Holiday liquidity conditions
- Thin trading can magnify moves on headlines, especially for heavily owned mega-brands like Nike. [27]
- Tariffs and margin commentary
- Nike has flagged tariffs as a “significant headwind,” and investors are watching for any change in assumed cost impact and the pace of margin recovery. [28]
- China signals
- China remains the key regional wildcard in the turnaround narrative, and even small data points can move expectations. [29]
- Channel mix execution: wholesale vs. digital
- The Street is increasingly focused on whether Nike can keep wholesale momentum while rebuilding a premium digital experience—without leaning back into heavy promotions. [30]
Trading calendar: what to know heading into year-end
Regular NYSE core trading hours run from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and Nasdaq follows the same core schedule Monday through Friday. [31]
Looking ahead to the next holiday:
- Stocks trade a full day on New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31), while bond trading ends at 2:00 p.m. ET that day, according to Investopedia’s holiday schedule coverage. [32]
- Both stock and bond markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. [33]
For Nike shareholders, the practical implication is that the remaining trading sessions of 2025 may continue to feature headline-driven swings—and Monday’s open is less about “new numbers” and more about how investors choose to price the turnaround narrative after insider buys and the latest survey-based reads. [34]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.schwab.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.nyse.com, 5. www.schwab.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.schwab.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.stocktitan.net, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.businessinsider.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.schwab.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.nyse.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. www.schwab.com
