New York, July 13, 2026, 11:11 EDT
Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS was down about 2.3% to $7.09 late Monday morning. At that level, the roughly 85 million shares going to DZYNE Technologies’ sellers were valued near $602.7 million. That’s about $72.8 million below the $675.48 million listed in a regulatory filing.
The drop comes after six straight weeks of losses, with the stock closing at $7.26 Friday, the lowest in seven months. Sellers of DZYNE get less at current prices, but the deal keeps the number of Ondas shares being issued fixed — that’s what matters most to current holders.
Ondas had roughly 529.8 million shares ahead of the DZYNE shares. Almost 40 million were delivered at closing, with another 45 million set to be issued Jan. 4. That puts the basic post-deal share count at about 614.8 million, up 16%. This pushes dilution, cutting the stake each older share represents. The first chunk is registered for resale, so Ondas won’t get any money from those sales. Sellers also have a daily sales limit, capped at 10% of trading volume.
Ondas is betting big on DZYNE for growth. The company is looking for DZYNE to bring in $191 million in revenue in 2026 and more than $300 million in 2027, with EBITDA turning positive this year. After buying DZYNE, Ondas raised its 2026 revenue target to at least $525 million, up from at least $390 million. CEO Eric Brock pointed to DZYNE’s “strong and growing margin profile.” Highlander Partners CEO Jeff Hull said his firm took most of its payment in shares, saying it believes in “the long-term value of the combined platform.” Ondas Inc.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. NASDAQ:KTOS traded at a market cap of roughly $8.58 billion at Monday’s close, with projected fiscal 2026 revenue between $1.70 billion and $1.76 billion. AeroVironment Inc. NASDAQ:AVAV, which makes drones and counter-drone gear, had a market value near $7.17 billion and is forecasting fiscal 2027 revenue between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion.
| Company and share-count basis | Equity value | Annual revenue benchmark | Rough equity value/sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ondas, current share count | $4.04 billion | At least $525 million, 2026 | 7.7x on guidance floor |
| Ondas, post Jan. 4 DZYNE shares | $4.36 billion | At least $525 million, 2026 | 8.3x on guidance floor |
| Kratos | $8.58 billion | $1.73 billion midpoint for fiscal 2026 | 5.0x |
| AeroVironment | $7.17 billion | $2.175 billion midpoint for fiscal 2027 | 3.3x |
The comparison is blunt—market cap over revenue, no cash or debt tweaks, and the companies report on different cycles with different business models and profits. Even so, the premium suggests the past six weeks’ pullback hasn’t erased bets that Ondas can turn its string of deals into faster sales growth.
The stock price swing altered what the sellers stand to pocket, but it didn’t change the merger agreement:
| DZYNE consideration or metric | Regulatory or announced value | Value at $7.09 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock, 84,999,996 shares | $675.48 million | $602.65 million | Fell $72.83 million |
| Cash | About $200 million | About $200 million | No change |
| Total marked consideration | About $875.48 million | About $802.65 million | Lost $72.83 million |
| Consideration/DZYNE 2026 revenue | 4.58 times | 4.20 times | Down 0.38x |
The $73 million cut comes out of the sellers’ side, with no cash headed back to Ondas. Existing shareholders still take on the full dilution from the new shares. The key issue is the same: can DZYNE hit sales and margin growth fast enough to counteract the extra shares?
Long-term numbers still don’t match up well. Zacks wrote Friday that Ondas is up 261% for the year, yet GuruFocus put the rebound at 2.13% as of July 9. Those gains look small next to six straight weeks of losses and another drop Monday.
But there’s still big risk on the downside. The $525 million number is just management’s guidance. Ondas hasn’t filed DZYNE’s financials or combined pro formas yet, and said it plans to get those into the SEC within the 71-day window. If orders slow, margins drop, integration costs rise or some sellers cash out, investors might look to price this off peer multiples instead. At 5x that $525 million floor, equity would land near $2.63 billion, or about $4.27 per share on a fully issued basis. That’s about 40% lower than Monday. It’s just a scenario, not a target.
The real question now isn’t about military demand for autonomous systems, but if Ondas can actually turn its acquisitions into sales, cash flow and profits before the next DZYNE share tranche comes in January. For now, without the full accounts, it’s clearer to see the dilution than any reward.
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