NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 12:54 ET — Market closed
- U.S. strikes in Venezuela and the reported capture of President Nicolas Maduro set up a headline-driven Monday for oil stocks.
- PDVSA facilities were not damaged and operations were normal, but U.S. tanker restrictions have already squeezed exports.
- Energy stocks led Friday’s session, with XLE up 2.10% and major producers finishing higher.
Oil stocks are poised for a volatile start to the week after President Donald Trump said U.S. forces struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro. Annex Wealth Management’s Brian Jacobsen said oil markets might be among the few places to show an immediate reaction when U.S. trading resumes Monday. 1
The immediate question for traders is whether the attack disrupts Venezuelan crude exports once markets reopen. PDVSA’s production and refining were operating normally on Saturday and suffered no damage, although a source said the port of La Guaira near Caracas was badly hit and it is not used for oil exports. A U.S. tanker blockade announced in December and the seizure of two cargoes already cut Venezuela’s exports last month to about half of the 950,000 barrels per day, or bpd, it shipped in November, forcing PDVSA to slow port deliveries, store oil on tankers and work around a December cyberattack, the sources said. 2
Venezuela sits on about 303 billion barrels of crude — roughly 17% of global reserves — yet production averaged about 1.1 million bpd last year, Reuters reported. PDVSA runs joint ventures with foreign partners including Chevron, and MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic said exports could grow over time if sanctions are lifted and investment returns. Still, “forced regime change rarely stabilises oil supply quickly,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. 3
Oil entered the weekend coming off its biggest annual loss since 2020, with investors focused on swelling supplies even as geopolitical risk rose. Brent, the global benchmark, closed Friday down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down 10 cents at $57.32. OPEC+, the group of OPEC producers and allies including Russia, is due to meet Sunday and analysts expected it to keep output increases on hold in the first quarter. 4
Energy equities outpaced the broader market in the last session. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), a widely watched U.S. energy ETF, gained 2.10% to end at $45.65. 5
Exxon Mobil rose 1.92% to $122.65 on Friday. Zacks Equity Research said its latest consensus calls for $1.63 in earnings per share on about $85.13 billion in revenue in the next report. 6
Chevron, which has joint ventures in Venezuela, gained 2.29% to $155.90 in the last session. Its shares are likely to sit at the center of investor debate over how quickly Venezuelan barrels might return to broader trade channels, and on what terms. 7
ConocoPhillips jumped 3.30% to $96.70 at Friday’s close. The stock often trades as an oil-price proxy, meaning it tends to move with crude because most of its earnings come from producing oil and gas. 8
Occidental Petroleum rose 3.06% to $42.38. Smaller U.S. producers and oil-linked names can amplify moves in crude, and traders will be watching whether that pattern reappears early in the week. 9
Refiners can react differently if crude prices spike, because they buy oil as an input and margins can tighten until fuel prices catch up. Valero Energy’s shares closed at $165.31 on Friday, its investor site showed. 10
Monday’s direction will likely come down to the first move in crude futures when electronic trading restarts Sunday night. If traders add a risk premium — extra pricing for potential supply disruption — upstream producers, the companies that pump oil, usually benefit first.
Before the next session, investors will look for confirmation that export terminals and shipping lanes are operating, not just wells and refineries. Any U.S. statement on sanctions enforcement, the December tanker blockade or the status of seized cargoes would set the tone for energy shares early in the week.
Venezuelan officials condemned the intervention as soldiers patrolled parts of Caracas, while U.S. allies and regional leaders split between support and criticism, Reuters reported. That political response adds another layer of headline risk for oil stocks, particularly if it spills into production areas or ports. 11
Once markets settle, investors face a second catalyst: fourth-quarter earnings. Nasdaq’s earnings pages list Exxon and Chevron as estimated to report on Jan. 30, with traders focused on production guidance, capital spending and buyback pace. For crude, the $60 level for Brent and $55 for WTI are round-number markers traders tend to watch after Friday’s settlement. 12
