Shares declined 1.0% to $7.78 ahead of the open on Wednesday.
Four-week orders represent 13.3% of the company’s target revenue for 2026.
The number of outstanding shares has increased by 49.7% since December 31.
Shares of Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS edged down 1.0% to $7.78 before Wednesday’s opening bell. Nasdaq’s regular session had yet to begin. The stock retained the majority of its gains from the previous week’s rally.
Investor focus has moved from demand to conversion. Orders scheduled over the next four weeks now account for 13.3% of the revenue goal for 2026. However, the total number of shares outstanding has grown by 49.7% since the end of last year.
This results in a more stringent per-share benchmark. Both revenue and margins are required to grow at a quicker pace than the equity base.
Measure
Reported figure
Investor comparison
New orders during four weeks
$70 million
13.3% of 2026 target
Projected 2026 DZYNE revenue
$191 million
36.4% of target
Shares in circulation as of Dec. 31
380.8 million
Base
Shares in circulation as of July 23
569.9 million
Up 49.7%
Equity value at market close on July 28
$4.48 billion
8.5 times target sales
Initial estimate based on the $7.86 closing share price and the share count as of July 23. The $525 million revenue number comes from management guidance, not official reported sales.
Ondas finished last week at $7.80, gaining 19.5% since July 17. In premarket trading on Wednesday, shares were about unchanged from Friday’s close. Trading volume dropped to 62.0 million on Tuesday, down from 176.2 million recorded on July 22.
Orders placed on July 22 included ground systems, border security solutions and anti-drone devices. The contracts further involved surveillance as well as precision-strike technologies. Ondas did not specify delivery timelines or details on when the revenue would be recognized.
Chief Executive Eric Brock described the pace as “a strong demonstration of our execution.” Ondas stated that the awards increased visibility regarding production and delivery. Ondas Inc.
DZYNE Technologies, recently purchased by Ondas, secured an Australian counter-drone contract valued at $6.9 million. Ondas reported that over 3,000 Dronebuster systems are currently in operation globally.
DZYNE drives the improved forecast. Ondas now projects $191 million in revenue and positive EBITDA from the division this year. The firm’s revenue target has climbed from $390 million to a minimum of $525 million.
Ondas spent $875.8 million to acquire DZYNE, paying $200 million in cash along with roughly 85 million Ondas shares. Of those, 45 million shares are subject to a lock-up period lasting six months.
Ondas awarded 500,000 restricted stock units and 1.5 million options, with vesting scheduled across three years and contingent on ongoing employment.
The present target is ten times higher than the projected 2025 revenue of $50.7 million. The figure comprises DZYNE and Omnisys, but does not factor in the anticipated contributions from Cyberhawk. The Cyberhawk deal is anticipated to complete in the third quarter.
As of Tuesday’s close, the SEC’s most recent share count pointed to an equity value of $4.48 billion. That is equivalent to a preliminary 8.5 times the company’s projected 2026 sales goal. The figure represents a forward-looking multiple that relies on acquisitions.
According to FactSet, there are nine Buy recommendations and an average price target of $19.81. Analysts still forecast a second-quarter loss of $0.10 per share. Price targets span from $16 up to $25.
On Friday, the company announced a new investment in FPF Defense, without revealing the sum involved. According to the corporate calendar, there are no planned events for the next week. FactSet continues to indicate August 17 as the date for the release of second-quarter earnings.
Risks: The timeline for order conversion has not been made public. Integration with DZYNE may fall short of margin goals set by management. Acquisition shares that are currently restricted could be available for trading after a six-month lockup.
Reported revenue serves as the next proof point rather than another booking headline. Per-share advancement will hinge on conversion, margins and disciplined share management.
What is ONDS's current trading level, and to what extent is its valuation considered elevated?
ONDS settled at $7.86 on July 28 and traded close to $7.78 before markets opened on Wednesday. The share price stands 48.6% lower than its 52-week peak of $15.28, but is 341.6% higher than the 52-week low of $1.78. As of Tuesday’s close, the company's 569.8 million outstanding shares give it an equity value of $4.48 billion. That figure is about 8.5 times the company’s $525 million sales goal set by management.
Will the recent $70 million in orders significantly impact the outlook?
Ondas disclosed $70 million in fresh orders over the past four weeks, a total that includes the previously announced $6.9 million contract from Australian Defence. Previously, Ondas reported over $150 million in second-quarter order activity. These order totals should not be combined automatically, as reporting periods could overlap. The company has not released details regarding the timing of revenue recognition, cancellation policies, or contract profit margins.
How challenging will it be to meet the revised $525 million revenue goal?
Management has raised its 2026 revenue target to at least $525 million from a previous goal of $390 million. The updated guidance includes DZYNE and Omnisys, but does not account for Cyberhawk. Revenue in the first quarter was $50.1 million, leaving Ondas with a minimum of $474.9 million to achieve over the remaining three quarters. This equates to an average of $158.3 million per quarter, though revenue recognition may fluctuate.
What does DZYNE contribute, and what was Ondas' purchase price?
DZYNE’s deal closed on July 2, reflecting a stated value of $875.8 million. Ondas paid roughly $200 million in cash and committed to issue 85 million shares. DZYNE projects $191 million in revenue for 2026 and more than $300 million for 2027. The company reported a backlog of $111 million and a three-year pipeline totaling $1.5 billion. These figures are management projections, not audited financials from Ondas.
What further dilution might shareholders potentially encounter?
DZYNE issued 40 million shares directly following the deal's completion. An additional 45 million shares are set for issuance on January 4, 2027, representing around 7.9% of the current market-data share total. As of March 31, Ondas reported 195.5 million warrant shares, along with 109.5 million shares classified as contingently issuable at the quarter's close. Not every security listed may ultimately convert into outstanding shares.
Did Ondas actually turn a profit in the first quarter?
Ondas posted first-quarter GAAP net income of $361.2 million overall. However, the company recorded an operating loss of $42.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA remained negative, with a loss of $10.9 million for the quarter. The bulk of reported profit came from a $389.5 million noncash warrant gain. As a result, the $0.56 diluted EPS did not indicate operating profitability.
What is the current strength of the balance sheet following the latest acquisitions?
As of March 31, Ondas reported $1.48 billion in cash, restricted cash, and short-term investments. That total does not account for recent major deals and investments. The DZYNE purchase used around $200 million in cash, while a completed Cyberhawk deal would consume approximately $119 million. Ondas' current liquidity position will remain unclear until the June-quarter balance sheet is released.
What are the potential contributions from Cyberhawk, and is the acquisition expected to be finalized?
Cyberhawk’s acquisition is projected to complete in the third quarter, pending required approvals. The deal is valued at approximately $125 million, with around 95% payable in cash. Cyberhawk anticipates revenue above $45 million for the fiscal year ending March 2027 and holds a reported backlog of $95 million. Its revenue has not been included in Ondas’ current $525 million target. A delay in closing would decrease any recognized contribution for 2026.
Might elevated short interest trigger another pronounced shift?
As of the July 15 settlement date, short interest stood at 229.6 million shares, accounting for about 44.1% of the company’s public float. This marked an increase of 16.2% from June 30, with days-to-cover hovering around 2.7. Such positioning can intensify both upward moves and sharp declines in the stock, though it does not ensure a squeeze will occur.
When is Ondas scheduled to announce second-quarter earnings, and what are the key developments to watch?
Ondas has yet to disclose a confirmed date for its second-quarter earnings. No events are listed on its investor calendar at this time. External forecasts suggest a possible window between August 11 and August 17, but these dates remain unofficial. In the coming week, investors will monitor for updates on earnings scheduling and developments in the Cyberhawk deal. They are also looking for signs that order intake is converting into reported revenue.
Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and technology to economic developments affecting global markets. He graduated from Humboldt University of Berlin and worked in investment research and market analysis before becoming a financial journalist.
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