NEW YORK, December 28, 2025, 23:04 ET — Market closed
- NIO ended Friday up about 4% at $5.10, alongside gains in U.S.-listed China EV peers.
- A report said NIO is leaning more on CATL for batteries, scaling back some alternative suppliers for certain packs.
- China’s passenger car association chief warned battery demand could slump in early 2026 as tax incentives fade.
NIO Inc shares ended Friday higher and are set to face fresh scrutiny into Monday after a report said the Chinese electric-vehicle maker is leaning more heavily on battery giant CATL for supply, as investors digest warnings of softer demand early next year.
The supplier mix matters because batteries are the single biggest cost component in an EV and can also become a bottleneck if production or payments tighten. The backdrop is turning more sensitive into year-end as China moves to phase out some purchase incentives, a shift that can pull demand forward and leave a softer patch afterward.
NIO’s U.S.-listed shares closed up about 4% at $5.10 on Friday, according to market data. The stock traded between $4.90 and $5.15 and changed hands in roughly 49 million shares.
U.S.-listed rivals also advanced in the same session, with Xpeng up about 6% and Li Auto up about 4%, while Tesla fell about 2%.
CnEVPost reported on Saturday, citing local outlet 36Kr and industry sources, that NIO has halted battery supply cooperation with BYD’s FinDreams Battery for its Onvo L60 midsize SUV.
The report also said NIO has increased its reliance on CATL for other packs, including switching certain 100-kWh batteries previously supplied in part by CALB to CATL, and bringing CATL in for Onvo’s 85-kWh long-range battery.
Any broadening of CATL’s role would be closely watched given NIO’s heavy use of “battery swapping” — a system where drivers can exchange a depleted pack for a charged one in minutes — which requires a steady pipeline of standardized batteries to support both vehicle deliveries and swap stations.
Macro signals are complicating the picture. China’s passenger car association secretary-general Cui Dongshu warned on Sunday that demand for lithium batteries will likely slump in early 2026 as domestic EV sales slow and exports cool.
“Demand for new energy batteries will drop drastically from the end of this year,” Cui wrote in a personal social media post. Reuters
Cui said green passenger vehicle sales could fall at least 30% early next year from the fourth quarter as tax incentives for car purchases are phased out.
For NIO, investors have been weighing whether supply-chain stability and battery availability can support deliveries into the new year, especially for newer models under its NIO and Onvo brands. The stock’s sensitivity to China demand signals can be amplified at year-end, when policy changes and incentive deadlines often drive abrupt shifts in order patterns.
NIO’s shares have traded between $3.61 and $8.02 over the past 52 weeks, leaving the stock still roughly a third below its high even after the latest bounce.
Before the next session, traders will watch for any follow-through around the reported battery sourcing shift — including whether there are signs of improved production flexibility or smoother battery supply for NIO and Onvo models.
Investors will also be alert to any fresh China policy signals and demand commentary, after Cui’s warning that early-2026 battery and vehicle demand could cool sharply as purchase incentives roll off.
The company has not announced a date for its next results, and third-party earnings calendars list a late-March window for its next report while flagging that the date is not confirmed.
