NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 08:38 ET — Market closed
- India’s NSE Nifty 50 last closed up 0.7% at a record 26,328.55
- Autos, metals and financials led gains; ITC weighed after a cigarette tax shock
- Focus turns to December-quarter earnings and Feb. 1 budget signals
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 — the National Stock Exchange of India’s index of 50 blue-chip stocks — last closed at an all-time high on Friday, ending up 0.7% at 26,328.55. Offshore Gift Nifty futures were last quoted at 26,521.50 early Saturday.
The record close capped a broad rally in the first week of 2026, with financials, metals and automakers doing most of the heavy lifting. “Whether they hold on to these levels this time will be determined by quarterly earnings and the Union Budget,” said Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities. Reuters
Why it matters now: markets are leaning into a December-quarter earnings rebound just as policy headlines start to hit ahead of India’s budget season. The next few weeks will test whether this move is backed by results, not just optimism.
Metal shares have been one pillar. India imposed a three-year import tariff of 11%–12% on some steel products — a step the government calls a “safeguard duty,” meant to curb a surge of cheaper imports — and that has helped sentiment across the sector. Reuters
Auto stocks have also been in focus after a run of upbeat December sales updates, supporting the view that demand is holding up into the new calendar year. Traders have been using those updates as a proxy for how quickly earnings momentum can recover outside the handful of mega-cap leaders.
Coal India provided a single-stock jolt to the index. The state-run miner said it opened up its e-auctions — online auctions of coal lots — to foreign buyers from Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal, and its shares climbed more than 6% in the session.
ITC has been the notable drag. India’s finance ministry notified an excise duty on cigarettes effective Feb. 1, and analysts at Jefferies called the move a clear negative for volumes, while ICICI Securities estimated the change implies a 22%–28% increase in overall costs for 75–85 mm cigarettes.
That matters beyond one stock because ITC is a heavyweight in the consumer-staples space. When a big index constituent stumbles, it can cap benchmark gains even if the broader tape is green.
Before the next session
With cash trading shut over the weekend, traders will take early cues from offshore Nifty futures and from global risk appetite. A sustained push above the round 26,500 area would keep momentum traders engaged, while dips back toward 26,000 would test whether buyers still step in quickly.
The next catalysts are close and concrete: the opening wave of December-quarter earnings updates and any fresh guidance on demand, margins and pricing. Investors will also keep one eye on budget-related signals, with the Feb. 1 timeline now directly tied to the cigarette excise-duty change.
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