New York, July 10, 2026, 07:39 EDT
Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS closed Thursday at $7.65, rising 4.1% from Tuesday. The number that matters after the DZYNE Technologies deal is about $4.70 billion in equity value, based on 85 million new shares. Nasdaq opens regular trading at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
The share count is relevant here since the acquisition payment comes in two parts. Per the prospectus, Ondas had 529,838,610 shares out before the deal closed, then issued 39,999,998 shares, taking the current basic total to about 569.8 million. A further 44,999,998 shares will come due January 4, 2027, after a six-month lock-up stops holders from selling earlier.
The first tranche at Thursday’s close gives Ondas an implied equity value of $4.36 billion. With deferred shares, that figure goes up to $4.70 billion—about nine times the company’s new 2026 revenue goal of at least $525 million. The forward sales multiple is equity value over projected annual sales; it doesn’t factor in cash, debt or other securities.
| Valuation measure | After closing tranche | After deferred DZYNE tranche |
|---|---|---|
| DZYNE consideration shares included | 40.0 million | 85.0 million |
| Total share count | 569.8 million | 614.8 million |
| Equity value at $7.65 per share | $4.36 billion | $4.70 billion |
| Equity value vs. $525 million revenue target | 8.3x | 9.0x |
The post-DZYNE number is for acquisition shares only. Options, warrants, RSUs, and other possible dilution aren’t included.
There’s also a short-term trading issue here. The resale registration lets DZYNE sellers offer up the 40 million closing shares, but each seller can only sell up to 10% of the daily trading volume. Registration just makes the stock legally sellable; it doesn’t show whether any shares moved. The filing also noted that financial statements and pro forma accounts for the acquired business would come in an amendment inside the standard 71-day period.
Ondas moved around 61.4 million shares Wednesday, then 82.7 million on Thursday. For both sessions, if sellers maxed out their allowed limit at the full 10%, only about 14.4 million shares from the registered sellers could have been sold, which is 36% of the registered block. The real figure, if there is one, hasn’t been made public.
| Session | ONDS trading volume | Implied 10% seller ceiling | Ceiling as share of 40 million block |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 8 | 61.4 million | 6.1 million | 15.3% |
| July 9 | 82.7 million | 8.3 million | 20.7% |
| Two-session total | 144.1 million | 14.4 million | 36.0% |
Turnover on Thursday accounted for roughly 14.5% of the current post-close share count. That’s a large amount of stock changing hands, but there’s no telling who was buying or selling. Shares rose in both sessions after a 6% drop Tuesday.
Ondas’ post-DZYNE equity value of $4.70 billion still trails AeroVironment Inc. NASDAQ:AVAV at about $7.38 billion and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. NASDAQ:KTOS, which sits at around $8.76 billion. Both companies sell unmanned defense systems, so they’re product-market peers. But differences in revenue mix, margins, and where their programs are in the lifecycle make the comparisons rough.
Needham’s Austin Bohlig trimmed his Ondas target to $19 from $23 on Tuesday but stayed at Buy. The cut, a 17.4% drop, is about the same size as a 16% boost in Ondas’ share count after all the DZYNE deal shares are taken into account. The report doesn’t say share dilution is the reason.
Ondas put a value of $875.8 million on the DZYNE deal, which works out to about 4.6 times the $191 million in company-projected revenue for 2026. CEO Eric Brock said DZYNE brings “substantial scale and revenue growth.” Highlander Partners chief Jeff Hull said most of the compensation was in stock, adding his firm believes in the “long-term value of the combined platform.” Ondas sees DZYNE turning EBITDA-positive in 2026 — that’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Ondas Inc.
The problem is that current trading liquidity might show short-term trades, not real confidence in the outlook. Investors haven’t seen full acquired-company numbers yet, so they’re mostly in the dark about DZYNE’s revenue strength, customer mix, working-capital demands and cash flow. A miss on sales or margins, constant selling, or more funding for deals could put pressure on the forward sales multiple, which sits near nine times.
Friday is set to test if ONDS can hold its two-day bounce—and if buyers can keep soaking up shares at this pace. Traders will watch to see if the price holds up or gives way before DZYNE financials land and the stock’s value gets hit with new numbers.
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