NEW YORK, Feb 5, 2026, 06:48 EST — Premarket
- Brent fell 86 cents, settling at $68.60 a barrel; WTI dropped 82 cents to $64.32
- After a turbulent week, attention turns to Friday’s U.S.-Iran meeting in Muscat
- Data from the EIA revealed a 3.5 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories last week
Oil prices dipped over 1% on Thursday following news that the United States and Iran will meet in Oman, easing short-term concerns about disruptions in Middle East supply. Brent crude futures dropped 86 cents to $68.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 82 cents to $64.32. 1
This shift is significant since crude has carried a geopolitical “risk premium”—extra costs tacked on amid disruption worries—and every headline seems to move the price by the minute. Washington and Tehran are set to meet Friday in Muscat, though they’re still at odds over the agenda. 2
Any escalation instantly threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical passageway from the Gulf. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2024—roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption. 3
Wednesday showed just how quickly the market can shift. Brent closed up 3.16% at $69.46, while WTI jumped 3.05% to $65.14 following reports that talks might fall apart and amid rising security concerns around Oman. “This risk premium is still in the market,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. 4
U.S. inventory figures stirred action earlier this week. Commercial crude supplies dropped 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million for the week ending Jan. 30. Distillate stocks also took a hit, down 5.6 million barrels, while gasoline inventories inched up by 0.7 million barrels, according to the EIA’s weekly report. 5
Volatility is hitting the paper market hard. In January, investors hammered out a record 1.9 million WTI Midland at Houston contracts on ICE — a key Gulf Coast benchmark for pricing U.S. crude exports. Producers and traders leaned on hedges to lock in prices and curb risk. “Iranian geopolitical tensions have influenced risk premiums,” said Jeff Barbuto, senior vice president of global oil markets at ICE. 6
Discounts on Russian barrels in Asia deepened beyond the Middle East as India’s demand faltered and sellers offloaded more crude to China, according to traders and analysts. This week, ESPO Blend prices to China slipped to nearly $9 a barrel below ICE Brent, with Urals trading around $12 under Brent, the report noted. 7
The diplomatic reset remains delicate. John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, cautioned that a single misstep or a collapse in negotiations might push Brent crude back toward $70. 8
Crude-linked regional markets took a hit as Gulf stocks fell Thursday. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index dropped 1.1%, Reuters reported, reflecting investor jitters over the talks and the looming threat of renewed conflict. 9
Coming up next is the latest U.S. inventory update. The EIA’s weekly petroleum report lands on Feb. 11, with the market eyeing if crude draws persist amid winter disruptions and shifting refinery operations. 10
Right now, the market looks primed for more swings. Traders are focused on the Muscat headlines initially, then gearing up for next week’s inventory reports and any changes in Gulf shipping risks.
