Dubai, March 14, 2026, 22:22 (GST)
Oil prices stumbled into the weekend after a drone strike forced some loading activities to halt at Fujairah in the UAE. Just hours earlier, Brent crude had ended Friday at $103.14 a barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $98.71. RBC Capital’s Helima Croft said the attack underscored how “no safe harbor” remains, with the fighting now hitting infrastructure outside the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
Here’s why this is key: last year, Fujairah shipped out over 1.7 million barrels per day of oil and fuel products, and it’s located just outside the Strait of Hormuz. If Hormuz isn’t an option, any hiccup at Fujairah tightens the supply squeeze, cutting into one of the only alternative routes near a corridor moving around 20% of the world’s oil and LNG. Reuters
Oil is hovering near $100, marking a roughly 35% surge since the war’s onset. European gas prices? Up almost 60% just this month. According to a European Central Bank study cited by Reuters, a lasting 14% increase in oil and gas would tack on half a point to inflation and shave 0.1% off growth. Economists warn governments don’t have the same firepower for sweeping subsidies that they deployed in 2022. Reuters
The International Energy Agency warned of an unprecedented oil supply shock, projecting an 8 million barrel per day decline in global production for March. Gulf producers have already slashed output by no less than 10 million barrels per day. On March 11, the agency confirmed its member nations would put 400 million barrels from emergency reserves into play. Reuters
Governments are beginning to detail their commitments. Canada plans to back the IEA move with 23.6 million barrels, tapping production boosts that were already on the schedule. Over in Japan, the government is set to release around 80 million barrels, kicking off on March 16. Reuters
Several brokerages are pushing their targets up. Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average above $100 a barrel for March, with April seen around $85. Barclays lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $85, cautioning that prices might jump to $100 if traders start betting that the Strait remains disrupted for as long as four to six weeks. Reuters
JPMorgan now projects crude supply losses nearing 12 million barrels per day by the close of next week, putting Europe in the crosshairs since it relies heavily on Middle Eastern diesel and jet fuel after cutting off Russian imports. Dan Pickering at Pickering Energy Partners flagged the risk from damage to Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure, warning it could permanently remove 2 million barrels a day from the market until repairs restore the strait. Reuters
Relief isn’t off the table, but the outlook is muddled. President Donald Trump claimed “many countries” would send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz—though he didn’t specify which ones. DP World CEO Yuvraj Narayan, for his part, said reopening might roll out “in phases” with naval escorts. Details on those escorts are still unclear. Mines planted by Iran and potential attacks on ports outside the strait could still leave oil markets tight next week. Reuters
