Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) is starting Dec. 18 with a very “energy-stock” storyline: a sharp one-day rebound in the share price, fresh macro tailwinds from oil-market headlines, and investors still trying to handicap a huge strategic pivot—the planned sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway—against the company’s 2026 spending and production plans.
OXY last traded around $40.63, up roughly 4.4% from the previous close, based on the latest available price update early Dec. 18 UTC.
Below is what’s moving Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock right now, what the latest company guidance implies for 2026, and how Wall Street forecasts are lining up as the year wraps.
OXY stock price today: Why Occidental jumped despite a down market
On Wednesday, Dec. 17, OXY rose 4.39% to $40.63, snapping a four-day losing streak even as the broader market fell (S&P 500 down 1.16%, Dow down 0.47%). Trading volume was also elevated versus its 50-day average—one sign that the move wasn’t just a sleepy drift. [1]
The immediate catalyst wasn’t an Oxy-specific press release. It was oil—and geopolitics.
Reuters reported that energy stocks climbed alongside crude prices after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a “blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela; Reuters explicitly noted that Occidental and ConocoPhillips gained over 4% on the day. [2]
At the commodity level, Reuters also flagged crude prices rising amid reports of potential new U.S. sanctions tied to Russia’s energy sector and uncertainty around how a Venezuela-focused blockade would be enforced—while still noting that oversupply and softer demand could limit the broader impact. [3]
Translation for OXY investors: when crude jolts higher, cash-flow expectations can reprice fast—especially for companies like Occidental that the market often treats as a levered bet on oil prices and capital discipline.
The biggest company-specific catalyst: The OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway
The most consequential “company story” for Occidental right now remains the planned divestiture of its chemical business.
Occidental and Berkshire Hathaway announced a definitive agreement for Berkshire to acquire OxyChem for $9.7 billion in cash, with the transaction expected to close in Q4 2025 (subject to approvals and customary conditions). Occidental said it expects to use $6.5 billion of proceeds to reduce debt and pursue a goal of getting principal debt below $15 billion, a target it set after announcing the CrownRock acquisition. [4]
That’s not just portfolio housekeeping. It’s a balance-sheet and equity-story rewrite:
- Less diversification (chemicals cash flows exit the building),
- More pure-play upstream exposure, and
- More room for debt reduction and capital returns—if oil cooperates.
In an October interview with Reuters, CEO Vicki Hollub argued Occidental should be able to replace the cash flow lost from OxyChem in about 2.5 years, and highlighted how interest savings from paying down debt could offset the earnings power that the chemicals unit would have delivered. [5]
And in the company’s Q3 earnings-call transcript (Refinitiv StreetEvents), CFO Sunil Mathew said Oxy expects the deal to meaningfully improve credit metrics and lower annual interest expense by more than $350 million, while also noting that OxyChem would be classified as discontinued operations beginning in Q4. [6]
What investors are really debating
This is the tug-of-war:
- The bull case: deleveraging + interest savings + a cleaner upstream focus can lift valuation (especially if oil prices stabilize or rise).
- The bear case: Oxy is giving up a business that can smooth earnings through commodity cycles—and becomes more exposed to oil’s mood swings.
Either way, if you care about OXY stock into 2026, the OxyChem closing and the pace of debt paydown are not side quests—they’re main plot.
Q3 2025 results: cash flow, production, and debt reduction in focus
Occidental’s most recent quarterly snapshot (Q3 2025) shows why the market is so obsessed with debt and free cash flow.
In its Q3 2025 results press release, Occidental reported:
- $2.8 billion operating cash flow (and $3.2 billion before working capital),
- $1.5 billion free cash flow before working capital,
- $1.8 billion capital spending,
- average production of 1,465 Mboed (above the high end of guidance), and
- $1.3 billion of debt repaid in the quarter, bringing principal debt balance to $20.8 billion. [7]
That debt number matters because the “Occidental trade” in late 2025 is still heavily about deleveraging—both for risk reduction and for what it unlocks in capital returns (dividends + buybacks) across cycles.
2026 outlook: lower capex, $55–$60 WTI planning, and flexibility below $50
Occidental’s next big narrative lever is not what it did last quarter—it’s how it plans to operate in a lower-price world.
Reuters reported in November that Occidental forecast flat to slightly higher oil production in 2026 (up to ~2%) and planned to reduce 2026 capex to $6.3–$6.7 billion, down from an expected $7.1–$7.3 billion in 2025. Reuters also noted the company’s plan to allocate up to $400 million to U.S. onshore activity while increasing spending in the Gulf of Mexico and Oman and scaling back low-carbon investment. [8]
The company’s Q3 earnings-call transcript adds an important detail: management described targeting a $55 to $60 WTI plan for 2026, explicitly emphasizing flexibility if prices weaken. [9]
Even more telling, the same transcript describes working scenarios below $50 WTI to adjust activity and protect cash flows. [10]
Why that $55–$60 WTI framing matters
It signals Occidental is trying to convince investors it can do three things at once:
- Hold production reasonably steady (or modestly up),
- Spend less, and
- Keep generating enough free cash flow to pay down debt and return capital—
…even if oil prices aren’t doing them any favors.
That’s the sort of discipline equity markets tend to reward, but only if execution matches the script.
Dividend and insider signal: what shareholders just learned
Occidental’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share, payable Jan. 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of Dec. 10, 2025, the company announced. [11]
Meanwhile, an insider transaction landed on the tape: director William R. Klesse filed a Form 4 showing he acquired 5,000 shares on Dec. 16, 2025 at $38.98 per share. [12]
Insider buys don’t guarantee anything (executives can be wrong like the rest of us), but in a year when OXY has traded well below its earlier highs, the optics are straightforward: a board member was willing to buy in the open market near recent lows.
Carbon capture and “Stratos”: a long-term optionality story (with near-term capex roll-off)
Occidental’s low-carbon business often gets filed under “future narrative,” but two late-2025 datapoints make it more tangible:
- On the Q3 earnings call, management indicated low-carbon venture capex for next year could be around $100 million as capital “rolls off” with the completion of STRATOS. [13]
- 1PointFive (Occidental’s carbon management platform) describes Stratos—its first Direct Air Capture facility in Ector County, Texas—as under construction and designed to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year once commercially operational. [14]
For OXY stock, the practical near-term implication isn’t “DAC will transform earnings tomorrow.” It’s more mundane and more investable: low-carbon spending may step down, freeing capital for other priorities (debt, buybacks, core oil-and-gas projects) while still keeping the carbon-management option alive.
OXY stock forecast: analyst consensus, price targets, and the recent wave of caution
Forecasts for OXY have a “cautiously optimistic, but not enthusiastic” vibe right now.
StockAnalysis, which aggregates analyst estimates, shows a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average 12-month price target of $49.78 (about 22.5% above the latest ~$40.6 price), with targets ranging from $38 to $64. [15]
At the same time, individual firms have been trimming expectations:
- Fintel reported that J.P. Morgan downgraded OXY from Neutral to Underweight with a $44 price target (dated Dec. 8, 2025). [16]
- MarketBeat reported UBS cut its price target from $45 to $43 while maintaining a Neutral rating (dated Dec. 9, 2025). [17]
How to interpret this split
The consensus target says: “There’s upside if oil stabilizes and the balance sheet keeps improving.”
The downgrades say: “Yes, but the path is messy—oil is volatile, and the equity still carries macro risk.”
Both can be true. Energy stocks are weird like that.
What to watch next: 5 catalysts that can move Occidental (OXY) stock
Here are the near-term and medium-term items most likely to drive OXY’s next re-rating—up or down:
- Oil prices and enforcement reality of the Venezuela blockade / Russia-sanctions headlines (macro can overwhelm everything). [18]
- Completion of the OxyChem sale (and the market’s read on how fast proceeds translate into lower debt and interest expense). [19]
- 2026 capex and production follow-through, especially under the company’s $55–$60 WTI planning framework (and what happens if WTI dips below $50). [20]
- Capital returns: steady dividend execution plus the size/timing of buybacks relative to debt reduction. [21]
- Operational performance in core basins (Permian, Gulf of Mexico) that supports cash flow without chasing growth for growth’s sake. [22]
Bottom line on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock on Dec. 18, 2025
Occidental’s bounce to the low-$40s is a reminder that macro oil shocks still dominate day-to-day trading. [23]
But the more durable 2026 debate is about whether OXY can become a simpler, stronger, more shareholder-friendly company by:
- closing the $9.7B OxyChem sale,
- pushing debt meaningfully lower, and
- executing a leaner 2026 plan designed around $55–$60 WTI (with contingency plans below $50). [24]
If that plan holds, the consensus targets in the high-$40s don’t look crazy. If oil slides and the deleveraging timeline stretches, those same targets can start to look like wishful thinking in a hard hat.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.oxy.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.oxy.com, 7. www.oxy.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.oxy.com, 10. www.oxy.com, 11. www.oxy.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.oxy.com, 14. www.1pointfive.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. fintel.io, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.oxy.com, 20. www.oxy.com, 21. www.oxy.com, 22. www.oxy.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.oxy.com
