Oil Approaches $90 Amid Heightened Hormuz Tensions, U.S. Inventory Data Mixed

NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 09:56 EDT — Oil prices moved close to $90, as concerns over security in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed mixed signals from recent U.S. crude inventory figures.

Brent climbed 6.8% to $89.79, and WTI advanced 6.2% to $84.20.
Public reports gave conflicting signs for the same 3.3 million-barrel crude number.
The government’s EIA inventory benchmark was scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Brent crude climbed 6.8% to $89.79 per barrel as of 9:35 a.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $84.20.

U.S. cash markets started trading as the dateline passed. Oil prices climbed higher, fuelled by new Middle East strikes and ongoing Hormuz shipping constraints.

The initial U.S. inventory reading offered little clarity, with public reports providing conflicting information regarding both crude and distillate stockpiles.

Reuters cited a 3.3 million-barrel draw in crude inventories alongside increasing fuel stocks. According to the Trading Economics feed from TradingView, there was a 3.3 million-barrel build in crude. OilPrice also noted a crude inventory draw and a decrease in distillates.

Below is a comparison of the differing preliminary estimates. Data are in millions of barrels; negative values indicate inventory declines.

Published reading	Crude	Gasoline	Distillates	Combined change
Reuters API report	-3.300	+0.918	+0.355	-2.027
OilPrice article body	-3.296	+0.918	-0.125	-2.503
TradingView/Trading Economics	+3.300	+0.918	-0.125	+4.093
Reuters analyst poll	-1.300	-0.700	+0.200	-1.800

The most optimistic outlook points to a 2.5 million-barrel total draw, while the most pessimistic indicates a 4.1 million-barrel increase.

The range spans 6.6 million barrels, making it too broad to anchor a decisive inventory trade.

Reuters’ tally, when adding refined fuels, shows a total draw just 227,000 barrels above analysts’ expectations.

Geopolitical tensions appear to be the primary factor affecting cleaner prices. U.S. and Saudi militaries have restarted attacks on Iran-supported factions in Iraq. Additionally, Iran declined an Omani initiative addressing the governance of the Strait of Hormuz.

This week, just a handful of commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining concerns over supply even after previous optimism about diplomatic progress.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd SGX:D05 energy research chief Suvro Sarkar anticipates Brent crude will “whipsaw in the $80-$100 per barrel range” in the near term. Reuters

The broader balance continues to be constrained. The EIA projects that worldwide stocks will decrease by 2.2 million barrels per day over the third quarter.

OPEC+ could put planned production hikes on hold for three months starting in October. If Gulf shipments stay limited, this would support the supply premium.

The API characterizes its weekly bulletin as an estimate derived from surveys within the industry. In contrast, the EIA report offers the official government benchmark, but it too is comprised of estimated weekly figures.

According to EIA figures released last week, commercial crude inventories increased by 2 million barrels, bringing total stocks to 411.7 million barrels. Despite the buildup, inventories stayed 6% under their five-year seasonal average.

Risks: The EIA report has the potential to confirm either inventory scenario, which may cause rapid price movement. Any diplomatic breakthrough could eliminate much of the war premium seen on Wednesday. Ongoing disruption at Hormuz would maintain upward risk pressure.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Editorial insight

Which event is the key highlight on the economic calendar for today?

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Chair Kevin Warsh will follow with a press conference starting exactly thirty minutes after the release. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50% to 3.75%. There will be no fresh economic forecasts or dot plot updates at July’s meeting. This places extra significance on the statement text and Warsh’s remarks. Federal Reserve

Is the Fed expected to maintain rates or implement an increase?

Markets lean towards a pause, yet sentiment remains notably uncertain. Latest estimates put the chances of a quarter-point increase at around 30% to 36%. June forecasts indicated just one policymaker anticipated rate cuts before year-end. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% from 4.2%, encouraging a cautious approach. However, persistent energy inflation and resilient jobs data keep the possibility of a hike viable. Reuters

Which economic data set to be published ahead of the Fed might impact markets?

The EIA will release its weekly petroleum report at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. According to a Reuters poll, crude stocks are forecast to decline by 1.3 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute’s data suggested a sharper drop of 3.3 million barrels. The EIA previously reported a two-million-barrel increase to 411.7 million. Oil prices remain highly volatile. Any major surprise could impact both energy stocks and inflation outlooks. EIA

What is the current stance of stocks and bonds ahead of the decision?

At the start of Wednesday’s session, the S&P 500 dropped 0.14% to 7,418.16. The Nasdaq Composite began down 0.05%, opening at 24,863.48. The Dow opened 0.14% lower at 52,674.21. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.62% prior to the announcement. Brent crude was close to $90 per barrel, having climbed almost 7%. Investors are maintaining a cautious stance, rather than indicating outright market panic. Reuters

What is today’s baseline outlook for the main indexes?

My baseline expects rates to stay steady along with a strong message prioritising inflation. Reuters Given that scenario, the S&P 500 is projected to finish in the 7,360-7,480 range. The Nasdaq Composite’s forecast range is 24,550 to 25,100. The Dow is seen likely to end between 52,100 and 52,900. If the press conference turns out more dovish, markets could move towards the higher end of each band. These are scenario ranges, not consensus forecasts.

What are the consequences if the Fed unexpectedly raises rates?

A 25 basis point increase would raise the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. With markets pricing in just a one-in-three chance, equities could see swift repricing. Reuters My bearish scenario projects the S&P 500 at about 7,220–7,330. The Nasdaq may hover between 24,100–24,450, pressured by declines in growth stocks. The Dow is seen dropping to 51,600–52,100, with energy offering some support. These ranges are estimates and subject to change.

What are the key words in the Fed statement?

Investors will watch for comments on inflation, split decisions, and possible moves in September. Policymakers kept rates steady in June with full agreement, but divisions have emerged since. Highlighting stubborn energy inflation could weigh on tech stocks with long durations. If the view on price pressures softens, Treasury yields may drop. No new dot plot is expected today. Federal Reserve

Which data has the potential to undo today’s market movement in the coming session?

Second-quarter GDP, jobless claims, income, spending, and PCE inflation are all due Thursday. Economists expect GDP at 1.8%, down from 2.1% in the previous quarter. Projections for core PCE are 0.2% from month to month and 3.3% year over year. Initial jobless claims are seen hitting 200,000, after registering 187,000. If inflation comes in softer alongside growth near 2%, stocks could gain. However, a higher inflation reading may swiftly reverse any rally seen after the Fed. MarketWatch

Which industries encounter the highest risk from the economic calendar?

Tech stocks show the most sensitivity to interest rate moves, with the ten-year yield hovering around 4.62%. Rising short-term rates could help banks, but the yield curve’s configuration remains a key factor. Brent crude trading near $90 and tighter stockpile forecasts are lending support to energy shares. Sectors like airlines, transports, utilities, and real estate continue to face pronounced downside. Meta and Microsoft will report after today’s close, contributing to increased Nasdaq volatility. Barron’s

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Iwona Majkowska is a financial markets journalist at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, artificial intelligence and technology. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, she previously worked in equity research and financial analysis before focusing on market reporting. Her daily coverage helps investors follow major developments across U.S. and global markets. Follow Iwona Majkowska on Google News.