NEW YORK, March 12, 2026, 05:06 EDT
- Crude briefly climbed back above $100 after fresh attacks on tankers in Iraqi waters, though Brent later eased to $96.45 and U.S. WTI to $91.30. Reuters
- Exxon, Chevron and Occidental were all higher before the bell, while U.S. stock index futures fell as traders cut back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. Reuters
- A record 400 million-barrel IEA release, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, has not eased concern over supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
U.S. oil stocks were heading for a stronger open on Thursday, with Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum all higher before the bell as crude jumped after fresh attacks on Gulf shipping. Brent briefly moved back above $100 a barrel before easing; by 0733 GMT it was up 4.86% at $96.45, while West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, the U.S. benchmark, was up 4.64% at $91.30. Reuters
The move matters now because oil is no longer just an energy story. U.S. stock index futures were down 0.8% on the Dow and 0.7% on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 3:35 a.m. ET, Goldman pushed its call for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to September, and U.S. gasoline prices crossed $3.50 a gallon this week, the highest since May 2024. Reuters
The first relief measure has not calmed traders. The International Energy Agency agreed a record 400 million-barrel release, with the United States contributing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the emergency U.S. crude stockpile, and Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ, said the move may be only a temporary solution if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted. Reuters
Before the open, Exxon was up 2.3% to $151.58, Chevron 3.0% to $191.79 and Occidental 4.6% to $55.58, even as broader U.S. futures fell. Those gains came against a weaker market. Reuters
Operational risk is rising too. Exxon has evacuated non-essential employees from Middle East operations and scaled back some activity to manage inventories as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow passage between Iran and Oman that handles about a fifth of global oil supply – has been challenged, and CEO Darren Woods said safety was the “first and highest priority.” Reuters
Wednesday’s U.S. government data showed crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell more than expected. Oil shrugged off the crude build as shipping attacks multiplied and the market focused on lost supply. Reuters
Forecasts are moving with the shock. Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised its fourth-quarter 2026 price forecasts to $71 a barrel for Brent and $67 for WTI, and said it now assumes 21 days of Hormuz flows at 10% of normal before a 30-day recovery; in an upside case, Brent could average $110 in March and April. Reuters
“The market remains very concerned” about what is happening in Hormuz, Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB, said, adding the risk is that oil goes higher from here rather than lower. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, put the wider market issue plainly: “As prices rise, consumption is affected, and, ultimately, corporate earnings erode.” Reuters
But the trade can still snap back. On Tuesday, oil fell more than 11% after Trump predicted a quick end to the war, and Andrew Lipow, founder of Lipow Oil Associates, said the drop showed traders reacting to the possibility that the strait could reopen. Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said even if the fighting ends, bringing oil production kept offline back to full rates could take weeks or longer. Reuters
For the open, watch three things: whether crude can hold near $100, whether shipping and refinery disruptions in the Gulf worsen, and whether the reserve release reaches the market fast enough to matter. Later Thursday, investors also get weekly jobless claims and remarks from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, both of which could move rate expectations already strained by higher energy prices. Reuters
