NEW YORK, July 5, 2026, 10:06 EDT
- Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA stock is up around 5% for 2026, lagging the S&P 500, which has gained almost 10%. That’s after Nvidia reported 85% revenue growth last quarter.
- Nvidia last traded at $194.83, putting its market cap around $4.75 trillion.
- There’s another risk in the background for dip buyers: Nvidia has $119 billion in manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments on the books, with $95 billion of that set for the rest of fiscal 2027.
- U.S. stocks stayed closed Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. The markets are set to reopen for normal cash trading on Monday.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is turning into a tough megacap for investors. The numbers keep coming in strong, but the stock price says traders want more proof the rally can continue.
Shares were last at $194.83, down 1.5% from the previous close. Market cap comes in near $4.75 trillion. A recent Motley Fool article distributed by Yahoo noted the stock is up 5% for the year. The S&P 500 rose almost 10% over the same time. It’s been a weak showing for a company after posting record quarterly revenue.
The new bull argument in the linked stories goes beyond Nvidia dominating AI chips. Now it’s about the stock trading too much like a regular big tech growth name. Motley Fool tech analyst Keithen Drury said Nvidia’s at 21.7 times forward earnings and called it “an excellent stock to buy now.” Seeking Alpha’s JR Research gave the forward multiple as just under 20. The Motley Fool
Nvidia numbers back up that idea. For the first quarter ended April 26, revenue jumped 85% from a year ago to $81.6 billion. Data center sales climbed 92% to $75.2 billion. Free cash flow came in at $48.55 billion, about 59.5% of revenue for the quarter. At the stock’s latest price, annualized free cash flow for the first quarter means Nvidia is trading at roughly 24.5 times run-rate free cash flow, using company and market data.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company is seeing what he called “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history” move even faster, as the buildout of AI factories speeds up. NVIDIA Investor Relations
| Nvidia metric | Latest figure | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $194.83 | Shares stalled after strong earnings growth. |
| Market value | About $4.75 trillion | Big market cap holds back easy multiple gains now. |
| Q1 revenue growth | 85% year on year | Growth rate still outpaces the broader market. |
| Q1 free cash flow | $48.55 billion | Free cash flow now a main story for valuation. |
| Q2 revenue guide | $91 billion, plus or minus 2% | Outlook calls for about 11.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, with no China data center numbers baked in. |
Nvidia’s 10-Q lays out some numbers. Manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments were $119 billion as of April 26, with $95 billion of that coming due the rest of fiscal 2027. Three direct customers made up 30%, 18%, and 16% of accounts receivable, together 64%. Revenue from customers with headquarters outside the U.S. dropped to 22% of total revenue, down from 42% a year ago.
| Filing data point | Figure | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing, supply and capacity commitments | $119 billion | Secures long-term production, but adds risk if demand falls. |
| Commitments due in rest of fiscal 2027 | $95 billion | Cash and stock discipline are in focus for near term. |
| Top three direct customers’ share of accounts receivable | 64% combined | Receivables are still highly concentrated among a few buyers. |
| Non-U.S.-headquartered customer revenue | 22% of total, down from 42% | Company has shifted more revenue to U.S.-based customers. |
| China data center Hopper shipments | Zero, versus $4.6 billion a year earlier | Export restrictions are still limiting upside. |
This is why the flat trade for Nvidia in 2026 isn’t only about debating forward P/E. The issue is whether a handful of big buyers along with Nvidia’s supply chain can take on the next ramp. CFO Colette Kress said the company “strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters.” Barron’s
Valuations have started to look blunt. In a Motley Fool piece, Daniel Sparks pointed out Nvidia trades at about 22 times forward earnings while Coca-Cola NYSE:KO is at around 26 times. Coca-Cola just hit a record high, but Nvidia is still about 18% off its 52-week high. “A dominant company growing this fast rarely trades at a discount to a mature consumer staple,” Sparks wrote. The Motley Fool
Nvidia is projecting no data center compute sales in China for the second quarter. Its outlook counts on zero Hopper product shipments to China, down from $4.6 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The company said there were no Data Center Hopper units shipped to China in the quarter.
24/7 Wall St. called the recent slide a buying chance, pointing out the stock dropped 12.46% for the month and finished the last session at $194.83. The site flagged China as the key risk, with zero H20 shipments in the quarter and no data center compute revenue from China in its Q2 outlook.
Nvidia said an unnamed AI research and deployment firm drove a significant amount of revenue last quarter by purchasing cloud services from Nvidia’s clients.
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