NIO Shares Climb, CXMT Registers Paper Profit While Delivery Expectations Climb

NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 11:08 a.m. EDT (U.S. markets open)

NIO Inc. NYSE:NIO American depositary receipts climbed roughly 3.6% to $4.85 during late-morning trade.
The company’s holding in CXMT Corp. SHA:688825 reflected a paper profit estimated at RMB808 million.
NIO’s growth objective points to second-half monthly deliveries ranging from 44,200 to 49,700 units.

NIO shares were up roughly 3.6% at $4.85 as of 10:53 a.m. EDT. The ADRs were set for a third consecutive session of gains.

The action came amid similar gains. XPeng Inc. NYSE:XPEV advanced 3.2%, and Li Auto Inc. NASDAQ:LI climbed 4.3%.

NIO’s latest move was its investment in CXMT. Disclosures indicated that the stock is subject to an 18-month lockup period.

CXMT finished Wednesday at 52.95 yuan, marking a 12.7% gain. NIO was allotted approximately 18.24 million shares at a price of 8.66 yuan per share.

An initial estimate puts the stake at around RMB966 million, with an unrealized gain of about RMB808 million.

This is around 2.4 times NIO’s net loss in the first quarter. However, the shares will stay locked for 18 months.

NIO faces a more significant challenge with its main operations. The company handed over 191,123 vehicles in the first half.

Using Chief Executive William Li’s projection of 40%-50% annual growth, 2025 volume is estimated at 456,439 to 489,042 deliveries. This constitutes an analytical estimate and does not represent official delivery guidance.

2026 delivery scenario	Annual units	Monthly H2 need	Change from June
40% increase	456,439	44,219	+8.9%
45% midpoint	472,741	46,936	+15.6%
50% increase	489,042	49,653	+22.3%

The lowest scenario calls for a monthly volume that is 8.9% higher than June. Achieving the midpoint would mean producing around 46,936 vehicles per month.

The high scenario calls for 49,653 units delivered each month, representing a 22.3% increase over June’s figure of 40,597.

NIO maintained solid momentum into July, as deliveries in the first half increased by 67.4% compared to the same period last year.

Second-quarter deliveries totaled 107,658, falling short of NIO’s guidance for May, which was set between 110,000 and 115,000.

In June, NIO brand deliveries totaled 21,908 vehicles, ONVO reported 11,743 units, and FIREFLY delivered 6,946.

Profitability saw a significant boost. Vehicle margin for the first quarter climbed to 18.8%, up from 10.2% in the same period last year. Chief Financial Officer Stanley Yu Qu stated that NIO “maintained positive non-GAAP operating profit” during the quarter. NIO Inc.

CXMT’s worth introduces further risk factors. Morningstar Inc. NASDAQ:MORN analyst Jing Jie Yu linked demand to “the current memory supercycle.” He also described the initial rally as excessive. Reuters

Risks are still apparent. Retail sales of new-energy vehicles in China declined by 2% compared to a year earlier during July 1-26. Total passenger car sales decreased by 18%.

The CXMT gain gives NIO investors an extra option, rather than providing evidence of business performance. Sustained revaluation requires monthly deliveries approaching 47,000, with stable margins. The upcoming delivery report will show if progress continues.

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Further analysis

Editorial insight

What is driving NIO shares higher today?

NIO shares were last seen at about $4.85 by 10:53 a.m. Eastern, showing a gain of around 3.5%. The session’s trading range spanned $4.79 to $4.94. XPeng advanced 3.1%, Li Auto added 4.2%, and KWEB rose approximately 1.4%. The QQQ slipped about 1.1% over the same period. NIO’s newsroom listed no company statement for July 29. NIO Analysts attribute the uptick mainly to sector-driven buying, though this is not certain.

Do NIO’s delivery figures provide enough support for the stock?

NIO reported deliveries of 40,597 vehicles in June, marking a 62.9% rise compared to a year earlier. Of these, 21,908 were NIO-branded, 11,743 were ONVO vehicles, and 6,946 were FIREFLY units. Deliveries for the second quarter totaled 107,658 vehicles, up 49.4% year-over-year but falling short of the company’s guidance floor by 2,342 units. In the first half, deliveries across all three brands reached 191,123 vehicles. NIO Inc. Management’s stated annual delivery target of 40%–50% growth now calls for 44,219–49,653 monthly deliveries in the second half. NIO Inc.

Is NIO now recording profits?

NIO recorded a GAAP net profit of RMB282.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, but swung to a GAAP net loss of RMB332.1 million in the first quarter of 2026. Adjusted net profit remained positive at RMB43.5 million. Gross margin was 19.0%, with vehicle margin rising to 18.8%. NIO Inc. The recovery is clear, but sustainable GAAP profitability has yet to be demonstrated.

Is NIO sufficiently funded to support its growth plans?

As of March 31, cash, restricted cash, investments, and time deposits stood at RMB48.2 billion, approximately $7.0 billion based on the company’s stated exchange rate. The first quarter GAAP operating loss was reported at RMB308.8 million. Adjusted operating profit for the same period came in at RMB66.8 million. NIO Inc. Near-term liquidity appears solid. However, continued losses or increased spending could raise fresh dilution risks.

What can investors anticipate from NIO’s second-quarter earnings report?

Management forecasted revenue in the range of RMB32.78 billion to RMB34.44 billion. Actual deliveries came in 2.1% below the lower end of this range, introducing potential revenue downside unless higher-priced premium models boosted average selling prices. NIO Inc. The ES9 achieved 10,000 deliveries just 30 days after its launch. NIO Inc. Investors are encouraged to monitor vehicle margin, cash flow and guidance for third-quarter deliveries.

Is NIO stock considered inexpensive at its current price?

NIO traded at $4.85, giving the company a market capitalisation of about $10.1 billion. Shares were roughly 11% above their 52-week low of $4.37, and stayed nearly 40% under the 52-week high of $8.02. MarketWatch Latest reported revenue through March was about $14.5 billion, placing the market value at around 0.7 times trailing sales. NIO Inc. With negative cumulative GAAP earnings, there is no meaningful trailing P/E ratio.

What are the main upcoming catalysts for NIO in the short term?

July delivery figures are set to provide the next significant operational test. The five-seat ES8 was introduced on July 9, with deliveries starting July 10. Pricing begins at RMB382,800, or RMB274,800 for customers using Battery-as-a-Service. NIO The model has potential to enhance the sales mix, though demand at launch is still unclear. Second-quarter margins and third-quarter outlook also represent key catalysts. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on NIO to Buy on July 13, with a price target of $7. Barron’s

What are the primary threats facing the NIO outlook?

Retail sales of new energy vehicles in China declined by 2% year on year for July 1–26. Total passenger-vehicle retail sales dropped 18% over the same timeframe. CnEVPost NIO missed the bottom of its second-quarter delivery outlook by 2.1%. NIO Inc. In June, the Pentagon included NIO on its Section 1260H list, a move that may limit Pentagon contracts but does not freeze the company’s assets. NIO contests the classification and says all operations and securities trading continue as usual. Federal Register

What is a realistic outlook for NIO shares going forward?

For the upcoming reporting cycle, shares are likely to trade between $4.40 and $5.50. Robust July deliveries may see the stock reach the $6.00 mark, while a disappointing result could bring the $4.37 yearly low into play. MarketWatch Over twelve months, the expected base range is $5.75 to $7.00, based on margin improvements. The average target tracked by MarketBeat among 14 analysts stands at $6.70, and Goldman’s target is $7.00. MarketBeat These scenarios reflect potential outcomes, not certainties.

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Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation. Follow Marcin Frąckiewicz on Google News, Facebook. or Linkedin.