NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 5:09 p.m. ET — Market closed (Weekend).
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into the final week of 2025 with shares hovering near $190, as investors weigh a fresh wave of debate over the plumbing behind the AI boom—alongside a notable inference-focused partnership with startup Groq and a still-bullish Wall Street target range.
With U.S. stock exchanges shut on Sunday, the next actionable catalyst for traders is Monday’s regular session (Dec. 29)—and with year-end liquidity often thinner than usual, headlines can matter more than normal.
Where NVIDIA stock stands as markets reopen for the final stretch of 2025
NVDA last closed at about $190.53 (up roughly 1% on the session), putting the stock back in the spotlight as a bellwether for “AI trade” sentiment during the market’s year-end “Santa Claus rally” window. Reuters
The broader market backdrop remains supportive on paper: Reuters noted that the “Santa Claus rally” period runs through Jan. 5, and traders have been looking for an upbeat finish to a strong year for major indexes—especially tech. Reuters+1
But this weekend’s NVDA conversation isn’t just about momentum. It’s about how sustainable the AI spending cycle is—and how much risk sits in the financing structures powering it.
1) “Vendor financing” and SPV scrutiny is back in focus—again
A long-form report from The Guardian on Sunday revived investor unease around the circularity of some AI infrastructure deals, describing arrangements that resemble vendor financing—where a supplier supports customers financially, and that support ultimately helps fund purchases of the supplier’s products.
The Guardian report highlights concerns tied to:
- NVIDIA-linked financing structures (including the use of special-purpose vehicles in some situations),
- concentrated exposure to a handful of very large AI buyers,
- and the “stick the landing” question: whether AI monetization arrives fast enough for the industry’s data-center buildout to pay for itself. The Guardian
The article also quotes James Anderson, a prominent tech investor, expressing discomfort with the term “vendor financing,” and cites Forrester analyst Charlie Dai framing the core investor worry as sustainability rather than legality. The Guardian
NVIDIA, per the same reporting, has pushed back on comparisons to prior blowups—arguing it does not rely on vendor financing to grow revenue and that its reporting is transparent. The Guardian notes NVIDIA also pointed to remarks from CFO Colette Kress earlier in December, in which she said the company was not seeing an AI bubble and emphasized the long runway for data-center modernization.
Why this matters for NVDA investors: even when revenues are strong, the market can re-rate a high-multiple, mega-cap leader if investors decide demand is being pulled forward by financing mechanisms that could unwind if AI budgets slow.
2) Michael Burry’s fresh “AI bubble” bet adds gasoline to the debate
Adding to the weekend’s volatility risk: The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that investor Michael Burry—famous for “The Big Short”—is now betting against AI-linked giants including NVIDIA, using put options and arguing that the market is replaying bubble dynamics. The Wall Street Journal
According to the WSJ summary, Burry’s position is relatively small in premium terms (about $10 million in puts) but could become very large if NVDA were to fall sharply by 2027; the report also says NVIDIA has denied his claims about its practices.
Why this matters: Burry isn’t a consensus signal—but his trades tend to draw attention at exactly the moments the market is already anxious about narrative risk. In thin year-end trading, that can amplify price swings on either side.
3) The Groq deal: NVIDIA leans harder into inference as the competitive battlefield shifts
While the financing debate is the headline-grabber, the more tangible product-and-strategy story remains NVIDIA’s move to deepen its position in inference—the part of AI where trained models respond to user prompts at scale.
In a Dec. 24 statement, Groq said it entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with NVIDIA for Groq’s inference technology. Groq also said its founder Jonathan Ross, President Sunny Madra, and other team members would join NVIDIA, while Groq continues operating independently under CEO Simon Edwards and keeps its GroqCloud service running.
Reuters’ reporting on the arrangement underscores the strategic backdrop: NVIDIA dominates the market for training AI models, but inference is more contested—drawing pressure from rivals like AMD and a growing field of startups. Reuters also noted that Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon flagged antitrust as a key risk area for these “tech-and-talent” style deals, even when structured as a license rather than a full acquisition. Reuters
Market coverage this week has repeatedly described the Groq agreement as a bullish signal that NVIDIA is taking inference competition seriously—while keeping its options open via a non-exclusive structure.
Investor takeaway: If training was the first phase of the AI capex boom, inference is increasingly the phase that determines who captures durable, recurring economics. NVIDIA’s push here is a reminder that the company is not standing still—even with a dominant installed base.
4) NVIDIA’s cloud strategy reset: stepping back from competing with customers
Another thread in recent reporting: NVIDIA appears to be narrowing the scope of its cloud ambitions—an important nuance for long-term margin and ecosystem strategy.
A Tom’s Hardware analysis (published Dec. 26) says NVIDIA reorganized its cloud computing group, including folding the DGX Cloud business into core engineering under SVP Dwight Diercks, citing reporting from The Information. The piece frames the shift as a move away from operating a public cloud service that could be viewed as competing directly with hyperscalers that are also NVIDIA’s largest customers.
Why it matters for NVDA stock: Investors generally award NVIDIA a premium partly because it’s perceived as the picks-and-shovels supplier across the AI ecosystem. Moves that reduce friction with hyperscaler partners can support that premium—especially if markets get more nervous about platform conflict.
Wall Street forecasts: analysts remain bullish, with a wide target band
Despite the weekend’s skepticism headlines, the sell-side remains largely constructive on NVDA.
Benzinga’s compilation of analyst ratings lists a consensus price target around $260.61, with the most recent notes highlighted from BofA Securities (Vivek Arya), Baird (Tristan Gerra), and Bernstein (Stacy Rasgon) around $275, implying roughly mid-40% upside from the latest ~$190 level.
Other widely followed consensus trackers also show substantial upside ranges (with varying methodology and analyst counts), reflecting that—even after a big run—Wall Street expects continued growth tied to data-center buildouts and AI software adoption.
How to read this: The core debate isn’t whether NVIDIA is strategically positioned—it’s whether the market should keep paying a very high premium for that positioning if financing, competition, and regulation raise the probability of a growth slowdown.
What NVIDIA investors should watch before Monday’s open
With the market closed Sunday, here’s what could matter most before the next regular session begins Monday (Dec. 29):
1) Any follow-up headlines on “vendor financing,” SPVs, or AI balance-sheet risk
The Guardian and WSJ stories are the kind of narratives that can linger for days—especially if more investors, analysts, or regulators weigh in. The Guardian+1
2) Antitrust and deal-structure scrutiny around “acqui-hire” style licensing
Reuters explicitly points to rising regulatory attention on major tech firms paying for technology and talent without formal acquisitions; analysts like Rasgon have flagged this as a risk factor even when deals are non-exclusive. Reuters
3) The macro calendar and year-end liquidity (thin trading can exaggerate moves)
MarketWatch’s economic calendar flags Pending Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday—one of the scheduled data points that can move rates and, by extension, high-duration growth stocks.
4) Your near-term NVIDIA catalyst calendar
NVIDIA’s investor relations calendar lists Q4 FY26 financial results scheduled for Feb. 25, 2026. That’s not tomorrow’s catalyst, but it is the next major company-specific date that options markets and long-only managers typically anchor to.
5) Holiday trading schedule into New Year’s
Investopedia notes U.S. stock markets are open for a full trading day on Dec. 31, with markets closed on Jan. 1, 2026 (New Year’s Day). With fewer sessions left in the year, positioning and rebalancing flows can matter.
The setup for NVDA: fundamentals vs. narrative risk
As of this Sunday evening in New York, NVIDIA stock enters the next session in a familiar tug-of-war:
- Bull case: NVIDIA continues to expand beyond training into inference, keeps the developer ecosystem moat, and benefits from an AI infrastructure buildout that remains one of the market’s biggest capex themes.
- Bear case: A renewed focus on the financial scaffolding of AI demand (vendor-financing-like arrangements, leverage in the ecosystem, and concentrated customer exposure) could push investors to demand a higher risk premium—especially if the market starts treating AI as late-cycle rather than early-cycle.
With NVDA still sitting at the center of both narratives, Monday’s open may be less about a single headline and more about whether investors choose to price NVIDIA as an unstoppable platform—or as the market’s most important stress test for the AI boom’s staying power.
