NEW YORK, July 26, 2026, 15:02 EDT — With U.S. markets closed ahead of the weekend, PayPal holds on to nearly two-thirds of its previously reported bid premium.
PayPal finished Friday trading at $56.15, which is 7.7% below the $60.50 proposed offer.
The stock declined by 0.7% last week but was still trading 18.5% higher compared to its close before the report on July 14.
Analysts are expecting second-quarter earnings of $1.28 per share on Tuesday, according to preliminary consensus.
PayPal Holdings NASDAQ:PYPL heads into earnings week retaining nearly two-thirds of the premium tied to reported takeover speculation. As of Friday’s close, the shares preserved 66.9% of the difference between $47.37 and the proposed $60.50.
This results in $4.35 per share still available. The leftover spread stands at 7.7%, not accounting for timing and completion risk.
The second-quarter report due Tuesday could influence both factors. Robust earnings may bolster demand, while weaker numbers might favor bidders.
The share price declined by 0.7% over the past week, ending at $56.15. Trading volume reached 11.8 million on Friday, which is roughly 30% under the 65-day average.
Measure
Value
Friday’s closing price
$56.15
Change for the week
-0.7%
Proposal reported
$60.50
Spread left
$4.35 / 7.7%
Gross premium from bid realized
66.9%
Median target by analysts
$48.00
Q2 EPS consensus (preliminary)
$1.28
The scorecard is based on regular-session prices, disclosed proposal details, and the latest analyst forecasts.
Truist Financial NYSE:TFC announced the latest rating shift on Friday. Analyst Matthew Coad raised his recommendation on PayPal from Sell to Hold.
He increased the price target to $57 from $44. Coad described Stripe’s interest as “real,” but cautioned that turning the business around independently is still challenging. Barchart.com
Stripe and Advent International made a proposal of $60.50 per share, people with knowledge of the situation said. The bid is backed by about $50 billion in funding from banks.
The bidders are set to have equal ownership. PayPal’s board views the offer as insufficient, according to sources with knowledge of the discussions.
William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey said there could be potential for a higher offer. “We do not think PayPal’s new CEO will likely embrace what could be viewed as a low-ball offer,” he said. Jeffrey noted that bidders might go as high as $70. Reuters
Focus turns to earnings as the next key hurdle. Analysts’ initial consensus expects second-quarter EPS at $1.28.
The estimate was $1.34 three months earlier. The 4.5% reduction eased Tuesday’s threshold.
Revenue for the first quarter climbed 7% to $8.35 billion. Payment volume on a currency-neutral basis grew 8%, reaching approximately $464 billion.
Branded checkout volume increased by only 2%. Transaction-margin dollars, an indicator more closely tied to monetized growth, climbed 3%.
PayPal CEO Enrique Lores has split the company into three separate operating divisions. Lores is also aiming for $1.5 billion in cost reductions within two to three years, with plans for the savings to be reinvested by the company.
Friday’s closing price is 17% higher than the $48 median analyst estimate, highlighting how much deal prospects now influence the share price.
Risks: A transaction is not guaranteed. Challenges such as securing financing, navigating regulatory hurdles, potential board opposition, and sluggish checkout expansion might cause PayPal to revert to standalone valuations.
PayPal is set to start its earnings call on Tuesday at 8:00 a.m. ET. Investors will focus on metrics such as checkout growth, margin dollars, and potential strategic insights.
What is the primary driver affecting PayPal shares this week?
PayPal will announce its second-quarter results ahead of Tuesday’s market open on July 28, followed by an earnings call at 8:00 a.m. ET. The stock finished Friday, July 24, at $56.15, rising 0.27%. The week’s main drivers are company earnings and ongoing takeover discussions.
What figures are analysts on Wall Street forecasting for the second quarter?
Consensus forecasts put earnings per share at around $1.28 and revenue near $8.5 billion. The revenue projections vary by source, with Zacks reporting $8.52 billion and MarketBeat listing $8.47 billion. PayPal has indicated its non-GAAP EPS will be roughly 9% lower than last year's $1.40, signaling approximately $1.27—closely aligning with consensus estimates.
Does the $60.50 bid remain active?
According to Reuters, which cited sources familiar with the matter, Stripe and Advent put forward a $60.50 per share bid. This indicated a valuation for PayPal exceeding $53 billion and included about $50 billion in funding. Stripe, Advent, and PayPal chose not to make any statements. Reuters said PayPal’s board considered the offer price insufficient. The group was still interested, but a deal was not guaranteed.
What is the remaining potential upside compared to the reported offer price?
PayPal closed Friday at $56.15 a share, $4.35 short of the indicated $60.50 offer. The outstanding spread is about 7.7%, reflecting risks tied to financing, regulatory review, timing and deal completion.
Might Tuesday’s earnings influence the result of the takeover?
Reuters reported that bidders might take PayPal’s earnings into account when weighing an increased proposal. Robust results could bolster the board’s argument that $60.50 does not reflect PayPal’s true value. Softer performance may heighten calls to enter talks. There is no assurance of a higher bid.
What makes branded checkout more significant than just the main payment volume?
Branded checkout volume rose just 2% in the first quarter. Total payment volume increased by 11%, or 8% when adjusted for currency changes. This higher-margin business significantly underperformed compared to PayPal’s broader platform. Investors want to see proof that branded growth picked up in the June quarter.
Is PayPal experiencing robust user growth and engagement?
The number of active accounts edged up 1% to 439 million, though this marked a decrease of 0.2 million from the prior quarter. Payment transactions climbed 7% to 6.5 billion. The trailing transactions per active account slipped 1% to 58.7. When payment-service-provider activity is excluded, this engagement metric rose 6%. Overall, results were mixed.
Is there potential for margins and full-year guidance to strengthen?
Revenue for the first quarter rose 7%, while non-GAAP operating margin decreased by 229 basis points, resulting in an 18.4% margin. Transaction margin dollars saw a modest 3% rise to $3.81 billion. PayPal forecasts full-year non-GAAP EPS ranging from a slight decline in the low single digits to marginally positive. The comparison baseline stands at $5.31 for 2025.
What impact could the $1.5 billion cost-cutting programme have?
PayPal aims for gross annualized run-rate savings of at least $1.5 billion. The company’s leadership anticipates achieving these savings within two to three years. The initiative relies on AI, automation, and a streamlined operating structure. According to management, the savings will be redirected to fuel growth, a move that could restrict margin expansion in the short term.
What is the most apparent downside risk if no agreement is reached?
PayPal surged almost 17% following a Reuters report on the potential acquisition. The $56.15 closing figure on Friday likely reflects some chance of a deal occurring. If negotiations fail and earnings disappoint, part of that premium may be erased. The potential decline is still unclear. The company's standalone outlook will be clarified with Tuesday’s earnings.
Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and semiconductors to AI and the broader global markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and worked in investment analysis before becoming a financial journalist. Follow Jerzy Lewandowski on Google News.
