NEW YORK, December 29, 2025, 02:35 ET — Market closed
- NIO’s U.S.-listed shares last closed up 3.9% at $5.10 on Friday
- China’s passenger car association official warned battery demand may “drop drastically” in early 2026 as incentives phase out
- Traders are watching U.S. Fed minutes on Tuesday and the next round of China EV delivery updates
Shares of NIO Inc (NIO.N) rose 3.9% in the latest session on Friday to close at $5.10, even as broader U.S. indexes finished little changed in holiday-thinned trade.
The China-based electric-vehicle maker’s U.S.-listed shares — known as American depositary receipts (ADRs), certificates that trade in New York and represent foreign shares — remain highly sensitive to shifts in China demand expectations and policy signals into year-end.
That focus sharpened over the weekend after Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, warned in a personal social media post that “demand for new energy batteries will drop drastically” early next year as purchase incentives are phased out. Reuters
Cui said green passenger vehicle sales could fall at least 30% early in 2026 from fourth-quarter levels, and that commercial EV demand would “definitely” slump after buyers pulled forward purchases to capture subsidies and tax breaks. Reuters
For NIO, the debate is whether year-end momentum can carry into the first quarter, when demand often softens and pricing pressure tends to rise across China’s crowded EV market.
The company’s latest monthly update said it delivered 36,275 vehicles in November, up 76.3% from a year earlier, with 18,393 deliveries under the NIO brand, 11,794 under ONVO and 6,088 under firefly.
In its most recent quarterly report, NIO forecast fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries of 120,000 to 125,000 and revenue of 32.758 billion to 34.039 billion yuan, putting December volume squarely in the spotlight.
Competitive pressure remains a constant. Leapmotor’s CEO Zhu Jiangming said on Monday the company aims to sell more than 4 million vehicles annually within a decade and is targeting 1 million sales in 2026, underscoring how China’s EV field keeps adding scale players with aggressive growth plans.
Macro swings are also in the mix. Global investors have been leaning into expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates next year, with markets turning to minutes from the Fed’s last meeting due Tuesday for fresh clues on the policy path.
NIO’s shares remain well below earlier highs despite recent rebounds. The stock finished Friday about 36% under its 52-week high, according to MarketWatch data.
Technically, the ADR has churned in a tight band in recent sessions, with Friday’s intraday range running from $4.90 to $5.15 and recent closes clustered around the $5 level. Trading volume was about 48 million shares on Friday, roughly in line with its recent average.
Before the next session, traders will watch whether NIO holds above $5 in thin year-end conditions, when smaller flows can drive outsized moves in higher-volatility China ADRs.
The next near-term catalysts are the Fed minutes on Tuesday and the next round of China EV demand signals, including delivery updates that investors use as a high-frequency read on order flow and pricing.
On the chart, a push above Friday’s $5.15 high would mark a clean break from the recent range, while a drop back toward the mid-$4 area would test the floor seen earlier this month.
